Goodbye
Canada
Hello Love Canal
No,
thats not the name of my latest porno movie
rather, it captures the transformed
state of mind that a player goes through when he leaves the Honeymoon Capital of the World
(Niagara Falls, Ontario), and enters Niagara Falls, New York (the former unofficial
toxic-waste capital of the continental U.S.).
Though
those two localities share the same name as well as the thundering and mighty falls (often
referred to as a newlywed-brides second biggest disappointment on her honeymoon);
the two cities could not be more different.
Niagara
Falls, NY has had the unenvied and unfortunate reputation for the last couple of decades
as the most toxic community in the U.S. Though
Im pretty sure the Chamber of Commerce didnt specifically set out to acquire
that reputation, it kind of fell on them when thousands of previously unattributed deaths
(including that of countless children) and umpteen hideous birth-defects were traced
directly to the mélange of chemicals that had been pumped into and stored in the former
Love Canal shipping channel and covered over to make way for suburban subdivisions,
elementary schools, day-care centers, and seniors centers
in other words, a perfect
backyard for your kids to grow up in.
Until
a short time ago, the former Love Canal neighborhoods looked like the abandoned villages
surrounding Chernobyl
only not quite as bucolic. Swing-sets still stood, as did the
homes, churches, schools and fire-stations. Were
it not for the green, brown and reddish chemical magma leachate that relentlessly oozed up
through the ground; this could be Anytown, U.S.A
and apparently a PERFECT place to
build a new casino.
Seneca
Niagara Casino
To
be fair, the Seneca Niagara Casino is not inside the barricaded, worst-contaminated
parts of the area. In fact it is quite a
distance from the nastiest sections of it
which is a lot like saying its
in the NON-peeing end of the pool. Clearly,
a short visit there isnt going to instantly cause you to develop a third eye or
suddenly sprout four arms (without any hands), but its important to note that
theres a good reason that Love Canal doesnt get very many tourists.
On
the other hand, you probably are best advised to drink non-local bottled water unless you
are doing a little collecting of samples for your home-chemistry set and looking for
Strontium, arsenic, dioxins, acrolein, bromodichloromethane,
selenium hexafluoride, pentachlorophenals, cadmium, and of course my favorite
executioner-du-jour (chlorodibenzofurans), along
with 421 other equally appetizing chemicals that are now partially entombed in a plastic
pool-liner type of I-hope-this-low-priced-condom-is-strong-enough
containment-measure that provides folks around here with a warm and comfy EPA blanket that
lets them sleep at night.
The
casino is operated by the Seneca Nation of Indians and is housed within what used to be
the former abandoned Niagara Falls Convention Center. If you think in terms of a
mega-sized, crescent-roofed Quonset-hut with some neon-lights and an endless parade of
slot-machines, youve got a fairly accurate picture.
At
~110,000 square feet, this casino is on par with the size of the Showboat and Resorts in
Atlantic City; Bellagio, Circus Circus, Monte Carlo, and New Frontier in Vegas; the Grand
Casino in Gulfport, or about twice the size of the Gold Strike and Hollywood casinos in
Tunica.
Ventilation
is top-notch and the place is kept cleaner than youd expect for the amount of people
that go through here on an average day.
Free
on-site or near-site parking has been a little tight in the past, but that has eased
somewhat in the two years since it opened. There are heavy local fines for illegally
parked cars (that includes a strongly policed tag-and-tow area). Additional county-run parking is cheap and
accessible.
The
Tables
The Players
The Dealers
Four
twelve-foot craps tables await the eager player. The
dealers run their games with confidence and nearly all of the players are locals.
Ø All
four of their craps tables are beautiful to shoot on.
They arent overly crowded and most players are fairly knowledgeable.
Ø With almost no tourists or out-of-towners, most
players know or at least are familiar with the faces of fellow players.
Ø Youll
usually find the table-minimums set at $5 and rarely above $10. In fact, they are reluctant to raise the
table-limit unless someone specifically asks the Pit Manager to do so. In that case, theyll raise the table-minimum
to $15, but closely monitor it to make sure it stays busy
otherwise they drop it back
down just as quickly. Casino-management
prefers the quantity of players route to make their money instead of
the currently in vogue quality of bet-size route that most other
operators prefer. This has more to do with
their recognition and acknowledgement of the finite number of local players in their
geographic market area than it does with eschewing the current gaming-position
yield-factor philosophy.
Ø Their
box-people, table-game supervisors, pit-managers, and Casino Hosts are mostly top-notch
professionals that could handily fit in at any other gaming jurisdiction without missing a
beat. I have nothing but praise for their
demeanor.
