
Dodging Bullets as
a Darksider
To Begin With…
I’ll start by
telling you this: The chance of a
randomroller making multiple Pointwinners in a row is as follows:
Ø
There is a 40%
chance that a player will make his 1^{st} PLPoint.
Ø
There is a 16%
chance that a player will make a 2^{nd} PLPoint in a row.
Ø
There is a 7%
chance that a player will make his 3^{rd} Point in a row.
Ø
There is a 3%
chance that a randomroller will make a 4^{th} winning PLPoint in a row.
Ø
There is a 1.2%
chance that a player will be able to make his 5^{th} PLPoint in a row.
Ø
There is a 0.5%
chance that a player will eventually make six PLPoints in a row. These numbers have
been roundedoff, and were kindly provided by Mike Shackleford (The Wizard of Odds) and
Alan Krigman (Winning Ways). At First
Glance…
The numbers
indicate that a randomrollers chances of putting together a long string of PassLine
winners, diminishes more and more as a hand progresses. Although each
random throw is totally independent from every other roll, the math of the dice are
inexorably drawn to an inevitable 7Out. While we never know
exactly when a 7Out will occur, we do know that each new roll in an extendedlength hand
brings us closer and closer to the unavoidable 7Out. Surely, armed with
this information, an astute craps player with a decent bettingmethod should be able to
derive somewhat of a relatively predictable profitstream.
You Asked For It
I get quite a bit
of email from readers asking for reliable “backline” betting methods. Using the numbers
that I just set out for you, we’ll take a look at one of my favorite DPmethods that
has always kept me in pretty good stead at choppy or cooltrending tables. Understanding My
Philosophy
At the craps table,
I mostly have to rely upon my own PrecisionShooting skills, ironwilled discipline and
conservative moneymanagement methods, to generate a steady and very lucrative income. I don’t bet on
poker, Sic Bo, blackjack, tennis, Red Dog, baseball, slots, Pai Gow, hockey, baccarat,
golf, beachvolleyball, Let It Ride, backgammon, motorracing, keno, or tiddlywinks. I don’t gamble on horseracing, football,
Caribbean Stud, yachtracing, greyhounds, lotteries, soccer, bingo, basketball, Threecard
Monte, rugby or unnatural sex acts. I only bet on
craps. Others may tell you
that you have to master some or all of those other games to be a “wellrounded
gambler”. I wouldn’t know; but I
can tell you that I personally only play craps to fuel a rather semiextravagant
lifestyle. If that confirms that I am NOT a
wellrounded gambler; then to my mind, that is GOOD thing.
I DO NOT want to be
a fulltime gambler who has mastered 38 different games, and still lives handtomouth. I earn all of my money from playing craps, and
specifically from PrecisionShooting. Instead
of being a jackofallgames, I would rather be the masterofone, especially because
PrecisionShooting can generate a sufficient income to grant a decent lifestyle (see my
Lifestyles
of the PrecisionShooter article). It is my objective
to engineer as much RISK as possible OUT of the game, and to GAMBLE as little as
possible, by perfecting my craft. Some people
love the thrill of casinoRISK. I get my
thrill from consistent casinoPROFIT. The difference is
not subtle; but it is tangible, especially to your wallet. Some people like
the prospect of throwing the dice while they have one eye on the TV monitor for the
basketball game; the other eye on the Kenoboard; one earjack tuned into the baseball
game on their Walkman; while the other earpiece is linked to the nightly Lottery, Hockey
and Racetrack results; and their beeper is subscribed to several sportstout services. In the meantime, they use their unoccupied,
nondiceshooting hand to ensure that their bingodauber, Lucky Lottery NumberPicking
machine, and Daily Racing Form hasn’t fallen out of their pocket. If you aspire to
that kind of professional gambling lifestyle, then you are probably on the wrong website,
because you are DEFINITELY reading the wrong article!
If you eke out a living by following that path, then I’ll sincerely
wish you the best of luck. Oops, I just
realized that I forgot to add Roulette and the Big 6 Wheel to the list of “must
have” gambling skills that the “wellrounded gambler” is supposed to
have. Anyway, we take a look at that entire
subject in my
Professional PrecisionShooter vs FullTime Gambler
article. Let’s focus on
making some money from craps. Maximizing
Opportunities
If you’ve read
my
Flushing Money Down The RandomRoller Toilet
article,
you know that the lions share of my income is derived from my own shooting (~80%), other
qualified PrecisionShooters (~15%), and a much smaller portion comes from the lucky
throwing of randomrollers (~4.5%). Clearly then, I try
to maximize my shooting opportunities by playing at sparselypopulated tables. In addition, I often employ a hitandrun method. I’ll use that “shoot ‘n’
scoot” approach, especially if the table starts to fill up while I am shooting, and
it doesn’t looks like I will get the dice again for a fair bit of time, unless of
course, all of the players pass the dice right back to me.
