
Regression Avoids
Depression No
matter how good your diceinfluencing skills are, you will generally have more short
(1 to 8 roll) pointcycle hands than you do of the medium (9 to 20 roll) variety. Moreover, you will have even fewer long
(21 to 50 pointcycle rolls), even fewer minimega (51 to 70 rolls) ones, and
finally much a smaller amount of mammoth (70+) pointcycle hands. That
is the nature of craps regardless of your skilllevel.
In
essence it means that most hands will have at least two, three or four
pointcycle rolls in them regardless of their eventual duration, but fewer hands will have
ten, eleven, or twelve rolls in them, again, regardless of their eventual duration. Some
hands do go on to have 20, 30, or 40 pointcycle rolls before the 7 shows up, but each of
them starts out at the roll #1 startingpoint and proceeds from there. When you look at a graph for a SRR8 shooter for
example…
Ø
He’ll
survive the first pointcycle roll approximately 87% of the time.
Ø
He’ll
survive the second pointcycle roll about 76% of the time.
Ø
He’ll
survive the third pointcycle roll around 67% of the time.
Ø
He’ll
survive the fourth pointcycle roll approximately 58% of the time.
Ø
By
the time we get to the tenth pc roll, he’ll have a 26% statistical chance of getting
to his eleventh one.
Ø
On
his twentieth pointcycle roll, he’ll have a 7% chance of emerging from that to make
his twentyfirst pc toss. If
you look at each roll as an independenttrial, then his SRR8 chances of rolling a 7
remains at 1in8 (12.5%) on each and every roll; however the cumulativeeffect
that his SRRrate has on rollduration survivability does not remain static. Now
before anyone tries to tells you that this has anything to do with “due number”
theory; I can state quite emphatically that it does not. Instead, it has everything to do with the reality
of dicethrowing and the expected duration of a given hand based on your SevenstoRolls
Ratio (SRR). For
a randomroller, we never know how long one particular hand will last, but we can
make some general observations about how long most of them will last and
specifically how often a roll will endure to a certain point. Equally, we can do the same for any SRRrate that
is either higher or lower than random, and from there we can map out the likelihood
of your chances of having a 1roll PointthenOut hand or a 50roll pointcycle hand and
everything in between…and that is exactly what we are going to do today. Using SRR To
Determine RollDuration Range In a moment, you
are going to see a chart which shows how each SRR skilllevel will generally fair when the
dice are thrown during the pointcycle. That
is, we are going to look at the prospects of how likely it is for a given shooter to get
up to his 50^{th} pointcycle roll without a handending 7 getting in the way. Before we do
that however, many curious players want to understand how and why the SRRbased 7’s
appearancerate affects each and every subsequent throw that they make…and I’m
happy to provide the answer.
The chance of a
7 showing up on any given roll is determined by each players validated incasino SRRrate,
and that in turn not only determines his expected rollduration, but it also determines
the decayrate of any given hand. For instance, we
know that a randomrollers SRR of 1:6 means that on any given throw there is a 16.67%
chance that it will result in a 7, and an 83.33% chance that it won’t. Now this is the point where most mathguys turn
off their brains and turn on their myopicvision blinders.
They see and understand singleevent independent trials of one throw each,
but they can’t comprehend how SRRrates affect the groupings of more than one throw
in a chain of outcomes. For
example:
Ø
Everyone
understands that a SRR6 randomroller will survive his first pointcycle roll about 83%
of the time, while an SRR8 shooter will survive his first pointcycle roll about 87%
of the time.
Ø
On
the second pointcycle roll, there is a 69% chance that the SRR6 guy will get past
it, while the SRR8 shooter has a 76% chance of surviving.
Ø
By
the third pointcycle roll, the RR will survive this one 57% of the time, while
the SRR8 shooter will get past it 67% of the time.
Ø Though the rollduration/betsurvival rate for both shooters decays with each and every subsequent pointcycle roll that they make, the rate of decline is quite different for each.
