“Sometimes the blindingly obvious is still difficult for some people to see.”
Genesis Revisited
The Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Method is designed for choppy tables and prescribes a short limit on allowable losses.
For that reason it is not made for warm-trending or hot tables where two or more shooters in succession are making two, three, four or more PL-Points in a row. If that were the case, I would have called it the Bet Against As Many HOT-Shooters As You Can Afford To Lose To Method.
There’s a “short leash” or short Loss-Limit on it because the improbable IS NOT the impossible.
It is structured to give you the best possible chance to make money, while concurrently putting a cap on the total amount of money that you are willing to invest in this random-roller venture.
When some people look at the total investment of $285 (at the $5 base-bet level), they see nothing but risk; yet those same people are willing to risk and lose just as much money (if not more) by using more conventional (but even more volatile) betting-approaches without a second thought.
Properly Appraising The Current Trend
A big part of successfully using the C-T/S-L Method is to be able to honestly appraise the current table trend.
Some people have a knack for it, and some people let their personal attitude and mental disposition unduly pre-influence any of their decisions. That can’t be good in a situation where you have to let the trend (and not your jaundiced attitude or viewpoint) set the stage for what I would call “momentum” style betting.
In situations where you are riding the trend or the momentum-wave, you have to be keenly aware of what is happening now, and where it fits into the grand scheme of things. If you play this game long enough, or you are conscious enough and attentive enough to observe the ebb and flow of how the dice get hot…get cold…get warm…and get cool; you’ll soon be able to anticipate the highs, the mid-points and the lows with astounding accuracy.
Properly gauging the speed, direction, momentum and likely peak or apogee of the current trend-wave (plus anticipating the next trough and the up-shift that follows that) offers plenty of decent betting prospects.
You have to sense them…you have to see them…and you have to bet with them if you so choose.
Now I am not saying that you’ll be able to predict what will happen on the very next roll. Rather, I am saying that if you become globally aware of how trends develop, peak and peter out; then over a period of time, your trend-spotting accuracy improves to the point where you are predominantly right and sometimes, though rarely, wrong.
With that in mind, it becomes blindingly obvious that the Choppy-Table/Short-Leash is not made for situations where random-rollers are throwing tons of Come-Out winners and a seeming unending cascade of Box-numbers.
- It’s made for those times when neither side is winning with any level of predictability or sustainability.
- It’s made for those aggravatingly frustrating times when a shooter makes maybe one or two Passline-Points and then 7’s-Out just after his next Come-Out.
- It’s made for those times when players are making a couple of Come-Out winners, but just can’t seem to get anything going as far as PL-Point production is concerned.
- It’s made for those “win-one, lose one” situations where Rightsiders and Darksiders alike are seeing their bankroll slowly eroded by the choppy conditions. THAT is when the Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Method shows its true colors.
Why It Works BECAUSE Of (And Not Despite Of) Casino-Math
In one of our Message Board discussions a reader (Craneshot)correctly observed that my C-T/S-L Method is quite close (as far as the math is concerned) to being a reverse of the Fire-bet (where a player has to hit every box-number to win a large payout). My Choppy-Table Short-Leash is indeed based on the same solid math that the casino uses in offering the Fire-bet. In doing so, the house knows (as do we) that there is a low chance of a player hitting the objective…but even if they do, the casino has earned enough off of that Fire-bet wager, and will CONTINUE to earn enough, to offset any losses they incur on the occasional big buck payout.
Likewise, the Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Method will sometimes lose, even on PROPERLY QUALIFIED choppy tables…there’s no getting around that fact…that’s why it’s not an unending “keep betting until you go broke” Martingale system. Though you do have to increase your bet after a loss, a reasonable Loss-Limit is applied to it simply because we KNOW that even the choppiest of tables can turn around without prior written notice or warning and become downright warm or even hot.
However those short-leash losses are quite easily overcome, offset and SURPASSED by money that you make from the times when it does work. It’s not rocket-science…it’s not voodoo…it’s just using the ebb and flow of properly qualified choppy conditions to garner a steady profit.
Be Prepared To Lose
- If you use the C-T/S-L Method all the time…you will lose!
