
Regression Avoids
Depression I
refer to multinumber wagers like Inside (5, 6, 8, and 9), Across (4, 5, 6,
8, 9, and 10), Outside (4, 5, 9, and 10), Even (4, 6, 8, and 10), Iron
Cross (5, 6, 8, and Field) and similar, as “global bets”, because
they are semi or fullyencompassing wagers that cover several numbers at the same time. In
the hands of a randomroller, NONE of those bets hold ANY merit whatsoever,
and frankly NONE of your money should be ventured on ANY of them if you want
your advantageplay bankroll to stay in positiveexpectation territory. Conversely,
each one of those bets holds their own special place in the world of diceinfluencing. Your task as an advantageplayer, is to figure out
how good your own shooting ability is; and then determine which bets are best suited to
those talents. Your
Betting Should Be Dictated By How Good Your Shooting Is
Frankly,
the lion’s share of your bettingweight should be wagered on your top one or two
SignatureNumbers.
Ø
Your
SN’s are determined by the particular diceset that you use and the consistency in
which you throw. I refer to that
influencerate/diceset consistency as “Foundation Frequencies”.
Ø
The
more consistent your toss is, the more dominant certain diceoutcomes will be when you are
using a given diceset. Ø When you spread your money across a wider range of bets, your volatility decreases but your betexposure increases.
Ø
By
far, the absolute best way to exploit your advantage over the house is to put your
money where your greatest advantage is.
Ø
If
you reduce the amount of money that you wager on your strongestedge bet just so
you can wager on additional numbers; then you may be unfairly diminishing your
profit.
Ø
That
means you may unwittingly be surrendering more profit in favor of more frequent
hits on a wider range of bets and still emerge from that transaction with less
netrevenue than your shootingskill deserves. That
sort of deleterious betting problem is not foreign to anyone who has sought to exploit
their diceinfluencing edge over this game. However
that is precisely WHY the carefully considered use of Initial Steep Regressions is
so important to intermediate and advanced PrecisionShooters.
Ø
The
ISR bettingformulas that we are discussing in this series solve that ageold problem with
all kinds of new profitmaking opportunities. In
Parts Two,
Three,
Four
and Five,
we validated the use of Initial Steep Regressions on the Insidebet in a way that
permits even a modestly skilled diceinfluencer to satisfy both the desire of a
satisfyingly high hitrate with the necessity of a fully utilized SRRbased
profitgenerator. Your
shootingskill dictates where your money should be wagered.
As such, a savvy player has to consider his skills in context with a wide
range of betting choices. The prudent use of
SRRbased ISR’s can often delineate and more fully exploit those choices within a
globalbet context. AllAcross
Bets
In
a random outcome game, AcrosstheBoard or AllAcross wagers constitute
66.67% of all possible outcomes. The
Acrossbet covers all of the boxnumbers (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10). There
are:
Ø
Three
ways to make a 4, and it pays 9:5, unless you buy it, in which case it pays out at 2:1,
less the vigorish.
Ø
Four
ways to make a 5, and it pays 7:5.
Ø
Five
ways to make a 6, and it pays 7:6.
Ø
Five
ways to make an 8, and it pays 7:6.
Ø
Four
ways to make a 9, and it pays 7:5.
Ø
Three
ways to make a 10 and it pays 9:5, unless you buy it, in which case it pays out at 2:1,
less the vigorish. Therefore,
Acrosstheboard numbers constitute 24outof36 (66.67%) of all
randomlyexpected outcomes, and their average weightedpayout is $7.50 per hit. Your
Mileage May Vary
As
your SevenstoRolls Ratio (SRR) improves, the appearancerate for the 7 declines. Ø The less the 7 shows up within a given samplinggroup, the more other non7 outcomes will take its place.
Ø To give your diceshooting skills the best opportunity to prosper, you should determine exactly which numbers are taking the place of those diminishing 7’s.
Ø
In
the samples that I’ve used in this series, I’ve evenly spread those replacement
numbers across the entire outcome spectrum.
Ø
As
such, your expectancychart may look somewhat different than the generic ones here; so for
even more bettingaccuracy, you may want to tailor your wagers to more closely match up
with your actual numericallysignificant rollsample outcomes.
Although
your SevenstoRolls ratio is not the only diceinfluencing metric that matters,
many diceinfluencers often underutilize it when it comes to shaping and structuring
bettingmethods and their related samebet, press or regress triggerpoints. How
many incredibly skilled PrecisionShooters do you know who have endured years of suffering
through the “Please lawrd, just gimme one more hit” syndrome of
improperly timed samebet, press or regress triggerpoints.
Sooner or later, most players come to realize that it is NOT their shooting
that is needlessly keeping them on the breakeven or minor losing side of the ledger…it
is THEIR BETTING. If
you ignore or dismiss your SRRrate; you are not only overlooking your best indicator of
average handduration, but you are also rejecting the best gauge by which to successfully
structure a consistently productive multinumber bettingmethod. Intelligent
advantageplayers aren’t so quick to turn their backs on such an important
profitpatterning benchmark. If
you ignore what your skillbased sevensappearancerate is trying to tell you; then
don’t be surprised if consistently produceable profit ignores you too. The
7 is the omnipresent rollender for every Rightside bettor.
You
can pretend that it’s not there, and you can hope that it never shows
up, and you can wish that your hand will last long enough to show a netprofit; but
if your bettingmethod structure doesn’t recognize the 7’s appearancerate or
the resultant rollduration decayrate that accompanies your SRR; then don’t be
surprised or disappointed if your skillbased profits continue to be far lower than your
diceinfluencing abilities indicate they should be. How
often the 7 appears is dictated by your skillbased SRRrate.
The
randomlyexpected SRRrate is oneinsix (16.67%) on any given roll, while a novice
SRR7 shooter only has to contend with a 14.29% perroll (1in7) chance of it appearing. At first glance that 2.38% difference looks
pretty small, but it actually equates to a very exploitable 14% disparity between a random
SRR6 shooter and a SRR7 diceinfluencer. Within
that small margin of improvement over random is where diceinfluencers can find all kinds
of money, but you have to properly wager your money on that
difference for it to do you any good. Anatomy
Of An AcrossWager
Using
an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) permits even the most modestly skilled diceinfluencer
to achieve a netprofit much sooner and on a much more consistent basis than if he is
making comparably spread flatbets. If,
for example, you flatbet $32Across (neither increasing nor decreasing your wager at any
point during the pointcycle of your hand); then you need to make five successful
AcrossNumber hits BEFORE reaching netprofitability.
As
attractive and enticing as the idea of covering all of the boxnumbers is, with the
Acrossbet constituting fully twothirds (66.67%) of all possible randomoutcomes; the sad
fact is that a randomroller still has a greater chance of 7’ingOut than he does of
hitting enough boxnumbers for that bet to pay for itself on a consistent basis. That is the nature of ANY randomlybased
bets that you make. However,
in the hands of a modestly skilled diceinfluencer, the Acrossbet can be a steady profit
contributor to your bankroll.
As
with Insidewagers, your SevenstoRolls Ratio largely determines the average
rollduration of your Acrossbet hand. At the
same time, your SRR also determines the decayrate of your validated edge against any
given bet and therefore establishes the optimal time to regress your initially large bet
into a smaller, lowervalue one.
As
I just mentioned:
Ø
If
we know how long our hand generally stays in positiveexpectation territory for the
AcrossNumber bets we are making; then we can easily determine the ideal time to regress
them from their initially high startingvalue.
Ø
The
closer your SRR is to random; the faster you will have to regress your bets in order to
have the greatest chance of making a profit during any given hand; and obviously the
higher your SRR is, the more time (as measured by the number of pointcycle rolls) you
will have in which to fully exploit your diceinfluencing skills.
Therefore,
the expected rollduration hitrate for the allencompassing Acrossnumber wager has to
factor in the modified sevensappearancerate for any given SRR; which in turn then
produces the optimal regression triggerpoint for each skilllevel.
Ø
Once
we know where that positivetonegative transition point is, we can use it as the
triggerpoint in which to optimally regress our large initial wager down to a lower level. In doing so, we concurrently lockin a netprofit
while still maintaining active bets on the layout in the event that our handduration does
exceed and survive that positivetonegative transition point, as it often will. A
Practical Comparison
Let’s
look at how this works when we compare flatbetting $160Across versus the use of an initial
$160Across wager that is steeply regressed to $32Across at the appropriate triggerpoint.
I
deleted any further references to SRR6 random betting in the following charts simply
because it always remains in negativeexpectation territory. The
following ISR chart utilizes the optimum SRRbased triggerpoint at which the
LargebettoSmallbet regression should take place.
Here’s
a comparison between flatbetting versus the use of an Initial Steep Regression:
While
regressionbetting still enjoys a wide returnoninvestment advantage over flatbetting;
that gap actually narrows as your SRR improves. Ø By using a Steep Regression to lock in a quick profit while our wagers are still in positiveexpectation territory, and still permitting a muchreduced set of postregression wagers to stay in place once our rollduration surpasses that point; we get to benefit from the best of both worlds.
Ø
By
using an Initial Steep Regression (ISR), we derive profit from the fattest
positiveexpectation portion of our pointcycle, while our newly reduced lowervalue bets
remain in action when our hand exceeds its expected average duration, as it often will. Using
Different Steepness Ratios
Ø
The
steeper the regressionratio is; the higher, earlier and more often a netprofit
will be secured.
Ø
The
shallower the regressionratio is; the less frequent and lower our netprofit will
be.
Take
a look at how various steepness ratios affect your profitability.
As
your SRRrate improves, so does your return on investment, even when you are using a
shallow 2:1 regression ratio.
Again,
as your SRR improves over random, the higher your rate of return will be. Obviously, the better funded your session bankroll
is, the better you can take full advantage of your diceinfluencing skills. It
is important to note that each SRRlevel forces a different betreduction triggerpoint. While the SRR7 shooter has to immediately regress
his large initial bet after just two hits; the SRR8 diceinfluencer can reasonably keep
them up at their initial large size for the first three pointcycle rolls before having to
steeply regress them. Further to that, the
SRR9 PrecisionShooter can keep his big bet out there for four hits before regressing it
to a smaller value.
Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor

