Tracking Your Throws

PorkChop’s CRAT

PorkChop has written a great Microsoft Excel based application for tracking your practice throws.  The application tracks and analyzes a huge amount of data. 

Click here for more info.

If you prefer on tracking your throws yourself….

Here’s a simple way to track and evaluate whether you are altering the frequency table.  It’s easier if you use an Excel spreadsheet but you can also do it by hand.   To get a reasonably valid statistical sample, you’re going to throw the dice AT LEAST 540 times which is 15 sets of 36 rolls.  I could take up to three hours to log in 540 rolls. Of course you could do this over the course of a few practice sessions.  You should use one specific pre set for each practice session.  It’s even BETTER if you have someone noting the rolls for you, that way you can concentrate on your throwing mechanics. (My wife said NO!)  

To track your rolls:    Throw the dice, add 1 to whatever the previous total was in the corresponding Total Rolls column. 

If you are using Excel you can program it to sum the total rolls column automatically so you know when you’ve reached 540.

If you ARE using excel, you can also have a fourth column which calculates what the Roll Total Should Be based on how many times you’ve thrown the dice thus far.  For instance, if your total rolls = 72 so far, then in the case of 2, you would have an equation: (total rolls divided by 36) times 1 normal occurrence).  So after 72 throws, the 2 SHOULD have appeared 2 times.  You would create a similar equation for all dice totals.  At any time, you will be able to compare what you’ve thrown to what the normal probability table would expect to be thrown.

The Excel Function for the math to create the value in column four is provided below. The Excel Function is arrived at by dividing the Roll Total by 36 and then multiplying by the probability. First you need to determine the value of probability for each paired numbers. See table below. (Note 7 does not have a pair) The Excel Function will look something like: =Sum(C1/36*P), where C1 is the cell holding the Roll Total and P = probability.

The probability for the paired numbers, 5/9, is 4. If the  total rolls is 72, then 72 divided by 36 = 2 times the probability of 4, which is 8. Eight is the total number of expected outcomes, using true math, possible with two dice.

What if the total rolls  is 90? 90/36*4 = 10. Ten is the total number of expected outcomes for a 5 or 9, true math, possible with two dice out of 90 random rolls.

Below is a table with the Excel Functions. The Excel Function is programmed into the cell in column four. It does not matter if your total roll is 36 times or 1,738 times. The function will mathematically represent the true math probability for any number of rolls for any number on two dice. In this way you can compare your results with dice influencing against probability.

Excel Functions for Probability and Roll Total

If you are using a set for avoiding the seven (i.e. the crossed sixes), the 7 row should be significantly less than 90 (at least 13 less).  If you threw the 7 only 77 times instead of 90, you have reduced the frequency table from a 16%* appearance rate (1 of 6) to a 14%* appearance rate (1 of 7).  Inversely, if you’ve used the same set for the 540 throws, you’ve probably also altered the frequency table of the other numbers.   If you used the crossed six for example, my guess would be that the appearance of the 5 and 9 would be significantly higher than the statistical norm.
*rounded

So you say, I shaved 2% off the appearance of the 7, big deal.  It IS a big deal!   With that small alteration of the frequency table, if you place bets with small house percentages, you have for all practical purposes erased the house edge!  But take it one step further, not only have you reduced the number of appearances of the 7, but you also have an indicator of how you should be betting! 

For me the crossed sixes set gives me a disproportionate amount of 5’s and 9’s.  Your mechanics and style could have a different outcome.  Only practice will tell.  I know of someone who throws an extraordinary number of horn numbers.  Usually this would be a poor betting strategy, but for him the house advantage on these bets has been reduced significantly because of his propensity to throw them. 

With every set that you practice, you should also keep a running total of hard way throws that you make. You’ll probably find that certain pre sets will have an inordinate number of certain hard ways. All of this practice will arm you with the necessary information to develop a corresponding betting strategy to employ when it’s your turn to throw the bones.

No matter how proficient you become at setting and throwing the dice, there is no need to put money at undue risk. You will develop signature throwing trends that are unique to you. Do not put money at risk on numbers that you have not displayed an affinity to throw for the devil 7 will eventually come. In other words, KNOW THY SELF!

Once you have your throwing mechanics down, and can REGULARLY alter the frequency table throwing the dice consecutively 540 times, the next step is to stop throwing for some period of time (10 minutes, overnight etc.) every time you throw a 7. The point of this is to break the rhythm you’ve gotten yourself into every time you “seven out” and to simulate the fact that you have to recreate your rhythm every time you receive the dice.

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