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If I Only Knew Then,
What I Know Now
You know that you are
getting old: When you need a fire extinguisher to put out the fire on top of your birthday cake.
It's that last item that came to mind a few days ago when I ran into an old friend
named Ronnie while playing craps at Casino Windsor up in Ontario, Canada.
As he enjoyed a "real" (read: Canadian) beer, he reminisced about his
first casino experience back in the late 60's at the old Sands Hotel in Las Vegas. He said he missed the Regency Room and their
gourmet meals. He said he missed the
Hollywood characters who populated the lounge. He
said he missed the old craps game
no
wait a minute
he paused and
said
"I definitely don't miss the old craps game
they had single
odds
and nobody even thought about rhythmic rolling or Precision-Shooting." He looked at me for a long moment then said,
"Geez, I wish I knew then, what I know now
I woulda cleaned that place
out!"
Well I don't know about "cleaning the place out", but Ronnie is among
the thirty of so people that I personally know who make a great living playing this game. I say "people" not "guys"
because a couple of them are actually women. That
subject alone is definitely worth a separate look, at a future time.
So I asked Ronnie what he meant, and how that related to how he played now. He responded "When I first started this game
the "experts" all told me to make a Pass-Line bet and take odds, make a Come bet
and take odds, make another Come bet and take odds; press them up, and when the 7 hits,
start over." I said that sounded an
awful lot like what the "experts" say today, only they say take "full"
odds now. I added that this is still
touted today as one of the best ways to play.
Ronnie's face grew red and puffy like a partially-filled balloon looks two days
after the party is over. He retorted with
"Listen, it can't be the best way to play because just about everyone plays that way
and they continually and consistently lose. I
learned that way back when Caesar still had training wheels on his chariot and the
Hacienda Hotel served more champagne than all the other Strip hotels combined. I had to find a really good bet with low risk and
still make money in the long term. Something, that to this day, people say can't be
done!" I knew that he was right, but I
sometimes like to rattle his cage just to see him growl.
Deciding that hitting a nerve in Ronnie's delicate central processing unit wasn't
a good idea, I thought about giving him a break. I
didn't want the rest of our table-mates to witness an unhealthy cranial explosion that
would leave a mess on the felt layout if his head exploded. Let alone that a death at the
table seems to bring a bad karma to the game, but it was too late. Ronnie was on a spewing, boiling tirade about how
there was a better way to play the game of craps.
I stated the obvious, that there has never been a system invented that will beat
the game. He said "
of course there
isn't, this ain't no system, it's a methodology, it moves with the flow of the game, as
the game flows and changes so do the plays. It
takes yours, mine or somebody else's Precision-Shooting, some random-throwers lucky hands,
and then combines it with some betting methods, careful money management, continued
expansion of the knowledge of the game, and the entire concept then fits together as one
money-making effort."
A fellow player who stood nearby listening to all of this asked if he could
pose a question. I thought, oh great, as if
Ronnie isn't fired up enough, this will probably make him pop that blood-vessel that's
been sticking out of his forehead looking like an overfed snake hiding under a cotton
sheet! The player says "I see you guys
Place the 6 & 8 all the time, and you usually also Place the 5 & 9. Isn't the 5 & 9 carrying a high
house-edge?" Ronnie's response leapt out
of his mouth like a flag snapping in a hurricane. He
replied "Placing the 5 & 9 calculated to the end of humanity, is a stone cold
loser kid, same with the 6 & 8, but the Einstein's, Bernouli's and Fibinnaci's of the
world did not calculate that this bet would only be made when the table conditions are
rights?"
Of course I knew that what he was
talking about was called "diminishing probability" or in other words, the longer
or more frequent that an event happens, the more likely it will not continue.
Ronnie took the huge roll of money, held it out and challenged. "I'll put my money where my mouth is. This is for the people that say dice have no
memory and one roll cannot affect the next roll. If
that is true, then I'll put up my $10,000 to
your $1. All you have to do is throw 100 7's
in a row or something easier, just make 100 passes in a row! Any takers? Of
course not! Why, because the things I just
said are true and correct. They affect not
just the game at hand, but the entire concept of the game as a whole."
Good Luck & Good Skill at the
Tables
and in Life.
Mad Professor |
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