As
I mentioned a moment ago, I like the tables at Seneca.
Ø They
are neutral-rolling layouts that offer low-to-medium backwall-rebounds.
Ø Tight-radius
corners means more flat backwall area and less likelihood that a Passline rolling-lane
toss will errantly hit the curved sidewall/backwall transition-area (instead of a flat
area).
Ø A
low-energy, low-trajectory, minimal backspin throw that initially lands on the free-Odds
area of the Pass-Line (about 2.5 inches past the outer white line where it straightens out
at a 90-degree angle) will bring my dice TO the backwall without any off-axis
rebound. At little harder or a little farther
out on my landing, results in a slightly bigger rebound and rollout.
Ø While
some players complain about the low-lighting levels in this casino, I havent run
into any problem with tracking the dice or clearly seeing their exact facial-outcomes.
A
Word About Pro-Players
Ø Up
until about a year-and-a-half ago, there were less than five talented Precision-Shooters
who sporadically played at Seneca. The
steady round-the-clock crowds and newbie dealers back then, made it a less than ideal spot
to work their dicesetting magic.
Ø With
the lighter crowds and the now-experienced hands that stick-handle the dice these days;
those same players have increased their presence and are occasionally joined by a few more
pros who include the Southern Ontario and Western New York casinos on their regular
playing schedule.
Ø When
you take a really close look at Casino Niagara, Niagara Fallsview Resort, and Casino Rama
on the Canadian side of the border, and combine those advantage-play opportunities with
the ones youll find at Seneca Niagara, Seneca Allegany (which well talk about
in my next Dont-side trip report), and the Turning Stone Resort near Syracuse; you
have a pro-players circuit that (at this current time) endures no heat
no
player hassles
and a fairly unrestricted win-tolerance level. Its an ideal blend-into-the-background
and fly-under-the-radar situation.
Ø When
you widen the catchment area to include Casino Windsor and the three Detroit casinos (MGM
Grand, Greektown and Motorcity) along with the dozen or so Indian Casinos (like Turtle
Creek, Lac Vieux, Obiway, Leelanau Sands, and Little River, plus Chip-In Island, Bay
Mills, and Soaring Eagle) sprinkled throughout the rest of Michigan; a grander
Precision-Shooting circuit starts to shape up quite nicely.
Ø While
theres no guarantee that the current hassle-free dice-influencing circumstances will
stay in this idyllic state, it presently makes for near-perfect advantage-play conditions.
Session
One
It
took a few go-rounds with the dice to get the table-dynamics down correctly.
Its
not that they were hard to adapt to
just the opposite.
I was trying too hard to compensate for what a couple of guys had told me
that Id have to deal with on the recently recovered Seneca tables. They had breathlessly told me that Id need
to radically modify my throw; and so that thought was in the forefront of my mind
when I started shooting.
Instead
of instinctively following the Shooting Notes that I had meticulously compiled for these
tables over the past couple of years; I ignored that in favor of the fresh advice from
those guys. They had said that the tables
needed much more trajectory-height and backspin than previously required. As it turned out, if I had followed my notes (as I
intuitively knew I should have) or even stuck with my normal set of indicative
baseline-evaluation throws to let the table tell me what it needed (instead of
letting another players throwing-dynamic peccadilloes unduly influence me); then my
shooting effectiveness would have been much more efficient much sooner.
In
any event, in my mind it just re-galvanized the idea of sticking to the methods that I
usually use to adapt to pretty much any table, rather than letting anyone elses
opinion unduly prejudice my toss before I even know for sure that the table Im about
to throw on presents a real problem that my base-toss wont be able to
overcome on its own.
In
other words, Ill stick to what I know works
until it doesnt.
In
following their well-intentioned, but faulty advice
On
the first three laps around the table, I knocked off my first DP-Point each time before
coming back with an offsetting DP-winner on the second point. Perhaps Im unfairly putting too much blame
on the well-meaning good-faith advice that those guys gave to me, and not taking enough of
the culpability on myself for failing to re-adapt fast enough to what I instinctively knew
would work.
In
any event, I got things back on track for the rest of that session without shooting myself
in the foot again. It definitely wasnt
one of those, Holy cow, dicesetting sure is easy or Gee, the
Darkside is a good place to make some easy money types of gathering where your
actions convert the unbelievers into joining you on the Darkside. Instead it was a bit of
a slog that took more time to break-even than it did to eek out the tiny (and I do mean
TINY) profit that made its way into my rack.
I
knew I needed a break from the action. I
wanted to put some distance between that session and the slight hangover of regret that I
had about not listening to my own instincts a little sooner.
The
Thunder Falls Buffet was Dr. MPs prescription.
