Flushing Money Down The Random-Roller Toilet
A group of guys spent the weekend gambling in Las Vegas. One of the men won $100,000. He didn't want anyone to know about it, so he decided not to return with the others, and took a later plane home…arriving back at 3 a.m. He immediately went out to his backyard, dug a hole and planted the money in it. The following morning he walked outside and found only an empty hole. He noticed muddy footsteps leading to the house next door, which was owned by a deaf-mute.
On the same street lived a teacher who understood sign-language and was a friend of the deaf man. Grabbing his pistol, the enraged gambler went to awaken the teacher and brought him to the deaf man's house.
"You tell this guy that if he doesn't give me back my $100,000 I'm going to kill him!" he screamed. The teacher conveyed the message to his friend, and the neighbor replied in sign language, "I hid it in my backyard, underneath the cherry tree."
The teacher turned to the man with the gun and said, "He's not going to tell you. He said he would rather die first."
Random-Risk and YOUR Money
Anyone can win money at a casino, but it’s hard to do it most of the time or with any degree of consistency.
I’ll tell you right now that if you want to make consistent, long-term profit from craps, then Precision-Shooting is the only way to do it.
On the other hand, there are good and bad betting methods which when applied to random-rollers will result in relatively predictable, but not entirely stellar results.
So we arrive at the question about HOW to avoid flushing your money down the random-rollers toilet.
Patience vs. Profit
Consider a guy who shoots the dice pretty darn good, but doesn’t have any patience. He buys in with a decent session-amount, but by the time the dice cycle around to him, he’s either down several hundred dollars or tapped out completely.
It doesn’t matter how good his own Precision-Shooting is, because he isn’t usually in the game long enough to let his own Precision-Shooting “out-win” his losses that he endured by betting so much or so frequently on random-rollers.
Viewed another way, he was in the game for too long because he exposed his bankroll to the risks of randomness, instead of focusing his money on his own proven skill.
Simply stated, he losses too much on random-rollers to make up for any profit that his own Precision-Shooting might generate.
Gamblers who bet on most or all random-rollers will occasionally win big, but will usually end up losing much, much more than they win. That is the never-ending lament of gamblers, but not of savvy, disciplined and patient professional Precision-Shooters.
Occasional Wins vs. Consistent Losses
There is an inverse relationship between the percentage of random-rollers that you bet on, and the amount of money that you make in ratio to your starting bankroll.
Simply stated, the more you bet on random-rollers, the less profit you will consistently make from your own Precision-Shooting.
Now don’t get me wrong, I DO make money off of random-rollers, but it certainly is a small percentage of my craps income. It is also an extremely small rate-of-return in relation to the amount of money that I have to expose on the green-felt to obtain it.
We delve into those actual percentages in my Raising Your Consciousness and Fattening Your Wallet - Part II article.
Big “scores” from betting on random-rollers do occur, but their infrequency has a way of eroding bankrolls in a pernicious and cancerous sort of way.
How Random-Rollers Fit Into My Game
Over the past two years, I have gradually eliminated my betting on all but the luckiest or hottest of random-rollers. And surprise, surprise, surprise…my income from craps has actually increased exponentially.
Back in January of 2001, I wrote my first article for Irishsetter. It was called Finding & Profiting From A Precision Shooter.
From that first article, I have long promoted the idea of playing at sparsely-populated tables, and generally avoiding all but the luckiest or hottest of random-rollers.
The strength of that advice is even more evident now, and it plays an ever-increasing role in escalating my own net income.
Uncrowded tables enable the dice to circulate back to your position more quickly and more often.
Uncrowded tables enable you to get into a shooting groove more easily because the wait between your hands is usually much shorter.
Random-rollers will sometimes string together a mega-hand, and you can be sure that I’ll be getting my bets in on those fortuitous events.
More likely, random-rollers, just like unqualified dice-setters, usually offer “temptation without redemption”. Simply, what looks like a “worthy” betting situation, usually turns out to be a short-lived, unprofitable venture that further erodes your bankroll. Random-rollers generally cost you more than they’ll make you.
My Random-Roller Results
I have tracked all of the money that I have bet on random-rollers over the past two years. It is a huge amount of money, and I haven’t got much of a profit (~$17,000 for 2001) to show for it.
My own Precision-Shooting and other similarly-skilled players have generated truly significant amounts of profit to my bankroll (~$400,000+ over the past 12-months).
Lucky or “hot” random-rollers only contribute ~4.4% of my total casino winnings. The balance of my earnings came from my own Precision-Shooting, and that of other skilled shooters.
Here’s the even more ironic part.
The rate-of-return on Exposed Bets versus Net Profit, is where the true measure of Precision-Shooting over Random-Rolling really shines.
My total bets on random-rollers generated a mere 0.8% in profit. That’s a pretty anemic rate-of-return, but nonetheless, it is still an advantage, albeit a small one. What is really scary is the AMOUNT of money that I’ve had to bet to reach that profit figure.
