More Questions From Cyber-Space

I was surprised that there were so many more questions AFTER I answered Questions From Cyber-Space . In response to that, here are a few more responses to your recent queries.

Question:

You wrote that you average about five rolls of the dice before you establish a Point.  How does the average shooter do for Come-Out rolls?

Answer:

Each random-shooter will average 2.5 Come-Out rolls per hand. But these will include repeats when craps (2, 3, or 12) or naturals (7 or 11) yield one-roll decisions, and new Come-Outs after Pass-Line Points have been made.

Question:

Don’t you get tired of all the comped gourmet meals?

Answer:

No, but I have to maintain a balance between intake versus physical activities.  I LOVE food.   It is part of my whole concept of enjoying life to the absolute fullest.  However, there is a difference between enjoyment and gluttony, and I haven’t crossed that line in years.

Question:

I really enjoyed your article about Casino Credit, how much credit should I establish to give myself the best possible chance to win?

Answer:

It all depends on HOW you bet, and how MUCH you bet.  I hope you’ll enjoy a couple of upcoming articles on determining how much “ammunition” you need to bring for your casino battles.  Until then, the old rule-of-thumb of 50 times your average bet multiplied by the anticipated number of sessions, should suffice until I can give you a more detailed worksheet.

Question:

If your average hand now lasts for 24 rolls AFTER the point has been established, what can I expect from a random-roller?

Answer:

The average length of a roll after a point is established, before either a Point is made or a 7 settles the bet, is just over two and one-half throws (2.57), and that’s VERY discouraging.

Question:

Have you ever seen people using tele-kinesis to control the dice.  Do you think it’s possible to use mind-over-matter to affect the outcome of the game?

Answer:

The Martians, Jupiterians, Saturnians, and Plutonians that I spoke to, all tell me that tele-kinesis does not work on their planet either.  But I hear that the Amazing Kreskin and Uri Geller are giving standing-room-only spoon-bending shows to the Alpha Centaurians, and they are loving it!

Question:

When you mention a specific casino in an article, do you think the casino minds?

Answer:

If it’s a negative comment, then they might look to improve their customer service based on my comments.  The exception would be for “no-setting” rules which some of them relish.  On the positive-comment side, I would think that my opinion carries less weight than most e-newsletters.

Question:

How many Place numbers (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10), should I expect from a normal-random player before they 7-out?

Answer:

Sadly, the average is just under two. The precise number is 1.97 Place numbers before the random guy tosses the 7-out.  That number is obviously discouraging for someone who wants to bet on every shooter, and it further points out why it is SO difficult to make money if you are just waiting for one lucky-chucker.  On the other hand, that number is precisely why I advocate Precision-Shooting.

Question:

Are you married?  If so, how does all the travel affect your marriage?

Answer:

I have a long-term girlfriend, and we frequently, but not always, travel together.  She likes the lifestyle as much as I do, and so it keeps things very harmonious.  My former-wife did not like the travel or the lifestyle or the fact that her husband was a “professional gambler.”  When I decided to make this a full-time endeavor, we chose to follow different paths, and we remain politely friendly.

Question:

How come you get such great comp offers in the mail?  My casino hasn’t sent me so much as a discounted room offer after twelve trips in five years with a total of $50,000 in losses.

Answer:

In further follow-up with this e-mail questioner, I discovered that he hadn’t yet read my Random Thoughts and More Random Thoughts articles.   Once he did, he called a friend of mine who is a Player Development Host at his “favorite” casino, and was given carte blanche run of the house for his upcoming visit.

Question:

During your Monte Carlo trip, you mentioned expenses of an Armani tuxedo and a $1,000 “gift” to a police officer.  What gives?

Answer:

The tux was because of a “black-tie only” party invitation that we received from the TAG-Hauer watch people.  The $1,000 “donation” was due to a party that got WAY out of hand at the L’Hermitage Hotel.  My balcony overlooked the swimming pool.  Several attendees with more booze than brains decided to use it as a launching platform to do some truly death-defying dives.  We saw first-hand what defying death REALLY meant.  Some divers were naked, while others were still fully-clothed.  As the naked ones made their way back up to my suite for the umpteenth time, the local constabulary was called in.  Anyway, the suite-holder, ME, is legally held to be responsible for his guests actions, no matter how stupid they are.  To avoid a messy situation, an on-the-spot “fine” was paid.   Order was restored, and the party continued, albeit, without anymore naked balcony-diving.

Question:

I see a lot of Point, then 7-Out type rolls.  Why?

Answer:

These hands are sometimes called a Continental Breakfast: two rolls, and NO coffee.  About 33.8% of random-rollers can be expected not to hit any Place numbers before making their Point or 7-ing-Out straight away.

Question:

On Irishsetter’s website, there is an ongoing discussion about the merits of the Martingale system.  What is your opinion?

Answer:

Martingale progressions are often applied to the Pass Line, Don’t Pass and to the Field.  Here are the chances of losing from 1 to 11 times running, using a $5 base bet with Martingale?

The chance of losing six successive Pass Line or Don’t Pass bets is 1.70% and at first seems pretty attractive. That means 17 out of 1,000 players are expected to go this far and be $315 in the hole, all in pursuit of a $5 win.  That is why I advocate the use of the Grand Martingale if this type of approach is to be used at all.

Question:

Why do you promote the GRAND Martingale method over the regular Martingale?  I don’t see a difference.

Answer:

With the Martingale, you win one unit for all your trouble no matter how long it took you to get there.  With the Grand Martingale, you win one unit for every roll or loss that you endure, until you finally and hopefully get to a win.  Neither method can be used all the time, but in the right situation, the Grand Martingale can generate very tasty profits.

Question:

I know what your opinion on tipping at the tables is, but what about the rest of the resort?

Answer:

If I Valet park, they usually keep my car right in front of the casino entrance.  I think they do this so that there is some automotive “eye-candy” for patrons to look at.   The more cynical person might say that they do that to warrant higher tips, and to show a little extra service, in hopes of a bigger tip.  I DO tip car-hops quite generously, and they know several of my cars on sight.  Most of them also remember a good-tippers face.  In my hotel room or suite, I usually leave a tip each day for housekeeping, and as a result, find an enormous quantity of towels, soaps, shampoos, lotions, sewing kits, magazines, bath robes, and slippers.  Again, when they see me over a period of several visits, they remember my face, and also recognize my name on the housekeeping-manifest checklist.   The concierge staff at a few resorts may know me, but I am not a very demanding or “high-maintenance” guest.  I tip them according to the services that they render.   Restaurant and showroom staff sometimes remember me on subsequent visits, but in a lot of cases, it’s the color of the ink on the reservation list which determines how you are initially treated.  That’s right, just as there is a difference between red versus green dice, if your name appears in “red” on the reservation list for a restaurant or showroom, it means you are there on a full comp, and your seating location is usually better.  When I step into the showroom and confirm my reservation with the maitre’d, I usually ask for a booth or a “ring-side table”, and add that I’ll “take care of the your man.”  That usually pretty much guarantees an excellent seat.

Question:

Do some casinos resent your consistent winning?  If so, how do they show it?

Answer:

A couple of “hurtin’ houses”, have expressed some derision towards me.  Places like the Frontier, Riviera, Las Vegas Club, San Remo, Las Vegas Hilton and Stratosphere have shown varying degrees of disdain and contempt for me.  However, I camouflage a good deal of my winnings now, and the heat seems to have dissipated somewhat.  In Reno, Lake Tahoe, Atlantic City, Mississippi, and Louisiana, there is less of that resentment because I play quite a bit less, so they don’t associate the disappearance of their money with my face as much as some of my regular Vegas haunts.

Question:

I read on Irishsetter’s excellent website that 12 rolls is the starting point for a good career as a professional.  Do you agree with him?

Answer:

It all depends on what numbers are showing up when you have your roll.   If they are “non-paying” numbers that you would not have normally bet on, then 12 rolls would be on the low-side of being able to supplement your income.  On the other hand, if they are “high-yield” payers, or there are a lot of repeating numbers, then you have the basis for a good beginning.

Question:

When you first “survey” a casino’s craps tables, do they ever stop you from making notes or entering stuff into your computer?

Answer:

I will usually sit at a nearby bar, lounge, sports-book, or non-gaming position to make very brief notes, and my computer-tablet is very small.  I haven’t run into any problems so far.

Question:

How many casinos and islands did you visit in total during your Caribbean trip?

Answer:

In the article entitled, Gilligan, the Skipper, and The Mad Professor you can read about the more than 30 casinos that we visited on seven Caribbean island-groups.

Question:

I’m developing a “hot-table-system” that I use only when a player has hit any twelve Place numbers during his roll.  It’s a great system that really pays, but I rarely get to use it.   Any advice?

Answer:

The chances of hitting over 12 numbers in one round is a mere 0.2%. That is two out of 1,000 random-rollers!  Here’s a chart that shows you just how difficult your situation is:

If you are waiting for twelve Place numbers to show up before you make bet number one, you’ll be waiting a long time between most bets.  The lion’s share of winning may have occurred at that point, and unless you find some good, consistent Precision-Shooters, your “hot-table-system” will usually be left waiting in the wings.  For that reason, you may want to try a more reasonable, but riskier three, four or five Place-roll waiting period.

Question:

I like reading about the various colorful characters in your articles.   I can relate to some of them, in fact, I think I’ve actually seen a couple of them in action.  Whatever happened to Pittsburg Johnnie?

Answer:

I am sure that there are a lot of people you run into who are just as interesting and colorful when you get to know them. Some of my craps-playing friends have been around since they used the ankle-bones of sheep for a pair of dice, or at least it SEEMS that way!  Pittsburg Johnnie is alive and doing well.  I understand that he is currently in the Reno/Lake Tahoe area for the next three or four weeks.