However, there are
times when I’ll want to stay at a particular table, especially if I’ve got it
dialedin and substantial profits (but still within the “tolerable”
comfortlevels of the casino) have been flowing my way.
While most casinos
will allow you to stay at your spot with little or no betting action, some are much less
tolerant. If I choose to bet
at all on any randomrollers, and the table has been choppy or trendy “cool”,
then I’ll possibly venture onto the Darkside. What is the
Temperature?
The game of craps
is very streaky:
Ø
The dice are
“red hot” about 4% of the time.
Ø
The dice are
“ice cold” about 6% of the time.
Ø
The table
“trends warm” about 20% of the time.
Ø
The table
“trends cool” about 30% of the time.
Ø
The tables are
“CHOPPY” about 40% of the time. I’m not going
to get into long explanations about the definition of each of these terms. They are discussed elsewhere on this site in very
fine detail. The important thing to note is
that the tables are mostly in that centerground area of choppiness or cooltrending about
70% of the time. What Are The
Chances?
Remember, we are
specifically talking about ANY and ALL randomrollers grouped together. Let’s take a closer look at what the numbers
tell us: 1^{st}
Point
There is a 40%
chance that a randomroller will make his first PLPoint.
So 2outof5 players, or 4outofevery10 shooters are likely to make
their first PLPoint. 2^{nd}
Point
There is a 16%
chance that a randomroller will make his second PLPoint in a row. So 4outof25players, or 1outofevery 6.25
shooters are likely to make their second PLPoint. 3^{rd}
Point
There is a 7%
chance that a randomroller will make his third PLPoint in a row. So 7outof100 players, or 1outofevery 14.28
shooters are likely to make their third PLPoint. To put that in
perspective, an average fulltable will have about fourteen players at it, and you can
expect that overall, one of them will throw three PassLine Pointwinners. 4^{th}
Point
There is a 3%
chance that a randomroller will make his fourth PLPoint in a row. So 3outof100 players, or 1 outofevery 33.3
shooters are likely to make their fourth PLPoint. 5^{th}
Point
There is a 1.2%
chance that a randomroller will make his fifth PLPoint in a row. So 1outof83 players are likely to make their
fifth uninterrupted PassLine Point. To put that into
perspective, that means that in six trips around a full 14player table, only
ONE player will probably make five PLPoints in a row. 6^{th}
Point
There is a 0.5%
chance that a randomroller will make their sixth PLPoint in a row. So only 1outof200 randomrollers are likely to
make six PLPoints in a row. Remember, these
numbers refer only to PLPoint winners. It
specifically ignores the ComeOut roll where a 7 or 11 is a winner, and a 2, 3 or Barred
(pushed) 12 is a loser for the PLthrower (and just the opposite for the DPplayer). Right now we are
just looking at his chances of making multiple PLPoints in a row. Don’t worry; we will factor in ComeOut
winners and losers very shortly. What Do These
Numbers Tell Us?