For
a non-Vegas buffet, I give this one a rating of at least 8.3 on my 10-point scale of
edible renown. As an indirect nod to a couple
of southern craps pros who ply their trade here and in direct acknowledgement to a
wider number of players with the same roots; they have collard greens, seafood jambalaya,
BBQ brisket and ribs, cornbread and Cajun chicken as part of their daily ~80 main items
spread. Its also one of the few
casino-buffets where you can make call-ahead reservations for a specific seating-time.
Seneca
Niagara Players Club
Their
regular card gives you an instant discount off of the buffet price, while their
Chairmans Club card gives you express seating at all of their restaurants and access
to their complimentary food-and-beverage Players Lounge.
Ø The
perks for the Chairmans Club are on par with the top-levels of Harrahs Total
Rewards program
only it takes about 8000 LESS hours of play (or ~$170,000 fewer
dollars wagered) to reach the same Platinum/Diamond status as it would at Harrahs.
One
more neat little benefit of being a platinum Chairmans Club cardholder, is that if
you and at least one other C-C member show up to play, and all of their currently-open
craps tables are full; then their Pit Manager or Shift Manager will try their darndest to
get a crew together to staff a new table to accommodate you ASAP. That level of customer-service may be a throwback
to old-school casino operations, but it sure goes over well in my books!
Session
Two
My
second session got off to a much better start than the first one did.
The
table was responding to my dice throws exactly how I wanted them to (and exactly how I
remembered them from all my previous encounters on the same layout) despite the fairly new
felt on the tables.
In
this session I set up my Come-Out action like this:
Ø Using
the S-6 set, my DP-bet equaled my C-O World-bet.
Ø So
I had $25 on the Dont Pass line and $25 on the World-bet.
Ø Concurrent
with that, this set has shown a mild advantage for me on the Hard-4 and Hard-10, so I also
make a $5 working on the Come-out H-4 and H-10 wager. Frankly though, my advantage over this OFTCO
Hardway-wager is quite slim as most of the high-leverage 7:1 payout is absorbed by an
almost equal-appearing number of C-O 7-losers (which means that not only do the HWs
have to be replaced, but so does my flat DP wager). The
only saving grace in the profit-department for this wager is that if it hits, it
establishes a harder-to-repeat PL-Point and the Hardway C-O payment ($35 profit + $10 back
from my now-down H-4 and H-10 wagers) pays for the cost of the lost World-bet. In that it sets an easier-to-7-Out PL-Point of
either 4 or 10, makes the slim margin that these OFTCO HWs produce --- a little more
palatable.
Ø I
still use the traditional S-6 set (with 1/1, 2/5, 6/6 and 5/2 on the primary-faces)
configuration for the entire Come-Out cycle. A
single (one dice-face) on-axis pitch (on one die) in either direction gives me the 1/2,
6/5, 2/1, 6/5 all trays and Yos outcome. While a double-pitch gives me either a
Hard-4, a Hard-10 or a choice of two more 7s.
Ø You
could just as easily modify this approach with a more conservative wagering level by using
a $5 DP-bet, a $5 World-bet, and $1 each on the Hard-4 and Hard-10.
Ø If
any of my Darkside C-O outcomes are a 7...then my World-bet stays at its initial value,
and I return my $25 DP wager along with replacing the two $5 HW-bets on the 4 and 10.
Ø Obviously
I rely heavily on the Horn-numbers to generate a lot of more-than-enough-to-offset-the-cost-of-C-O-7-losers
revenue in order to make this approach work as well as it does.
Let
me add an obvious side-note on the element of intentionally using a 7-dominant set knowing
full well the S-6 has four on-axis DP Come-Out losers on it.
Ø If
a 7 rolls on the C-O, the World-bet is self-sustaining in that its a
push (no gain and no loss), but my DP flat-bet has to be replaced.
Ø I
balance that off with the single appearance of the 2 and 12, along with the double
appearance of the 3 and 11.
Ø With
the high-ratio payouts on each of those Horn-numbers, the sting of having to replace my DP
bet if a 7 or 11 shows up, is also partially offset with the additional even-money revenue
that the 2 or 3 flat-wager DP-winners produce.
Ø More
importantly, the elevated recurrence of back-to-back-to-back high-ratio Horn payouts on
the 2, 3, 11 and 12 more than offsets the cost of having to replace my flat DP wager so
often.
In
addition to that, the appearance of a $5 Hard-4 or Hard-10 not only counterbalances the
base cost of my losing World-bet; but like I said a moment ago, it also sets an
easier-to-avoid PL-Point.
