I Want A Fool-Proof System…And I Need It NOW!

I received an e-mail from a long-time friend named Dave in Western New York this morning.  He plays at the Turning Stone Casino just outside of Syracuse.  It’s a great casino with fine restaurants, incredible entertainment, a stunning hotel, very friendly staff and a wide variety of craps tables in two different casinos.  No, this isn’t a promo for the Onieda Nation who operate that place.  Rather, it is the backdrop to his urgent request.  He plays there regularly and occasionally wins; but more often he loses, so I put him into the “normal casino victim” category. 

I won’t reprint all of the sordid details of his e-mail, but the key feature was that he pleaded ” I Want a Fool-Proof System…And I Need it NOW!  He said that he was tired of losing, and to restore his faith, he needed a sure-fire method.  I initially wrote back and said that praying at the altar of the craps table was probably the wrong place to regain faith, let alone replenish your wallet unless you really know what you are doing.  Dave is not a Precision-Shooter, and he hardly knows the difference between preferred stock and livestock, so I wasn’t about to teach him over cyber-space, and I told him so.  He immediately e-mailed me again and beseeched me in the whiniest voice that printed words could find, that he desperately wanted something that would work absolutely, positively just once with a $1,000 session bankroll.

I’ve got to tell you, I went out to the railing of the motor-yacht that I’m on, leaned over the rail and just gazed really hard off into the distance.  Maybe I was trying to sight something that wasn’t really there.  Perhaps if I squinted and strained, I might recognize something that drove ancient mariners to far away lands that they were not sure even existed. 

My earnings depend almost entirely on my ability to Precision-Shoot the dice in a way that de-randomizes them to a point where it is not only a positive-expectation game, but to where craps is my sole source of a very ample income.  Dave was looking for something completely different.

I came up with something that APPEARED to fit Dave’s needs, wants and desires.

• It requires a $1,000 bankroll (actually $1,003 so Dave will have to skip his morning coffee & donut). It has over a 50% chance of winning on just the first $26 bet.
• It is paid out at more than even money.
• He could use it making $1 bets even when the posted minimum is $5.
• The bets are allowed in any casinos.
• It doesn’t depend on factors like unlimited playing time or bankroll.
• It is easy enough so even Dave can use it.

There’s good news, better news, great news, bad news and worse news.

• The good news is I came up such a system, but the concept is nothing new.
• The better news is that I’m going to send it to Dave for free.
• The great news is that I’m going to share it with you right now.
• The bad news is that the system shouldn’t work, but does work most of the time.
• The worse news is that sometimes it will not work at all, and you risk losing your entire session stake.

Here’s the method…and it certainly isn’t a system:

• We start out counting rolls between the appearance of 12 (call it what you will: Midnight, All the Spots, All the Dots, Big Daddy in the Rice Paddy, Crappus Maximus, Fullest Craps, the Biggest Steamiest Pile of Crap, etc.).
• After 25 rolls without the 12 appearing, bet $1 on the 12.
• Continue that $1 bet for the next 25 rolls (1 to 26).
• The probability of winning each individual bet is 2.8 percent (1 out of 36) and the payoff is 30-to-1.
• The probability of collecting $30 and getting back your $1 at least once in twenty-six tries is 52 percent.
• If you hit in the first series of bets, you continue betting.
• Dave has a 52 percent chance of coming out ahead on this hand by $5 to $780.
• Dave has a 48 percent chance of losing $26.
• If it still hasn’t hit after the first 26 tries, then bet $2 on the 12 for 16 more rolls (27 thru 42).
• If the 12 hits during this or any subsequent series, stop betting and start counting the non-12 rolls again until you reach 25, and then start with $1 again.
  
  Then follow this chart until it hits:
  • Bet $3 for 10 more rolls (43 thru 53)
  • Bet $4 for rolls (54 thru 61)
  • Bet $5 for rolls (62 thru 67)
  • Bet $6 for rolls (68 thru 71)
  • Bet $8 for rolls (72 thru 79)
  • Bet $10 for rolls (80 thru 85)
  • Bet $12 for rolls (86 thru 90)
  • Bet $15 for rolls (91 thru 95)
  • Bet $20 for rolls (96 thru 102)
  • Bet $25 for rolls (103 thru 107)
  • Bet $30 for rolls (108 thru 113)
  • Bet $40 for rolls (114 thru 119)
• If the 12 has not hit in these 144 rolls, go home Dave, and thank God that you still have a real job.

What does all of this mean?   144 rolls is four times the 36 possibilities on the dice.  There is no guarantee that the 12 will appear in that period.  There is no guarantee that the $1,003 bankroll will be returned to your pocket, instead of being sucked in and absorbed by the box-man’s stacks of casino chips.

Why does this method work most of the time?  Here’s a hint.   The more attempts that are made to roll a 12, combined with the mildly progressive wagers, increase the chance that Dave will still be in the game when the 12 finally appears.  If the 12 appears during his betting, he has a guaranteed profit.

Here’s a table that simplifies the approach:

Chance of at least one hit in multiple tries
when the probability of winning on a single try is 10 percent

I’ll let you know what happens to Dave, if he’s still talking and e-mailing to me tomorrow.

Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

By:  The Mad Professor