You Can’t Shine a Cow-Patty…or CAN You? Part 2

For some players, it takes a paradigm shift to go from what they thought they knew about the game back when they were random-rollers, to what they know now as advantage-play Precision-Shooters.

I’ll give you an example.

• Most every craps book on the market paints the Field-bet as a bad wager. 
• For random-rollers, the house holds a 5.56% advantage over them.  Even in casinos where the Field-12 gets paid at 3:1, the house-edge is still 2.78%.
• Though the Field covers seven numbers (2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11 and 12), and there are 16-out-of-36 random-outcomes which cover them; it is the other non-Field numbers (5, 6, 7, and 8) with their 20-out-of-36 random-occurrences that validates that “bad bet” designation for random shooters.

However, knowledgeable Precision-Shooters understand that profitable dice-influencing is all about overcoming the house-edge…and actually turning it into a player’s advantage.

So the question becomes, “Can it be done on the Field, and if so, how good of a shooter do you have to be to make the Field-bet profitable?”

The answer is, “Yes, it can be done, and it only takes very modest dice-influencing skills to do it”.

The X-6 Set / Field-Bet Combination

For most intermediate-skilled X-6 set shooters, the biggest frustration is dealing with all the non-paying trash numbers that the Crossed-Sixes set throws off during a hand.

For me, I see that X-6 set frustration more as a superb profit-making opportunity.

• What if you could use the Field-bet as your MAIN wager and your MAIN dice-influencing income source?
• What if you could use the non-Field 5, 6, and 8 outcomes simply as supporting cast members who prop up the use and utility of your Field income without unduly diluting it?

If you knew the Field-bet could produce outstanding returns even at a low on-axis percentage, would you consider using it?

Defining Your Advantage

Suppose for a moment that you were able to generally keep the X-6 dice-set on-axis about 55% of the time.

Is that good enough to justify going up against such a high-vig bet like the Field?

Let’s have a look:

I want to thank ACDOC and Maddog for graciously providing the graphs you see here.

The left-most bars on this graph represent a random-roller.   The first thing you’ll see is that no matter what bet he makes, the expectation remains on the negative-side of the earnings line.

The first real glimmer of hope is when either a worse-than-random or better-than-random axial-maintenance starts to take hold.

Not surprisingly, the first bet that even starts to make sense for the X-6 user is the Field-bet. 

You’ll notice too that the Field-bet is the ONLY right-side bet in that group which makes sense for the X-6 user until he reaches the 55% on-axis level of consistency.  Up until that point, all of the other “traditional” bets like the Pass-Line, Come-wagering and Place-betting, ALL remain in negative-expectation territory.

• Now the first thing that comes to my mind is, “If your on-axis percentage ISN’T 55% or better; then why the heck are you still using the X-6 dice-set?”
• However, the second thing that comes to my mind when I look at this chart is, “Why the heck is everyone in the dice-influencing community so down on the Field-bet especially in light of the fact that so many people blindly follow the X-6 set use, but they don’t capitalize on its very strengths?”

It’s only after I am able to compose myself at the seeming incredulity of the situation that I get to my third thought about the X-6 users who have achieved around the 55% O/A threshold, and that is…

• There are incredible amounts of money to be made DIRECTLY off of the Field…and any other bets (with the exception of straight up Prop-bets on the 2 and 12) are merely supporting cast members…or bankroll-sucking leaches that actually reduce your profit-rate.

Now, let’s see if my rant was worth all that trouble…

The first thing that should jump right out at you is the fact that at a low axial-maintenance (even as low as 30%); the Field-bet is the only wager in that bunch that is STILL profitable even if you never ever get past the 55% on-axis proficiency mark. 

If a 55% O/A X-6 shooter can steadily benefit from the Field; can the other 45% of his OFF-axis outcomes also contribute anything useful?

Let’s find out…

Outcome-Distribution Dictates Bet-Decisions

To decide where and how much of your wagering-weight should be placed on any bets, your distribution of outcomes should be the sole dictator in that process.

That is:

YOUR dice-set distribution-results (as opposed to random-expectancy) dictates where YOUR money should be bet.

• Let’s assume for a moment that you are able to keep your dice on-axis about 55% of the time.  Though that means that they’ll be going OFF-axis the other 45% of the time; it does not mean that they are “wasted” rolls. 

• Instead, we know that you’ll still have some off-axis Signature Outcomes simply because, even though the dice sometimes do go off-axis, the two dice often still remain in correlation.  For a full discussion on correlation, please see Shooting Bible #11. 
  
• Correlated Signature Outcomes is why you’ll often see the same roll-results even when one of your die does go off-axis. 
  
• In the end though, those same irritating off-axis “toss-defects”, can still enable and permit even more tangible profit to be derived from what appears to be a dice-influencing “shortcoming”.

 
Let me give you an assumptive example with the Crossed-Sixes (X-6) set: 

• The first thing I can tell you about this, is that it achieves a Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio of over 1:8 DESPITE the fact that the dice are only kept on-axis 55% of the time.

• The second thing I can tell you is that with modestly-influenced roll-stats like these, the Field-bet becomes a no-brainer champion by racking up a stunning 11.25% advantage over the house.

Take a look at the numbers that correspond with those above-noted axial-outcome percentages, and then we’ll discuss how to really put a shine on this lowly-regarded Field-bet cow-patty:

A random-roller can expect to see a Field-number about 44.44% of the time, while non-Field outcomes account for the other 55.56% of random appearances. 

By subtly affecting the dice-distribution expectancy through dice-influencing, our 55% on-axis X-6 shooter achieves a significantly better set of outcomes where he’ll see a Field-number about 49.62% of the time and a non-Field outcome about 50.38% of the time. 

At first glance, those are not huge differences in expected outcomes.  However the fact is, you don’t have to be a “perfect-thrower” to derive an exploitable edge over the house…but you DO have to bet your advantage correctly, otherwise your skills are almost entirely wasted.

The Bottom Line

When you combine those on-axis outcomes with the off-axis ones, you start to get a more complete picture of where your strongest and most compelling betting-opportunities are found…and frankly, where the preponderance of your betting-weight should be placed.

So what does all this mean in terms of this players advantage over the house?

Have a look for yourself:

• At the top of the advantage-play heap stands the 2 and 12.   Now normally, this Prop-wager has a house-edge of 13.889%, but for the X-6 shooter who has reached an easily achievable 55% O-A skill-level; he not only overcomes that nearly 14% house-edge…but actually puts his own shooting into the driver’s seat with a positive 20% advantage over each of those traditionally disparaged 2 and 12 “Crazy Crapper” bets.  That’s a 35% change in course from the hands of a decidedly moderately skilled shooter.

• In descending order, the Field-bet comes in as his next strongest bet.  Again, this wager is traditionally frowned upon because of its 5.56% house-edge…but that’s for random-rollers.  For dice-influencers with the modest skill-set that we’ve been discussing, that house-edge is pared right down to nothing…and comes out on the positive side for the player to the tune of an 11.25% advantage on a “downtown-odds” table.

• Keep in mind that advantage-blackjack players start to wet their panties if the edge climbs anywhere close to 2% or 3%, so an 11.25% player-edge would make them downright wacky…but many craps veterans still can’t get over the psychological hump of making an advantage-bet that their tablemate-friends might frown upon.  Well-intentioned peer-pressure often keeps many skilled players from earning their rightfully deserved profit.

• In this scenario, even the normal 4% house-edge on the 5 and 9 Place-bets gets reversed into a player-advantage of over 6%, while the normal 4.76% cost of buying the 4 or 10 turns into the players favor to the tune of 4%.

• Keep in mind that we are not discussing perfect-world scenarios here.  We are talking about an unexceptional on-axis proficiency of 55%, and an even more modest 16% primary-face hit-rate. 

• Each of those negative-to-positive expectancy reversals are so significant that a savvy player cannot ignore them or eschew them simply because a couple of writers who don’t know preferred stock from livestock and don’t understand how a dice-influencer can maximize his profit without following gambling dogma that is a hold over from the Dark Ages, said that the Field-bet is a bad thing.  

• It IS a bad thing for random-rollers, but in the unassuming hands of an intermediately-skilled dice-influencer, the Field-bet can be downright lucrative.

• Instead of blindly following worn-out gambling decrees and age-old doctrine that was designed for the world of randomly-thrown outcomes; the astute dice-influencer has to look at his current abilities and honestly ask himself if he is extracting the maximum possible profit from each of the bets that he is making.  I am talking about using exactly THE SAME bet-levels that you are comfortable with now, but simply redeploying that same money on bets that will serve your current skill-level most equitably.

• Many players are shocked to discover that they have been unfairly retarding their D-I earnings simply because some wagers like the Field are saddled with a “ladies bet” label or an inner-city-bettors-only stigma.

Grow up…get real…and put your money where it will serve your current skills the best.

Oh, and one other thing.  Those on-axis and off-axis stats that we just reviewed, well you may be surprised to learn that they give that 55% O/A X-6-set shooter an SRR of 8.33.   Not too shabby for a modestly-skilled player who is off-axis about 45% of the time.

So, Can You Shine THIS Field-Bet Cow-Patty?

Yer darn tootin’ you can!

I hope you’ll join me for Part Three of this series when we take this little filly for a hard ride around the casinos Field-bet meadow.  You may be surprised at how quickly she can gallop to a full and sustained profit.

Until then,

Good Luck & Good Skill at the tables…and in Life

Sincerely,

The Mad Professor