Though
its not a perfect-world scenario, Ive found that the S-6 still generates
net-profit
and does so in spades when I bring in back-to-back-to-back Horn-number
repeaters.
Heres
how I book a progression when I get repeating Horn-outcomes:
Ø If
the first outcome is an 11...I keep the World-bet at its initial level and I replace my
DP-wager. That means that my first hit on an
11 generates a net-profit of $30.
Ø If
the outcome is a 3...I double the World-bet to $50, and maintain the same initial $25 bet
for my DP-wager. That means that the W-B 3
(along with the DP even-money payment) generates a net-profit (after the World-bet is
pressed) of $55.
Ø If
the outcome is a 2 or 12...I once again double the World-bet to $50, but still keep the
same initial bet for the DP-line. That means
that a 2 generates a net-profit (after the World-bet is pressed) of $130, while a 12
generates a net-profit (after the World-bet is pressed) of $105.
On
the very next C-O decision...
Ø If
the outcome is a 7...I keep the same bet for both the World and the DP. If the World is at $50, then it stays at $50, but
I almost always keep my DP base-bet at $25 no matter how large the World-bet grows. Again, this acts to minimize the impact of an
on-axis C-O DP 7-loser. I concurrently
replace the two $5 wagers on the working Hard-4 and Hard-10 whenever a Come-Out 7 rolls.
Ø Though
this may look like a very costly way to get the profit from those six possible on-axis
Horn appearances; six months (approximately 109 days of actual) closely-tracked in-casino
play validates the net-profitability (some would even say, the OUTSTANDING
net-profitability) of this betting-method. However,
let me say right here and now that you have to do your own homework to find out what
betting-approach and set-selection works best for YOU. Obviously everyones mileage will vary.
Ø Please
DO NOT use ANY of my methods without first validating them while using YOUR
own dice-rolling performances and factoring in your own bankroll, current skill-set
and bet-making comfort levels. It is your
money and your responsibility to determine whether or not ANY betting-method is
right for you and your bankroll and your dice-throwing skills. I urge you to use the utmost caution when you are
trying out any new method or betting-approach for the first time.
Ø If
my second Come-Out roll results is an 11; then I replace the DP and increase the
World-bet by one $25 unit.
Ø If
the outcome is a 3...I increase my current World-bet by two more base-units
(of $25 each for a current total of $100 on the World), but I still keep the same initial
$25 bet on the DP.
Ø If
the outcome is a 2 or 12...I increase my current World-bet by three
base-units (a $75 increase).
On
any subsequent Horn-payers, I add one additional unit to the previous scale.
Now...
Ø I
press the World with a further two-unit ($50) increase if the 11 rolls.
Ø I
press the World with a further three-unit ($75) increase if the 3 rolls.
Ø I
press the World with a further four-unit ($100) increase if the 2 or 12
rolls.
As
you can see the required replacement of a lost DP line-bet has less and less significance
as your World-action increases. If I'm
fortunate enough to get another Horn-hit, I do the same "add one unit to the
previous scale" thing, as in
Ø I
press the World with a further three-unit increase if the 11 rolls.
Ø I
press the World with a further four-unit increase if the 3 rolls.
Ø I
press the World with a further five-unit increase if the 2 or 12 rolls.
While
some of the pit-guys at Seneca Niagara do notice when the Horn is repeating more than four
or five times in a row (especially if more than a couple of players are wagering big-money
stakes on it); it hasnt resulted in more than a passing interest to make sure that
the stickman calls out the correct Prop-payments to the base dealer.
The
next progression (if another Horn-number repeats again), looks like this:
Ø I
press the World with a further four-unit increase if the 11 rolls.
Ø I
press the World with a further five-unit increase if the 3 rolls.
Ø I
press the World with a further six-unit increase if the 2 or 12 rolls.
At
this point, your World-bet could reach the $500 mark (using $25 base-units) if youve
had the C-O results that see you using the maximum unit-increase on each one of those
steps (like if the 2 or 12 has been rolling). It
is also the point where you will very likely reach the maximum allowable Horn-bet
payout-level at many casinos.
For
Session Two, the dice were moving around the table pretty quickly, so I had nine turns
with the dice, and managed to hit my final self-imposed-for-this-house C-O
World-bet limit twice.
At
Seneca, the sixth-level of progression is about as close to the comfort/discomfort border
that I allow my World-action to get to. Anything
much beyond $100 each on the 2, 3, 11, 12 and 7 (for a $500 W-B total) is pretty much
where you can see the mid-level pit-management guys start to get a little uncomfortable. Making them squirm is not high on my ego-needs
priority list.
I
took an extended break from playing, and met up with some lifelong associates that live a
far more uncommon life than that of a simple professional craps player like me.
Senecas
Western Door Steakhouse played host to my rabble of plunderers, brigands,
buccaneers and traducers. Obscene amounts of
Milanese Zucca, Campari, clams, Pinot Grigio, beef, buffalo, and Disaronno were
consumed
after which they wanted to gamble. There
was no way I was in any condition to make any reasonably-minded wagers, let alone pick up
the dice with alacrity; so I accompanied them to the tables as an interested but
non-participating observer.
Session
Three
I
decided to dial-down my C-O progression action on the World-bets for this session. I had gotten to my self-imposed max-bet (for this
casino) twice during Session Two, and since I was planning on playing a couple more
sessions, I certainly didnt want to be fouling the dice-influencing
well-of-prosperity for anyone elses future use (including my own).
In
its place I opted for the odds-stretching approach (that we discussed in
Darkside
Journey 5 and
Creating More Shooting Opportunities Part Three),
which is based on an imbalanced (unequal) Doey-Dont DP/PL wager where the
small difference between the two is used to secure additional (higher-multiple) free-Odds.
In
this session, I wagered $50 on the Dont Pass and $25 on the Pass-line. That meant that in a 3x, 4x, 5x-Odds game where
Im normally allowed to use up to 6x-Odds on the full value of my DP wager
I
could actually wager up to 12x the difference between the two line-bets. In other words, with a flat $25 DP bet, Id
be allowed to Lay up to $150 in Odds, but since Im working off of a $50 base-bet
(even though there is only a $25 difference between my PL and DP bet), theyll let me
Lay up to $300 in what is effectively 12x-Odds against the Point.
The
unequal Doey-Dont offset is simply used to reduce the C-O exposure of my DP-money to
an unintentional (but-likely-to-happen-quite-often-while-using-the-7-Dominant-Horn-heavy
S-6 C-O set) 7-loser.
Now
in reality, it isnt really 12x-Odds that I am using (especially if you look
at just the flat DP-bet in total isolation from the PL-bet that I have on the table at the
same time), but keep in mind that for a Darkside player, the Come-Out rolls are the most
treacherous because that is the only time the 7 isnt working in your
favor.
Ø With
that in mind
minimized DP-exposure during the Come-Out cycle and maximized
free-Odds against the PL-Point once it is established
adds up to more money in
my pocket.
Ø My
roll-tracking indicates that I have a strong ability to throw DP-winning 7-Outs once the
Point is established, so maximum-Odds (or in this case, Odds that are stretched way
beyond the obverse of what is posted as the maximum) act to leverage and
multiply the financial benefits of that skill.
So
how do we reconcile the major flaw behind the Doey-Dont, which is the doubled
house-edge against the total of your line-bets, and the risk associated with a C-O 12
where the DP is a push, but the PL loses?
Well,
we know how I handle the C-O rolls in terms of wagering on the World-bet so that goes a
fair distance to explaining how my Come-Out game-within-a-game approach
provides MORE profit to my bankroll with less DP-bet erosion (and also less PL-bet
erosion if the 12 appears) on the Come-Out.
This
Odds-Stretcher approach gives me the higher-than-posted Odds that I want to wager once the
Point has been established; yet doesnt unfairly diminish my Come-Out profitability
by too much of a margin when Im using the S-6 7-dominant C-O set.
Ø Although
this unequal Doey-Dont approach does dilute a bit of the World-bet net-profit that I
derive from the 2, 3 and 12 hits; it doesnt hurt as much when a C-O 7 or 11 appears.
Ø Further,
it more than makes up for that slightly diminished W-B 2, 3 or 12 profit (what I would
term the Doey-Dont World-bet Paradox), by delivering a
high-probability Lay-Odds payoff once the Point is established and I throw a DP-winning
7-Out.
Before
You Blow the Circuit-Board on Your Calculator
I
clearly understand that that kind of fuzzy logic may seem a little tainted to those who
live and die strictly by the math of the game; but from a Precision-Shooters standpoint, I
like the level of profit that the Odds-Stretcher approach brings to my rail-space.
Clearly
the math still has to factor in to any wager that a skilled Precision-Shooter makes, but
obviously so does his dice-influencing skills.
Ø It
does no good to make all kinds of bets if you only have the advantage over a few.
Ø My
approach sees me making wagers on the bets that I know I have a good chance of hitting
and laying off those that either dont give me the advantage
or dont
give me a big enough sustainable advantage to make steady money from it.
For
me, the Doey-Dont Odds-Stretcher lets me use my dice-influencing
talents to make money off of the Come-out cycle of throws (with LESS damage from the C-O
7) as well as more money from the Point-cycle series because of the way-beyond-posted
allowable-Odds.