- If you try to buck the trend when the table turns warm…you will lose!
- If you don’t properly pre-qualify the table and the trend…you will lose!
- If you don’t believe what I just said, and you insist on using it outside of it’s prescribed parameters…you will lose!
The C-T/S-L specifically keeps you from losing on back-to-back HOT shooters or warm-trending tables because (and quite obviously) the table is no longer choppy.
The genesis of WHY it generally works when it is supposed to (only on choppy and cool-trending tables), yet is still NET-Profitable despite the occasional $285 loss; is because…the math of the game…the strength of the 7…the volatility of occurrences…and its selected use at the proper time…affords an opportunity for us to actually seize upon the very erratic choppiness that the casino itself relies upon to make most of its craps pit money.
If neither side is winning in a predominant fashion, then the house is making money from both sides (Do and Don’t players alike). The C-T/S-L effectively harnesses that same 60%+ choppiness factor and accomplishes equivalent profitability for you.
Choppiness Ensures Casino-Corporation Profit
The choppiness of the game is exactly where the casino makes the lion’s share of its craps-table money.
The house generally doesn’t make much money off of hot tables (it generally experiences the largest loses during hot-streaks, so it has to make up for it during the other periods), and though it makes money from the cold ones, it doesn’t make as much as it theoretically should because after a while rightside-only players may not switch sides (as some are so loathe to do), but they’ll generally cut their betting back. It’s in that middle-ground choppiness (that occurs roughly 60%+ of the time) that pays for all the modern golden-hued Hanging Gardens of Babylon that we have come to call our favorite casinos.
The C-T/S-L tames that back and forth whipsaw choppiness into a viable betting prospect.
While most popular methods favor either hot or cold extremes for them to fair well; the Choppy-Table/Short-Leash addresses the toughest of conditions where the dice are an equal opportunity executioner to both sides. Used wisely and under the proper conditions…it performs as designed. Misused and applied to the wrong conditions…it quickly shreds your money into casino confetti.
Maintaining Perspective
“MP, I love this Choppy Table thing of yours, but it’s especially difficult for me to stand there while waiting for the shooter to 7-Out. Sometimes some of these guys throw some good rolls, and it’s very tempting to get in on it. How do you handle that temptation?”
On a choppy table, you are going see some shooters throw a string of numbers that might lead you to believe that the table is turning around and is headed in a warm-trend direction…as soon as you get your money on the table…bang…7-Out. That’s the cruelty of a choppy table. It fools you into thinking that it’s the right time to lay out the dough; in fact it is usually precisely one or two rolls before the wrong time. Choppy tables are pernicious and cruel like that because they lull you thinking that you’ve got it figured out and the choppiness snaps back to bite you in the ass. However, don’t feel bad…it has exactly the same effect on Darksiders as well.
Sometimes though, the tables will definitively be turning in either a hotter or colder direction. In that case you have to be savvy enough to be able to distinguish the real trends from the choppy imposters. If it’s real, you have to switch from a CHOPPY or COOL-trend betting-method like this one, over to one that is better suited to the now-prevailing trend.
Certain methods work at certain times, and fail miserably at others. Instead of being married to using just one method all the time, you have to be adaptable.
- If the trend is warm or hot then a warm or hot-trend betting-method is called for.
- Conversely, if the trend is cold or cool, then a cold or cool-trend approach must be used if you still want to be in action.
- Likewise, if the table is choppy, then a choppy-table method has to be used.
- Again, no one in their right mind says that you have to bet all the time (or AT ALL) on random-rollers…but if you do, then choosing the right method to use at the right time is critical.
The FIRST thing you have to do is to maintain perspective.
- You have to remember WHY you pulled the C-T/S-L series-trigger in the first place. It was because the table was trending cool or choppy. Under those conditions, it’s incredibly difficult to make ANY money let alone, not lose any. That’s perspective Number One.
Perspective Number Two is that you will sometimes see the shooter unleash a string of box-numbers that make you salivate. You wonder whether you should jump in, and try to exploit his current hand. While you already have money out on the table that is bet against him (and with the prevailing cool or choppy trend), your hunger for profit has you tempted with the prospect of collecting a couple of bucks from right-side Place-bets as well.