Question:

Are you a professional writer, and can you tell me where you learned how to write like you do?

Answer:

I’m smiling as I’m dictating this, because, I write exactly as I speak.  That may explain the amount of grammatical as well as syntax errors.  My language may be peppered with cliches, aphorisms, anecdotes and hackneyed images, but that is precisely how I talk.  I rarely edit my work, and my own directness, candor, cynicism and sense of humor is literally as you read it.  I am NOT a professional writer, nor do I receive any compensation for my work.  I am not writing a book or selling a course.  I am merely sharing my opinions and experiences with other people who may be as interested in improving their game as I am.

Question:

When are you going to revise and update the Mad Professor’s Playbook?

Answer:

You have to remember that I kept the original Playbook in my head, and didn’t write it down until you read about it right here on Irishsetter’s unparalleled site.  The revisions you speak of are the permutations and variations that I use in day-to-day situations.  There are about a dozen methods that I also should have added to the first book, but more importantly, is the way that I apply different approaches, or “mixed-methods” in various situations that a player would run into.  I think that choppy-table situations are the most frustrating for people, and I will focus on improving that part of your game with my Playbook II.

Question:

Why do you use the Captain’s 5-Count, and who is this Captain guy anyway?”

Answer:

More than 85% (87.2%) of all players 7-out before the 5^th “non-garbage” roll once the Point has been established.    If someone showed me a way to improve my chances to stay “alive” on the tables by that kind of margin, an intelligent person might be inclined to take a look at it.  That’s only my opinion.  I like keeping my money as MINE, and I also like making the casinos money, MINE!  The Captain and his A/C “crew” of wise-guys were real living breathing humans, and I’ve been respectfully asked not to write any details about them, which I have not done.  Another writer has covered their exploits admirably in several books and many articles.  With that being said, I can also state that I am still a STRONG proponent of the Captain’s 5-Count for random-rollers, and unproven dice-setters, but I also NEVER use it for my own rolls.

Question:

Do you think that with sites like Irishsetters and the Craps Pit etc. that the number of Precision-Shooters will increase dramatically?

Answer:

I think the number of “dice-setters” will rise dramatically in the next number of years.  In fact, at some casinos, dice-setting has reached the 40% mark, while in other places it is rare.  I have seen this high-ratio of “setters” first hand in the three Ontario and the three Detroit casinos. However, very few of these setters are Precision-Shooters, and even I have to be careful that I don’t get lulled into betting on them too early before they have “qualified” themselves.  Anyone can set the dice, but it’s the grip, the aim, the release, the target, the loft, the throw, the initial landing and the settling point which makes the difference and puts “fresh cake in your kick.”

Question:

Do you have to wear disguises when you play, and how do you camouflage your winning?

Answer:

I do not wear any disguises, but some chips do make their way into my pocket without being “colored up” at the end of play.  When I cash them out, it is done at a different time than the rest of my session bankroll, and sometimes I will have my girlfriend handle that task for me.  That’s all I’m prepared to say on that subject.

Question:

How many people have good 20-roll hands?

Answer:

About 2 percent of all random-shooters will have rolls longer than twenty throws.

Question:

What are your casino travel plans for the next six months?

Answer:

Currently I am enjoying the three Detroit, three Ontario and one Western New York casinos on a very light schedule.  I plan to play in Las Vegas, Laughlin, Primm, Jean, Mesquite, Reno and Tahoe though to December.  After that I’ll be in Hawaii for two months courtesy of the Boyd Gaming Group.

Question:

With all the roll-counting, profit-per-session calculations, sweet-spots, various betting methods, socializing with the dealers and other players, and everything else, how do you stay organized?

Answer:

After a while, it becomes quite easy.  You would be surprised at how focused and organized you can make yourself if your livelihood is solely derived from this game.

Question:

Where do you make the most money?

Answer:

Las Vegas has been VERY kind to the Mad Professor over the years.  Specifically, Caesars Palace, Mirage, Flamingo, Golden Nugget, Tropicana, MGM, Luxor, Bally’s and Stardust have each contributed princely sums to my bankroll.  On a strictly “profit-per-hand” basis, Harrah’s has been the most productive.

Question:

How do you decide where to travel to, and then decide which casino to play at, and  when?

Answer:

Ah, good question!  Sometimes I will begin to “miss” a particular place, like the classy solitude of Lake Tahoe, or running the waves of the Colorado River in Laughlin, or “shrimping” off of Biloxi’s Mississippi coast.  Sometimes some friends will invite me, like my recent Caribbean cruise.  And sometimes a certain comp will prompt me to go, like the Grand Prix of Monaco.  Deciding which casino to play at is a combination of “past performance”, curiosity at the new or untried, or a particular restaurant or show that I may want to take in.   The “when” part is entirely up to me, and I prefer “off” hours which offer more frequent shooting opportunities.

Well that’s all that’s in the mailbag today.  Remember that those e-mails written in crayon get priority my treatment.

Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

By:  The Mad Professor