To
my mind, it gives me the best of both worlds.
Though
its far from being a perfect approach; to validate its efficacy, I only have to look
at the steadily redeeming revenue that it has consistently generated since I started using
it.
Clearly,
there may be much better ways to skin this particular cat, but I havent found it
yet.
This
is a good spot to share the following with you:
The
You may have just won $350, but it cost you 14-cents more than it should have
Debate
Dear
MP:
Im
writing today to correct an apparent math error in your recently published Shooting
From the Don'ts- Part V article.
A
Doey-Dont does not increase your effective Odds, because, contrary to common belief,
the Doey-Dont bets do not actually offset the House Advantage on each line bet.
People think the offsetting Line bet gives them 0% risk on their $10 Dont Pass bet,
when in fact it gives them DOUBLE the riskof 2 x $10 Line bets, instead of just one.
The
key is the Bar-12, which is the ENTIRE source of the House Advantage on a flat line bet.
And the Doey-Dont does nothing to eliminate that House Advantage; it merely doubles
it.
So,
in reality your 5x Odds on the $10 DP bet become, in effect, 2½ times odds on the $20
total Doey-Dont.
Heres
how the math works: Theres about a 1.4% House Advantage on a $10 flat Dont
Pass bet, for an expected value of -14 cents on the wager. Your 5x Odds lets you pile on
$50 in potential winnings for free (ignoring the effects of volatility, losing
streaks, and the poor quality of shooting). So, you have $60 in potential winnings now for
that same 14-cent gambling cost.
So
your actual odds drops from 1.4% on the flat Line bet, to about 0.3% on the DP with 5x
odds.
You
have piled more wagering action on the fixed gambling cost of the flat DP bet.
A
Doey-Dont offsetting Pass Line bet does not improve this cozy dynamic, but instead
just adds another 14-cent Line-bet gambling cost.
Your Pass Line bet can now lose to a Come-out 12, while of course the DP-bet
is barred and wont offset the loss.
That
is, you have the same 1.4% House Advantage on EACH $10 flat bet with a Doey-Dont.
Its actually a good bet for the House, while your total free Odds
dont increase to offset the greater flat Line bets cost. So, your net Odds
advantage goes down.
So,
putting more chips on the Line, in EITHER direction, relative to a fixed amount of Odds
actually LOWERS your maximum odds. It does not raise them, because your line-bet risk
versus House Advantage is doubled, not offset, by the Doey-Dont and that bet is
costing you 14-cents more than it has to.
Well,
I hope I have been confusing enough here to sound authoritative.
Lets
be clear that I never said that using the Odds-Stretcher method would lower the
house-edge.
Rather,
I said that for the accomplished dice-influencer, this approach was an effective way (but
certainly not the only way) to leverage his Darkside Precision-Shooting skill (by
using higher-than-posted effective Odds) as a skill-multiplier, and thereby
turn that increased Odds-leverage into more profit.
Now
to be completely fair; everything that that sharp writer pointed out
is absolutely
correct.
Clearly
the house-edge on a Doey-Dont is double what it would be with just one or the other
of those line-bets (and I did mention that fact when I originally wrote about it).
Ø For
a random-roller, that is clearly a BAD thing.
In
fact, increasing the house-take on ANY bet isn't a good idea, but it was done to
illustrate the "Odds stretching power" behind the concept.
Ø For
a dice-influencer, the Doey-Dont
Odds-Stretcher
can be a good thing if your shooting is decent enough to overcome the increased 14-cents-per-$10-wagered
disadvantage AND decent enough to weather the volatility of having additional money
on the layout.
Ø Frankly,
the volatility thing concerns me (as it should concern any dice-influencer) much
more than the 1.4-cents-per-dollar-wagered does.
Ø The
underlying cost of any flat-bet remains unchanged no matter how well you can control the
dice or how much Odds you apply against it.
Ø We
first explored this concept way back when in my
Dont
Confuse Me With The Truth article, and obviously it still makes for a
relevant read after all these years.
Ø Equally,
it should go without saying that any players with short-stacked bankrolls SHOULD NOT even
CONSIDER this method until they are properly funded.
In most cases its the volatility and NOT the House Advantage,
that sends gamblers home in a body-bag.
I
also think its important for an aspiring advantage-player to realize how the math
of craps fits into the much bigger picture of dice-influencing (which encompasses not
only de-randomizing the dice but also using matched-to-skill betting-strategies).
Ø If
you dont know where your advantage over the house is
then theres very
little likelihood youll be able to take advantage of it often enough to provide a
sustainable profit-stream.
Ø Math
helps us figure out the wagers we should be making, and how much money we should be
putting on them at any given time.
