
Regression Avoids
Depression Using
Different Steepness Ratios In
Part
Four of this series, we looked at the profitability of using a $110Inside to
$22Inside regression. That equates to a 5:1
regressionratio. Part One
of this series explains in detail what regressionratios are, and how we use them. Simply
stated: Ø The steeper the regressionratio is; the higher, earlier and more often a netprofit will be secured.
Ø
The
shallower the regressionratio is; the less frequent and lower our netprofit will
be. The
Risk of Using Too LOW of a Regression Ratio If
we try to go cheap with our betting by not putting out a large enough initial bet (or by
flatbetting) when we have the best chance of actually capitalizing on our
PrecisionShooting abilities; then it’s little wonder why so many accomplished
players run into difficulty in exploiting even their most obvious skills. Ø If our bets are too low or the regressions that we use are too shallow in ratio; then we'll almost always restrain and unnecessarily retard our advantageplay earnings.
Ø
Most
players look at a lowervalue/lowerratio startinglevel for their regression as a way of
reducing volatility; but in fact, it just makes it harder (or almost impossible) for them
to break through to profit on a sustainable basis.
Ø
The
lower and closer your SevenstoRolls Ratio (SRR) is to random; the less time (as measured
by number of pointcycle rolls) you will have in which to capitalize on your
diceinfluencing skill. Therefore you have to
bet on the fattest part of your rollduration expectancy curve.
As
you can see on the chart above; combining a regression that is too shallow (2:1) with a
modest SRR, can result in a negative result even though you will often hit your first
paying InsideNumber bet and still be able to make the regression. What puts this SRR7 shooter into negative
territory is the fact that he won’t hit enough paying InsideNumbers often
enough at the regressed $22Inside mark to make the bet become netpositive. On
the other hand, you can see that if this same SRR7 shooter simply increases (steepens)
the ISR regressionratio to 3:1, the very same skillset produces a modest profit.
Ø
As
your SRRrate improves and the steepness of your regression increases; so does your return
on investment. For
example, in the chart below, a SRR8 diceinfluencer produces a profit even when employing
a shallow 2:1 regression ratio. Obviously
though, his betflexibility and overall income rises dramatically as his regressionratio
increases.
It
is important to note that each SRRlevel forces a different betreduction trigger point. While the SRR7 shooter has to immediately regress
his large initial bet after just one hit; the SRR8 diceinfluencer can reasonably keep
them up at their initial large size for the first three pointcycle rolls before having to
steeply regress them.
Ø
As
your SRR improves over random, the higher your rateofreturn will be.
Ø
Obviously,
the more wellendowed your session bankroll is and the more comfortable you are in using
higherratio steeperregression wagers; the more you will be able to take full advantage
of your diceinfluencing skills.
Part
Six
of this series adds a whole new dimension to regressionbased profitmaking. I hope you will join me for that. Until then, Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. Sincerely, The Mad Professor