In this case, the perspective you have to maintain is that on choppy tables, the worst thing that can happen is that just as you convince yourself that it is safe to change betting-method mid-stream, and you put your money on the appropriate Place-bets or traveled Come-bets…then WHAMMO…the 7-Out shows up just as you knew it would under the choppy table conditions that you first reasoned was a good basis for applying the C-T/S-L in the first place.
Perspective Number Three is to recognize that a shooter may indeed knock off ALL of your C-T/S-L bets up to and including the $155 fifth-stage loss-limit. In that case, I’ll admit that it’s hard to maintain objectivity, but let’s give it a try.
- You are in a casino.
- You are willing to accept a certain amount of risk.
- Your bankroll is large enough to handle the occasional loss.
- You are using the C-T/S-L to augment your table time.
- You’re using this method when it’s properly qualified on a verified choppy or cool-trending table.
- You aren’t using it against skilled or Precision or Rhythmic–rollers so you don’t have to buck their skill level as well as the skew, volatility and variance of the game itself.
- You are waiting for the dice to cycle around back to you for your own shooting as your principal money-making route in the first place.
- All of that leads to the realization and perspective that in taking the risk by venturing any of your money on any random roller, you will sometimes lose.
All of that perspective forces you to properly qualify the table-trend before you venture Dollar One (no matter which betting-method you choose to use), and each subsequent C-T/S-L win helps you maintain that perspective along the way.
Navigating the Shifting Sand of Trends
One of your tasks as an astute player is to constantly be re-evaluating the trend even as you are betting against it.
To some people, the craps terrain looks pretty much the same all the time. To their untrained eye, they see numbers, they see winners and losers, they see hot streaks and cold trends, but never in a way so they know exactly where they are…where they want to go…and precisely how to get there. Instead they wander around, lost in the desert of seemingly random outcomes for 40 years (or as long as their craps playing dalliance lasts). They are like slack-jawed tourists that are lost in the desert without a compass, map, water or a guide. They not only don’t know the terrain, they don’t have any survival skills or instincts that go much beyond knowing how to call Room Service. It’s little wonder that they hardly ever find a path through all of that shifting sand…let alone accidentally finding the oasis of choppy-table profit.
By asking yourself if the trend is still the same (choppy) or whether it is starting to warm up (or cool down); and asking yourself if there are better (and less riskier) betting-prospects on either side of the dice (as opposed to hoping that the table turns choppy again before you get burned too badly), you are better positioned to apply the right betting-method at the right time instead of sticking with the wrong one way past the point when you should have transitioned into a more appropriate approach.
The seven-part Streaks, Trends & Opportunities series looks at multiple ways to better read and decipher what is happening at the table, and how best to take advantage of it at any given time.
You have to be ultra-aware of any changes to the current trend, and then respond appropriately.
The one short-coming of the C-T/S-L Method is that it gives a false sense of security to its user, and in turn convinces you or lets you think that the table is cool or choppy nearly ALL of the time. That clearly IS NOT the case, but greed has a way of clouding our vision and decision-making abilities when our money is in play.
In other words, greed clouds our perception.
When we see how great it works during choppy conditions, we just naturally want to see it continue generating profit…so we start expanding our definition of what constitutes a choppy table. In reality, we are only fooling ourselves and increasing our risk beyond the point for which this method was designed.
That’s why it is critically important that you balance your desire for MAKING money, against your aversion to LOSING money. When using the Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Method, that is the perspective that you need to maintain the most.
The Philosophy of Winning
A lot of this discussion may sound philosophical or at least “high-concept” in the way we look past the mechanical part of using this method (what to bet…what to do when a bet wins or loses…when to stop betting, etc.), and delve into the abstract concepts of when to use it (and equally, when NOT to use it) in addition to taking a critical look at our own perceptions, values, motivation and trend-awareness.
The plain truth is that the Choppy-Table/Short-Leash is much more than just a straight out mechanical wagering method. It makes you work for your money, and as in any randomly-rolled game, there is inherent risk.
The C-T/S-L REWARDS the savvy, the attentive, the discerning and the patient bettor, but it ruthlessly PUNISHES the greedy, the impetuous, the impulsive or the impatient player.
What this method does, is force you to sharpen your table-awareness to the point where you can so accurately gauge where the ever-shifting trend is right now, and where it will likely go in the nearest of short-terms. By doing so, some players suddenly start seeing the game from a whole new point of view. Others equate it to being able to see a certain kind of order in amongst the seeming chaos. In any event, increasing your trend-spotting awareness and momentum-gauging alertness to the ebb and flow of the game opens a whole new world of profit-opportunities. To my mind, the Choppy-Table/Short-Leash is just one more way that you can bring (seeming) randomness into exploitable focus.
The philosophy of winning with this method is based on having you develop your momentum-monitoring abilities to a point where you intuitively know where and when a trend started, where it has been in the meantime, where it is right now…how likely it is to stay there and for how long, in addition to reckoning where it is likely to go from there. Most importantly, it teaches you how to recognize a choppy or cool-trending table…and how to bet it in an exploitable way right now.
“Gee, I’m Glad I Wasn’t Using MP’s C-T/S-L Method Just Now”
If you are standing at a table long enough, you will no doubt see a streak where a random-roller does throw seven or eight or nine PL-winners in a row.
That event tends to stand out in your memory, and it seems like a perfect time to say, “Gee, I’m glad that I wasn’t using MP’s Choppy-Table Short-Leash Method just now”. Well, I’m glad you weren’t using it at that moment either, but you have to LOOK BACK on what preceded that scorching hand.
- Was the trend “choppy” or was it kind of warm?
- What makes that hand stand out against all the others that were being thrown during that session?
- Was every other random-roller throwing great hands too, or was this the only one during your entire time at the table?
- If the table was cool or choppy for a couple of hours, then someone (a RANDOM-roller) comes along and turns things around, then yeah, it is memorable…but what about the choppy table revenue that you SHOULD have been making for the past three hours…does that suddenly mean nothing now because a R-R finally threw a good hand?
- Was anyone making a Point or two before that or did this one shooter suddenly turn the table (and the trend) around? If it was cool or choppy before that (and not just selectively remembered as such), then yes, it would have been a bad thing if you were using the C-T/S-L…but you also have to know that it does not win all the time. We are in a casino…we are gambling…and we are wagering on random-rollers, which means we are wagering on random-outcomes.
- Even though the prevailing trend may not favor a bet with the dice, it does sometimes happen that a major turnaround can and does occur. I accept that risk, especially on properly qualified tables. Equally, I generally don’t use this method against any shooters who seem to have any dice-influencing skill, and I would strongly recommend that you do the same.
There will be times when a random-shooter suddenly unleashes the roll of the day. It can happen and it does happen, but you have to look at the big picture of all the other times when a hot hand isn’t being thrown. The reason they call them “hot” hands is because they don’t happen very often. If they were thrown all the time, then craps tables would be non-stop party-fests, and nobody would blow their nut. No one would leave because they couldn’t afford to.
Though hot hands do occur (and you can bet that I’ll have money on the table betting WITH the shooter when the dice start to sizzle), those hot ones just don’t come along often enough to keep your bankroll in random-roller heaven. Instead, they happen just frequently enough to keep most players HOPING that this hand or the next one or hopefully the one after that will be the hot hand that everyone needs to pull them back to even; but the sad fact is, if you take a look at the stats in Dodging Bullets as a Darksider – Part One, you’ll see just how infrequently hot hands occur.
You can look back on a hot hand that just finished and say, “Gee, I’m glad that I wasn’t using MP’s Choppy-Table Short-Leash Method just now”, but you have to ask yourself how many times you could honestly REPEAT that same statement during any randomly-rolled session versus the number of times the choppiness ground nearly everyone into casino dust. Now THAT’S the true measure of the C-T/S-L Method.
Intuitive Betting, Trend-Spotting and Windows of Opportunity
“MP, I read Lyle Stuarts book, “Casino Gambling For The Winner” as you strongly recommended. You were right, there’s no other gambling book like it. I noticed a link between his philosophy and yours, especially where streaks and trends are concerned. Do you think it’s because you’ve played the game for so many years that you are able to clue into the prevailing trend so easily and then bet on it that makes the difference? “
On one hand, I’ve seen guys who have been playing this game ever since the Romans were using the ankle-bones of sheep for dice…and they still can’t accurately gauge anything other than the hottest of the hot or the coldest of the cold streaks; so years of experience is not the be-all and end-all of being able to accurately decipher what the trend is.
In fact, endless years at the table will sometimes jaundice the trend-spotting eye of a player because they aren’t able to see the individual trees in amongst the sheer size of the forest. Their cynicism often blinds them to opportunities, and their attitude prevents them from seizing profit when it is well within their grasp. When the opportunity passes and the profit is no longer within range…they say stuff like, “See, I told you it wouldn’t last forever”. The thing is…in the casino, just as in life…opportunity rarely lasts for very long…and it certainly doesn’t last forever.
If you are going to bet on random-rollers, and if you are going to bet with the prevailing trend; then you have to understand that you are still putting your money at substantial risk. With the Choppy-Table/Short-Leash, you are giving yourself and the current trend a big enough opportunity to play itself out…to generate predictable and sustainable profit. It’s not guaranteed, it’s just highly probable.
My philosophy is that opportunities DON’T last forever, so you have to seize them when they are in front of you. While we all acknowledge that there is inherent risk for ALL casino wagers that we make; if we open our minds and expand our trend-spotting perceptions, it’s much easier to clue into those prospects and therefore capitalize on them at the most opportune time.
To my mind, all of those skills are developable just like Precision-Shooting. It takes time, patience and practice. As well, an open-mind and an unjaundiced attitude are critical. As with any other acquired talent, we learn from our mistakes and we build on our abilities.
Controversy and Regrets
“Mad Professor, are you a little surprised at the amount of response that your C-T/S-L Method has generated, and do you have any regrets as far as sharing it with everyone?”
The response has been quite strong and interest has been sustained.
When you consider that it’s really only designed for and useful with choppy or cool-trending tables, then yes, the amount of correspondence and controversy that it has spawned is a bit surprising.
Most players get KILLED by choppy tables, and I’m talking about right-siders and Darksiders alike. Place-bettors get slaughtered in equal proportion to DC and Lay-bet players…the chop is an equal opportunity bankroll-killer.
So when I came along and wrote about this fresh take on an old approach, a number of players jumped right in (head first) and tried it against too wide of a definition of what a cool or choppy table is.
Some even tried it under all table-conditions and found out exactly what I told them they would find out, and that is that you can’t use the C-T/S-L under every condition.
If the tables are trending warm or hot; then this is the WORST kind of bet you could be making…BAR NONE! It’s easy for me to say that because I proved it to myself WAY before I ever even considered writing about it. I validated when to use it and especially when NOT to use it (and strongly recommended that other players do the same by way of WinCraps), but many players have unsuccessfully tried to expand its use, or at least expand the definition of what a choppy table is. While their disappointment is lamentable, it’s not at all unexpected.
Some people choose to ignore the “packaging instructions” if you will, and try to force it to fit table-trends where it is wholly inappropriate. That’s NOT how the C-T/S-L works, in fact in most of those “square-peg-into-a-round-hole” situations IT WILL NOT WORK.
When you step outside those properly defined use-boundaries, your risk increases substantially, and you are no longer playing my method, but instead have adopted some perverse bastardized version of it whose risk/return ratio no longer resembles the original, and therefore the results will not be at all in line with where they should be.
That too is regrettable, but again it isn’t altogether unexpected. In the end, I’m happy to have shared it, but disappointed that it was so misunderstood.
As a quick side note…I continue to use the C-T/S-L, and it continues to generate a steady revenue stream that we first discussed in Dodging Bullets – Part Two. My base-bet is now usually at the $25 starting point (or $50 at bet-tolerant casinos with tables that have sufficient max-bet headroom).
Good Luck and Good Skill at the tables…and in Life.
Sincerely,