I
like to keep my approach to the game fairly simple
Ø The
bigger my advantage
the bigger my wager.
Ø The
smaller my advantage
the smaller my wager.
Ø The
more frequent my advantage shows itself; the steeper Ill increase my wager after it
hits.
Ø The less frequent it shows up, the gentler
Ill increase it
if at all.
A
Darkside Doey-Dont simply allows a very effective lowering of Come-out volatility from the dreaded Sheriff (7) and his Deputy (11)
Naturals.
Ø Thereby,
a DP flat-bet loss to Naturals isnt nearly as discouraging as it could be, and...
Ø My
usual C-O action takes the 12-Midnight PL-lemon and turns it into a lemon-scented wad of only
slightly diminished World-bet profit.
I
should also point out that I dont use my Horn-rich S-6 C-O set if the difference
between my PL and DP wagers are too large. As
a result, I sometimes will bypass the C-O Horn-action (especially if there is undue pit
attention to what Ive been doing as far as taking heapin helpins of C-O
Horn profit; and instead focus my C-O efforts on establishing a hard-to-repeat PL-Point
number.
By
using the Odds-Stretcher method, Ive been able to derive MORE profit out of
the same DP-wins. Now you can tell me
that Im losing 14-cents for every $10 net-difference that I put on the line, and
thats just fine.
If
you havent figured it out by now, its the hundreds-of-dollars of winning
DP-with-12x-Odds payoffs that bulk up my bankroll and not the slings, arrows and
humiliation of having 14-theoretical-cents unceremoniously skimmed-off by the math of the
game every time I win.
For
the skilled Darkside-shooter, its the Odds (and in the case of using the Doey-Dont
Odds-Stretcher, its the sheer amount of Odds) that provide the
bulk of my Darkside Point-cycle profit
and NOT the flat DP-wager itself.
If You
Chicken Out or Your Roll Goes Too Long
All
of the Odds-Stretching discussion assumes you have nerves of steel and arent
anxiously affected by having so much Odds-money on the layout.
After
all if you have $50 on the Passline and $100 on the DP in order to lay an effective
12x-Odds (on the $50 PL/DP difference on a 3x, 4x, 5x game); and the mere thought of
putting $600 in Odds-action out on the table makes you break out in hives; then you
probably shouldnt be betting at those levels in the first place.
Nervous
anxiety can play serious havoc with your dice-influencing skills.
Ø If
you are shaking more than Michael Jackson on his wedding night, then there is no way you
should have that kind of money out there.
Ø If
your current bankroll cannot comfortably afford that level of wagering, then theres
no way that your money should be on the layout in the first place.
Ø You
may have a validated-at-home advantage over this bet,
but if you arent properly prepared mentally, physically and financially; then
theres a good chance that YOUR money will soon become THEIR money.
If
at any point during your hand, you feel any anxiety, nervousness or dread start to creep
into your psyche (no matter how well-bankrolled you are); then you can simply remove some
or all of your stretched DP-Odds.
Session
Four
I
spent most of my fourth session just bouncing from table to table. Id sidle up to one table
when the dice
came to me I would set up the unequal Doey-Dont
then once the PL-Point was
established, I maxed-Out the now-STRETCHED Odds, and aim squarely for a quick
7-Out. Sometimes my wish came instantly
true
and sometimes it took more that a dozen or so rolls. I did manage to shoot myself in the foot once
during that session (by rolling a PL-Point winner), but it still proved to be a
significant overall money-maker nonetheless.
The
casino itself was starting to get crowded but the craps pit didnt have more than 25
or 30 players spread across all four open layouts. Id
shoot at one table
park a couple of $1 chips to hold my spot there
mosey over to
the next table and wait for a turn with the dice, and then either return to my primary
table
or seek out another nearly-immediate shooting opportunity at the third or
fourth table.
Ø I
still restricted my Come-Out action to the higher of either the sixth-progression or to my
now-lower $375 self-imposed World-bet limit.
Ø My
longest Point-cycle roll was fourteen throws (twice), but on average it was taking a touch
less than 5 rolls (including the Point-setting roll) before I 7d-Out.
Ø I
followed that routine for nearly four hours, then called it a day.
The
amount of net-profit at the end of it all really surprised me, although it shouldnt
have.
I
guess it was the full and unmistakable realization that Darkside-shooting really can
generate as much profit as equally-skilled Rightside-shooting, that pleasantly surprised
me the most.
I
watched an NBA game in Morries Place sports pub. Forgettable food consumed while watching a
forgettable game, encouraged me call it an early night.
Hotel
Accomodation
Unlike
the Canadian side of the Falls, the American side gets very little tourist trade as
evidenced by the extreme lack of first-rate accommodations.
There does however seem to be a booming crack-trade in the surrounding
neighborhoods. There is also a Holiday Inn
directly across the street from the casino, and the Seneca Nation is building their own
high-rise hotel on adjacent land.
Session
Five
A Tale of Two Darksiders
So
Im standing at the table with a bunch of guys who are all playing the Pass-line and
the usual Do-sider Place-bets on the 6 and 8 or single/double or triple-unit Inside-number
action.
For
the last hour or so, I had been doing my usual Come-Out World-bet action followed by the
D-D Odds Stretcher once the Point was established.
Everything
was copasetic and everyone was calm and well-behaved even though I was throwing my
intended DP 7-Outs every time the dice came around.
No one was bitching or moaning when I was winning and everything was
proceeding nicely. One or two players managed
to string together a couple of fairly decent hands, but nothing approaching hot.
A
new big-money player comes to the table. He
was also a Darkside shooter, but proceeded to be a complete asshole!
He
badgered every player when they were shooting
not just the ordinary uncouth Come
on buddy, 7-Out for me. He would
loudly browbeat each one of them to 7-out including a few not-so-subtle racial or sexual
slurs. I was surprised that neither the
box-lady nor the never-there-at-the-right-time Table-game Supervisor said a thing. Equally, I was surprised that my tablemates were
so meek in the face of an obvious schoolyard bully.
This
guy even sank so low as to approach each shooter between rolls and put his arm around
their shoulders while taunting them to throw a 7-Out.
Hed say stuff like, Listen youve only got $5 bucks on
the line and Ive got $500 on the Dont
so stop messin around and
throw the damn 7 before I mess you up. He
was not only getting into the head of most of the shooters, but he was also making a
complete ass of himself.
When
the dice came to me, I threw an easy 7-out that he cheered loudly and yelled, Thats
more like it
not like the rest of these Marys and Nancys around
here.
As
the dice came around again, he did the same old arm-around-the-shoulder routine to the guy
with the dice who was standing next to me. It
severely upset the shooter
who promptly 7d-Out.
I
decided at that moment to break from the whole purpose of this journey and to shoot from
the Rightside this time.
Frankly
I was really hoping that hed try to pull that arm-around-the-shoulder
crap with me so I could lay him out. I put
the stickman, the box-lady and the TGS on notice that if that idiot put his hands on me,
theyd be
sending him out to ECMC (Erie County Medical
Center) or better still, to my buddies that operate Magaddinos Funeral Home. For some reason that I cant fathom, the TGS
suddenly got instant wisdom, and immediately warned the idiot not to bother any
more players
and especially not THIS shooter (as he emphatically pointed my
way).
Though
I was slightly disappointed that they wouldnt have to surgically remove his head
from his lower intestinal tract, I was pleased to see that he had piled a high
tower of black chips on the Dont Pass line. It
had been so long since I had shot from the Passline that I took an extra few seconds to
re-orient myself back into a Rightside-shooting frame of mind.
Ill
spare you the gory details of his demise.
Ill
simply tell you that I made a couple of C-O PL-winners followed by three subsequent
PL-Point repeaters in a row
and he was betting against the Point on each and every
one of them. That performance was almost
enough to blow out his entire bankroll but he still had a few red chips remaining from the
~$5500 or so that he had held at the beginning of my hand (including his $2000 buy-in).
The
next shooter took care of the last few red-chip remnants of his idiotic arrogance. Niiiiiiiiiiice!
When
Im shooting from the Rightside, I personally dont care how many Dont
bettors are at the table with me. They
dont bother me
they dont make me feel like they are against me or that
its me against them
they simply dont get into my head.
However,
in this case, my actions were more for the benefit of my tablemates (even though at the
outset and for most of the session until this loogan arrived, they were Rightsiders and I
wasnt).
The
money that I won on that hand wasnt germane either (nor did I enter that profit into
my DP-winnings ledger). Rather, I did it because that fool was pissing in the well-water
that other better-behaved Darkside-shooters like to drink from. A guy who behaves like that is what gives
DP-players a bad reputation and creates even more hard feelings and hostility towards
other Darksiders. Worse still, it creates
even more of a stigma for those who are contemplating Darkside shooting but dont
want to be associated with the bad vibes, trash-talk and ill-will that players like that
bring to the table.
Seneca
Niagaras tables proved to be all that theyre cracked up to be, and I was
looking forward to a short trip down the road to its sister casino just south of Buffalo.
Ill hope youll join me for that one.
Good Luck & Good
Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
Sincerely,
The Mad Professor
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