My Current Random-Roller Method
Okay, as pale as those RR-profits are, here’s how I obtained those results:
If the table trend is positive and there haven’t been a string of Point-7-Out throws, then I “consider” the next shooter.
If the random-roller has thrown a strong string of Inside Numbers and NO Horn Numbers (2, 3, 11 & 12), then I may bet $110 Inside ($30 each on 6 & 8, and $25 each on the 5 & 9) for one hit only.
If ANYTHING indicates a break in the rhythm of the shooter or the game itself, such as a distracted shooter, pit pain, dice off of the table, etc., then I turn my bets “Off”. Timing, in life and in craps, is everything.
If the random-roller starts throwing any Horn Numbers; then I also turn them “off”. We could put this down to “superstition”, but to my mind, each additional random roll bringing us one step closer to an inevitable 7-Out.
I only turn them back “On” if and when things have settled down, and he returns to an Inside Number groove. I’m not shy about turning my bets “off” and leaving them off if the left-side (the creative side) or the right-side (the logical side) of my brain is warning me of impending craps danger or bankroll doom.
I listen to both the “caveman” side and the “professor” side of my brain, and I don’t give the greedy bastard who lives elsewhere in my skull a chance to overrule those primitive, yet highly-developed inklings.
I don’t second-guess myself, and I trust my craps-instincts. As a result, I get the satisfaction of seeing my Place-bets with that little plastic “OFF” lammer remain on the layout as all the other bets are swept away. I don’t get a “smug” satisfaction from that as if I’m smarter than anyone else. Instead, I get a feeling of pleasure (from making the correct decision), contentment (from trusting my instincts) and reward (from saving money).
If my bets are working and I get one paying hit on any Inside Numbers; then I take down my 5 & 9, and I regress the 6 & 8 to $12 each. That means no matter what happens, I have at least $11 in profit locked up in my rack. In some cases, I regress my bets to $22 Inside, so that the Inside Numbers are covered for a nickel each.
If I get another hit on my twelve-dollar 6 or 8, I collect my profit; then I look at the then current apparent skill or randomness indicators that the shooter is exhibiting. If he continues to bang away at the Inside numbers, then I’ll leave my bets up, and replace the 5 & 9 from the steady profit that the 6 & 8 is throwing off.
If I’ve regressed to the $22 Inside bet, then I collect and rack every other bet, and I Press every other alternating Inside Number hit. This takes advantage of a hot roll if it develops. If it doesn’t materialize, you have at least paid for your bets, you have locked in a profit, and your bankroll survives ones random-roller.
Otherwise, I turn the bets off, and await the inevitable 7-Out. I don’t feel the need to have money in action on every roll of the dice or for every shooter at the table. If I reach the stage where I feel the insatiable urge to bet; then I know of an excellent non-profit organization who helps problem gamblers. Remember, I am at the craps table to make a profit, not to be entertained.
More than 20 years of craps experience has taught me a thing or two about randomness, trends, luck, skill and the ebb and flow of the game. I have learned to avoid most random-rollers, and to concentrate my money on my own Precision-Shooting.
The random-rollers that I actually bet on have to “prove” themselves first. It’s not magical, it’s not exciting, but the profit is decent enough considering that we are talking about a negative-expectation game where the dice and the shooter are totally random.
So that is it.
That is the principal method that I currently use on random-rollers. It’s not complicated, and it doesn’t contain any “hedges”. It’s simple, it’s straight forward, and it generates a tiny, but steady bit of profit.
Why My Method Works
This RR-approach is all about being ultra-selective with your money. It boils down to:
WHEN to bet, depending on the trend.
WHO to bet on, and avoiding players who are famous for not hitting a PL-Point winner since 1972.
HOW to bet, by using a one-hit, then regress or “off” strategy.
WHY to bet, by using gaming experience instead of greed or “hope” to make my decisions.
WHAT to bet, by using Inside Numbers (18 out of 36 dice possibilities, 50% chance) versus the “7” (6 out of 36 possibilities, 16.6% chance) to give that “one-hit-to-make-a-profit strategy work.
This method is not fail-proof, and like I said previously, I’ve had to put out a lot of bets to squeeze a net profit out of Random-Rollers, but it is a profit nonetheless.
Listen, I can’t always find empty or near-empty tables to play at.
As the dice circle the table, there are occasions where all the positive indicators will get me into the game. In that case, I bet cautiously, and then regress after just one hit.
If the random-shooter gets “lucky” and continues to roll, then I cautiously step-up my bets, and continue to lock-in ever increasing amounts of profit.
Like I said, I don’t bet on every player. Doing so is a sure recipe for disaster at any craps table.
In fact, I bet on about one out of every 8-to-12 random-rollers at my table. It takes patience and discipline, but it pays off by safekeeping my bankroll to use on my own shooting opportunities.
You don’t have to believe in my methods, and you are free to bet your money anywhere you want on the craps layout. It took me a LONG time to realize that random-shooters were not the way to vast amounts of profit…Precision-Shooting is!
Good Luck & Good Skill with all the random-rollers at your table…and in Life.
The Mad Professor