Ø
By
the time we get to the twelfth pointcycle roll, there is a 1in9 (11%) chance that the
randomroller will get this far, but a 1in5 (20%) chance that the SRR8 shooter will
still have the dice. Again, the SRR8
shooter might unleash an incredibly long and memorable hand that goes beyond twelve
pc rolls; however there is an 80% (4in5) chance that he won't. Many
players bet like every hand will be THE handoftheday (or the
century), but most times it isn't. That means that their bets are often disconnected from
the reality of their skills. Though their skills are readily apparent, their ability to
harvest a profit from their edge over the house is severely impaired by the way that they bet
their advantage. In
other words... While
their diceinfluencing holds up its end of the advantageplay bargain (by providing an
edge over the casino), their BETTING fails to connect that skill with any level of
consistent profit. The use of
Initial Steep Regressions helps a player bridge that skill/profit gap. We’ve seen
how the SINGLEevent chances of a 7 showing up on any particular roll is 16.67% for a
randomroller; 14.29% for an SRR7 shooter; 12.5% for a SRR8 player and 11.11% for a
SRR9 PrecisionShooter. Now, let’s look
at how the CumulativeOdds against a 7 showing up on a rolltoroll basis
affects his chances of getting to a certain pointcycle roll count:
ISR’s
offer an incredible opportunity to profit from the fattest, most frequently occurring part
of the rollduration expectancycurve. For
example:
Ø
A
randomroller has a 5:1 chance of rolling at least one non7 during the pointcycle
portion of his hand, but his chances of two non7 outcomes in a row drops to 4.2:1. When
you think about the odds of him getting to the tenth pointcycle roll, there is only a
0.9:1 chance that he’ll actually get there.
Ø
An
SRR8 shooter has a 7:1 chance of rolling at least one non7 during the pointcycle
portion of his hand, while his chances of two non7 outcomes in a row drops to 6.1:1. When
you think about the odds of him getting to the tenth pointcycle roll, there still a 2.1:1
chance that he’ll make it.
So
although there is only a moderate difference between those two shooters surviving their first
pointcycle roll (83.33% vs. 87.50%); by the time they get to their tenth roll
there is an everwidening gap (16.14% vs. 26.31%). Again,
the chances of a 7Out occurring on any given roll remains rock solid at 16.67% for the
randomroller, and 12.50% for the SRR8 shooter; but each of those 1in6 (for the RR)
and 1in8 (for the SRR8 shooter) perroll 7’s occurrencerates affects how long, on
average, each player can expect to hold the dice. That brings us
to the cumulativeodds of a non7 roll occurring; for example… ~A
SRR8 shooter is 270% more likely to throw a 20roll hand than a randomroller is, and
450% more likely to throw a 30roll hand. By the time we get to a 40roll expectancy;
there is a 685% difference; and finally, a 2600% disparity between the expectancy of a
SRR6 and a SRR8 shooter having a 50roll pointcycle hand. Still though,
you have to ask yourself; if that huge rollduration difference is enough to keep your
bets at their high starting value for the duration of each hand, or whether you should use
the fattest portion of the rollduration curve to lockin a profit before regressing to a
lowervalue as rollduration expectancy declines. Take a look and
decide for yourself…
One
more thing that I should point out is that, this chart does not include those hands where
you will establish a multiPoint hand that is interspersed with ComeOut 7winners. Rather, it is illustrative of the fact that it is
difficult to have a 50roll pointcycle that is undisturbed by either a PLPoint winner or
a handending 7Out loser. What
To Do With What You’ve Got
One
of the most basic elements of diceinfluencing that players fail to understand is that
their shorthands will always outnumber their longhands...and it is what
they do with the MAJORITY of their hands that determines just how much money they
will earn from an average nonheadlinemaking session. Anyone
can and should make money off of 20, 30, 50 and 70roll hands; but how many players
make consistent profit off of their 2, 3, 4 and 5roll hands? The
simple truth about diceinfluencing is that regardless of how skilled you are, your
pointcycle will always contain a declining number of tosses when you look at your
rollduration outcomes on a chart. Savvy
ISR diceinfluencers profitably exploit the fattest, most frequentlyoccurring portion of
the rollduration curve, while flatbettors hope to get far, far beyond that point. Both
Flatbettors and ISRbettors can make money off of their SRR8 skills. The ISRuser gets his profit more
consistently and much earlier, while the Flatbettor gets it less frequently and quite a
bit later. But
at the end of the day, how you profitably exploit your advantage over the house is
entirely up to you. Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor

