
Regression Avoids
Depression As
a diceinfluencer, your task is to derandomize the dice to a point where you have an
exploitable edge over the casino. Thereafter,
your primary task is to determine which wagers your shooting proficiency gives you the
biggest advantage over, and then to wager your money in such a way so as to produce the
most profit. In
Part
Two of this series I showed you in very clear detail:
Ø
How
your own validated SevenstoRolls Ratio (SRR) reconfigures the outcomeprobabilities
chart, and how that resultant 7’s appearancerate determines the length of
your average hand.
Ø
How
to calculate your InsideNumberstoSevens ratio, and why it is critically important for
you to do so, especially if you are considering making any global, multinumber Inside
or Across wagers.
Ø
Finally,
we looked at how long you have (as measured by the number of pointcycle rolls) in which
to profitably exploit a regressionstyle wager. Today,
we are going to delve much further into regressionstyle wagering to figure out how much
profitperhand we can reasonably expect to make off of an InsideNumber wager. As
diceinfluencers we know that the further we move our shooting away from the
randomlyexpected SevenstoRolls Ratio of 1:6, the better we are at keeping the 7 at bay.
How
SRR Affects Average RollDuration
Why
is it so hard to get consistently long hands even when we have a validated edge over the
casino? The
answer is two fold.
Ø
Though
our SKILL may be fairly consistent throughout an entire hand, our EDGE over
the bets that we make is not. Let
me explain:
Ø
When
looked at in total isolation on a perroll basis, our diceinfluencing skill
determines the edge that we have over a certain bet.
Ø
However,
when viewed over the entirety of a hand and in relation to our SevenstoRolls Ratio, a
gap starts to form.
That
gap is the chasm that is formed between our skill and the relative
decliningvalue edge that we have over the house when our SRR is considered and
reconciled with the expected number of rolls of our averageduration hand. If
our skill remains the same, and our edge, when considered against a single roll remains
the same; then how does our overall edge decline? Well,
the same thing that makes long random rolls exceptional, is exactly the same thing
that make long diceinfluenced rolls exceptional too.
Ø
The
likelihood of a long duration random hand declines with each and every subsequent
toss that is made during any given hand.
Ø
The
random occurrencerate of the 7 remains constant at 16.67%, but the chance of a 7 not
appearing over an extended period becomes increasingly less likely.
Ø
This
has nothing to do with “due number theory”, but everything to do with the
mathematical expectancy of random outcomes. The
ratio of 7’s to all the other numbers remains constant at 1in6 (16.67%), but the
longer a 7 doesn’t appear, the less likely it will continue to stay away. The
mathguys have already calculated how that applies to random SRR6 shooters; and in the
chart below, I simply applied the same formulas to calculate pointcycle duration for
SRR7, SRR8, and SRR9 diceinfluencers too.
Ø
If
we know the SRR rate of a shooter; then we can predict how long his average pointcycle
will last.
Ø
Based
on his current ability to generate non7 outcomes, we can then structure a bettingmethod
that best satisfies his profit motive. Anatomy
Of An InsideWager
To
understand why we have to look at using an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) to achieve a
netprofit much sooner and on a much more consistent basis; we can take a look at the
anatomy of an InsideNumber wager. If,
for example, you flatbet $22Inside (neither increasing nor decreasing your wager at any
point during the pointcycle of your hand); then you need to make four successful
InsideNumber hits before reaching netprofitability.
Though
you could consider taking your $22Inside wager down after one, two or three hits, thereby
locking up a profit; a hand that lasts beyond that “betsoff/betsdown” point
could see a situation where InsideNumbers continue to roll, but you no longer have
any active InsideNumber wagers to take advantage of your ongoing hand. One
way to contend with this issue is to use an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) where you start
out with a higher wager at the beginning of your pointcycle; and then after one or more
hits, you reduce that initial large wager down to a lower amount thereby locking in a
profit while still leaving active InsideNumber wagers out on the table. What
the ISR does is to recognize the fact that your diceinfluencing skills are much more
likely to produce at least one paying InsideNumber hit than they are to produce
two or three or four or more of them; but in the event that your hand does continue
unabated, then the ISR has already locked in a quick and guaranteed profit while still
affording you even more upside profit potential as your hand continues. InsideBet
SurvivalRate
Your
SevenstoRolls Ratio (SRR) pretty much determines the survivalrate of your InsideNumber
bet.
Your
SevenstoRolls Ratio (SRR) establishes the survivalrate of your InsideNumber bet simply
because it determines, on average, how likely your hand will be able to stay alive on a
rolltoroll basis. Expected
WinRate If
we know the survivalrate for an Insidebet based on a shooters SevenstoRolls ratio;
then we can calculate his expected average winrate on a rollbyroll basis. For
example:
Ø
The
SRR6 randomshooter will always be in a negativeexpectation position, as we already
knew; and no matter what he does with that wager, it will always remain on the
negative side of the profitexpectancy curve.
On
the other hand… Ø The SRR7 shooter actually has a strong and positive expectation on his first pointcycle roll. Unfortunately, if he doesn’t hit an InsideNumber payer on that first post ComeOut roll; then things start to look fairly bad for him…or at least for his money. In this case, a strong argument could be made, that it is in his best interests to use a very quick and steep regression for his InsideNumber wager. For example, since his shooting only puts him in positiveexpectation territory on the first pointcycle roll of this particular $22Inside bet; then an Initial Steep Regression that secures a quick and early profit is called for.
Ø
The
SRR8 diceinfluencer fairs better, and for a longer period of time (as
measured by the number of pointcycle rolls) than his SRR6 or SRR7 counterparts. His skilled shooting keeps him in positive
territory for his first three pointcycle rolls.
Therefore, this shooter could reasonably consider taking two or possibly
even three winning hits at the initial largebet portion of his InsideNumber wager before
regressing it down to a lower amount.
Ø
The
SRR9 precisionshooter clearly enjoys an even greater amount of betmaking flexibility. Since his first four pointcycle rolls are
in strong positiveexpectation territory for this particular bet, he should obviously
consider leaving his initial large InsideNumber wager up for those first four rolls
before regressing them.
Show
Me The Money
So
how do we figure out how much our initial largebet InsideNumber wager will make for us,
and how do we figure out the best time to regress? We
simply multiply the amount of money we want to use as our initial largebet InsideNumber
wager by the Expected profitperroll WinRate.
That
chart tells us, on average, how much money we can reasonably expect to make:
Ø
For
each pointcycle roll that we throw.
Ø
For
each InsideBet dollar that we wager.
Ø
How
long our wager stays in positiveexpectation territory. Please
note that all
figures in these charts were rounded off.
Part
Four
of this series looks at how all of this applies to practical realworld casino betting,
and how best to apply what you’ve learned when it comes to putting your
advantageplay money into action. I hope
you’ll join me for that. Until
then, Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor

