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Part III As
a dice-influencer, your task is to de-randomize the dice to a point where you have an
exploitable edge over the casino. Thereafter,
your primary task is to determine which wagers your shooting proficiency gives you the
biggest advantage over, and then to wager your money in such a way so as to produce the
most profit. In
Part
Two of this series I showed you in very clear detail:
Ø
How
your own validated Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio (SRR) reconfigures the outcome-probabilities
chart, and how that resultant 7s appearance-rate determines the length of
your average hand.
Ø
How
to calculate your Inside-Numbers-to-Sevens ratio, and why it is critically important for
you to do so, especially if you are considering making any global, multi-number Inside
or Across wagers.
Ø
Finally,
we looked at how long you have (as measured by the number of point-cycle rolls) in which
to profitably exploit a regression-style wager. Today,
we are going to delve much further into regression-style wagering to figure out how much
profit-per-hand we can reasonably expect to make off of an Inside-Number wager. As
dice-influencers we know that the further we move our shooting away from the
randomly-expected Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio of 1:6, the better we are at keeping the 7 at bay.
How
SRR Affects Average Roll-Duration
Why
is it so hard to get consistently long hands even when we have a validated edge over the
casino? The
answer is two fold.
Ø
Though
our SKILL may be fairly consistent throughout an entire hand, our EDGE over
the bets that we make is not. Let
me explain:
Ø
When
looked at in total isolation on a per-roll basis, our dice-influencing skill
determines the edge that we have over a certain bet.
Ø
However,
when viewed over the entirety of a hand and in relation to our Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio, a
gap starts to form.
That
gap is the chasm that is formed between our skill and the relative
declining-value edge that we have over the house when our SRR is considered and
reconciled with the expected number of rolls of our average-duration hand. If
our skill remains the same, and our edge, when considered against a single roll remains
the same; then how does our overall edge decline? Well,
the same thing that makes long random rolls exceptional, is exactly the same thing
that make long dice-influenced rolls exceptional too.
Ø
The
likelihood of a long duration random hand declines with each and every subsequent
toss that is made during any given hand.
Ø
The
random occurrence-rate of the 7 remains constant at 16.67%, but the chance of a 7 not
appearing over an extended period becomes increasingly less likely.
Ø
This
has nothing to do with due number theory, but everything to do with the
mathematical expectancy of random outcomes. The
ratio of 7s to all the other numbers remains constant at 1-in-6 (16.67%), but the
longer a 7 doesnt appear, the less likely it will continue to stay away. The
math-guys have already calculated how that applies to random SRR-6 shooters; and in the
chart below, I simply applied the same formulas to calculate point-cycle duration for
SRR-7, SRR-8, and SRR-9 dice-influencers too.
Ø
If
we know the SRR rate of a shooter; then we can predict how long his average point-cycle
will last.
Ø
Based
on his current ability to generate non-7 outcomes, we can then structure a betting-method
that best satisfies his profit motive. Anatomy
Of An Inside-Wager
To
understand why we have to look at using an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) to achieve a
net-profit much sooner and on a much more consistent basis; we can take a look at the
anatomy of an Inside-Number wager. If,
for example, you flat-bet $22-Inside (neither increasing nor decreasing your wager at any
point during the point-cycle of your hand); then you need to make four successful
Inside-Number hits before reaching net-profitability.
Though
you could consider taking your $22-Inside wager down after one, two or three hits, thereby
locking up a profit; a hand that lasts beyond that bets-off/bets-down point
could see a situation where Inside-Numbers continue to roll, but you no longer have
any active Inside-Number wagers to take advantage of your ongoing hand. One
way to contend with this issue is to use an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) where you start
out with a higher wager at the beginning of your point-cycle; and then after one or more
hits, you reduce that initial large wager down to a lower amount thereby locking in a
profit while still leaving active Inside-Number wagers out on the table. What
the ISR does is to recognize the fact that your dice-influencing skills are much more
likely to produce at least one paying Inside-Number hit than they are to produce
two or three or four or more of them; but in the event that your hand does continue
unabated, then the ISR has already locked in a quick and guaranteed profit while still
affording you even more upside profit potential as your hand continues. Inside-Bet
Survival-Rate
Your
Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio (SRR) pretty much determines the survival-rate of your Inside-Number
bet.
Your
Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio (SRR) establishes the survival-rate of your Inside-Number bet simply
because it determines, on average, how likely your hand will be able to stay alive on a
roll-to-roll basis. Expected
Win-Rate If
we know the survival-rate for an Inside-bet based on a shooters Sevens-to-Rolls ratio;
then we can calculate his expected average win-rate on a roll-by-roll basis. For
example:
Ø
The
SRR-6 random-shooter will always be in a negative-expectation position, as we already
knew; and no matter what he does with that wager, it will always remain on the
negative side of the profit-expectancy curve.
On
the other hand
Ø The SRR-7 shooter actually has a strong and positive expectation on his first point-cycle roll. Unfortunately, if he doesnt hit an Inside-Number payer on that first post Come-Out roll; then things start to look fairly bad for him or at least for his money. In this case, a strong argument could be made, that it is in his best interests to use a very quick and steep regression for his Inside-Number wager. For example, since his shooting only puts him in positive-expectation territory on the first point-cycle roll of this particular $22-Inside bet; then an Initial Steep Regression that secures a quick and early profit is called for.
Ø
The
SRR-8 dice-influencer fairs better, and for a longer period of time (as
measured by the number of point-cycle rolls) than his SRR-6 or SRR-7 counterparts. His skilled shooting keeps him in positive
territory for his first three point-cycle rolls.
Therefore, this shooter could reasonably consider taking two or possibly
even three winning hits at the initial large-bet portion of his Inside-Number wager before
regressing it down to a lower amount.
Ø
The
SRR-9 precision-shooter clearly enjoys an even greater amount of bet-making flexibility. Since his first four point-cycle rolls are
in strong positive-expectation territory for this particular bet, he should obviously
consider leaving his initial large Inside-Number wager up for those first four rolls
before regressing them.
Show
Me The Money
So
how do we figure out how much our initial large-bet Inside-Number wager will make for us,
and how do we figure out the best time to regress? We
simply multiply the amount of money we want to use as our initial large-bet Inside-Number
wager by the Expected profit-per-roll Win-Rate.
That
chart tells us, on average, how much money we can reasonably expect to make:
Ø
For
each point-cycle roll that we throw.
Ø
For
each Inside-Bet dollar that we wager.
Ø
How
long our wager stays in positive-expectation territory. Please
note that all
figures in these charts were rounded off.
Part
Four
of this series looks at how all of this applies to practical real-world casino betting,
and how best to apply what youve learned when it comes to putting your
advantage-play money into action. I hope
youll join me for that. Until
then, Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables
and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor
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