These numbers tell
us that a Darkside player has a better chance of scoring a win AFTER a randomroller has
thrown one PLwinner. In other words, your
best chance to win would come if you bet against a player AFTER he makes one PassLine
Pointwinner. Let me put it in
simple terms. When a new shooter
has the dice, he only has a 40% chance of making his first PLPoint. We avoid making any bets during his first
Pointcycle. If he makes his first PLPoint,
then the astute Darksider proceeds to subsequently bet against the randomroller on the
Don’t Pass Line, because that shooter’s prospects of making a second PLPoint
winner is now only 16%. By bypassing a new
shooters first Pointcycle, the DPplayer stands to profit consistently when the shooter
tries to make his second PLPoint. If by
chance the shooter manages to make that second Point, the DPbettor knows that the
prospect of the same randomroller successfully throwing a third PLwinner is now
approximately 7%. That means that only one
out of every 14 players will manage to get this far. This
numberdiscussion really is leading us somewhere…so just bear with me a little longer
as I pour the foundation for what is actually a very decent method. A Logical Solution
If you believe that
“7” is the most powerful number in craps, and you want a way to capitalize on
it; then the logical solution is to take full advantage of it. This is NOT a new
concept, and it is NOT an earthshattering neverfail method, but it sure does work most
of the time. Most importantly, it provides a pretty
steady profit, with minimalrisk, if that sort of thing appeals to you. Don’t Take My
Word For It
The method that I
am about to show you not only works well in realworld Choppytable or cooltrend
situations; it does just as well in computer simulations like WinCraps. Just set the proper
parameters of what accurately qualifies as a choppytable or cooltrend situation; then
apply my ChoppyTable ShortLeash method. When
the trend changes, we simply stop betting on the Darkside until the choppytable or
cooltrend situation arises again. My ChoppyTable
ShortLeash Method
As usual, I’ve
used the lowest common tableminimum ($5) as the basis to explain this bet, and I would
caution you that your bankroll should be sufficient (at least $5000) before you even
consider using this method. When the table is
choppy or trending cool, here is the betting sequence that I currently use:
Ø
Wait until a
randomroller makes one PassLine Point.
Ø
Then, we make a $5
Don’t Pass bet (no Odds).
Ø
If our bet wins,
then we wait for the next player to make one PassLine Pointwin, and we start the process
over again.
Ø
If our first DPbet
loses; then we increase our Don’t Pass bet to $15 (no Odds).
Ø
If our second
DPbet loses; then we increase our Don’t Pass bet to $35 (no Odds).
Ø
If our third DPbet
loses; then we increase our Don’t Pass bet to $75 (no Odds).
Ø
If our fourth
DPbet loses; then we increase our Don’t Pass bet to $155 (no Odds).
Ø
If our fifth DPbet
loses; then we stop betting on randomrollers for that session with a cumulative $285
loss. Remember, that I generally use this
method if I want to stay at a table to shoot again, and the table is choppy or cool. Why Use this Method?
You’ll
probably recognize this bettingapproach as a shortleash Grand Martingale. Yes, I said the “M” word, and I know
that “Martingale” is truly a dirty word for most bettors. But indulge me for a moment, and I’ll show
you why it is so compelling; why it is generally profitable; and why the infrequent losses
won’t prove fatal to your sufficient bankroll. How Often will
Lightning Strike?
How often will
someone throw six PassLine Point winners in a row, and wipe out $285 worth of your
bankroll? The answer, is that
1outofevery200 players will accomplish that particular feat. We’ll address
the effect of the ComeOut roll 7’s and 11’s in a moment. Do LayOdds Fit In
Somewhere? Yes, but not with
this method. In “Part Two”
of this series, we’ll look at a Darkside method that gets us safely past the ComeOut
roll unscathed; then uses a unique approach to Odds by inversely matching them to the
relativerisk that a DPplayer faces as a randomrollers hand progresses. OddsBet vs.
Martingale Progression
Many people who see me occasionally using this method in a casino ask, “Isn’t
it better to use your money to Lay Odds instead of leaving your Martingaleprogressed
Linebets ‘naked’?” That’s a good
question. Let’s see if
the numbers bear that out. Take a look at what
happens to the same amount of money in a winning situation on a 3x/4x/5xOdds table
(or where 6x LayOdds are permitted).
The Grand
Martingale yields one unit ($5) of profit for EACH subsequent loss, while
the DPwithOdds gets worse and worse as you throw more and more
money at it. Again, don’t
take my word for it, do the math for yourself, or run some computer simulations with
WinCraps. Getting Past The
Sheriff and the Deputy
The worst part
about betting on the Don’tPass Line is that you have to get past the Sheriff (the 7)
and his Deputy (the 11) on the ComeOut Roll. We know that the 7
is numerically expected to show up 1outofevery6 rolls, and the 11 is expected
onceevery18 rolls. This is partially offset
by the 2 (1outof36 rolls) and the 3 (1outofevery18 rolls) when they roll as DP
ComeOut winners. That means that the
DPplayer is at a pretty lofty 45.5% disadvantage on the ComeOut roll. While today’s
ChoppyTable ShortLeash method does not overcome that initial disadvantage, it is offset
by the overriding benefit that the DPplayer enjoys against a randomroller trying for his
second Point (+84% advantage), third Point (+93% advantage), and fourth Point (+97%
advantage), etc. Again, I’ll
remind you that this method works best on choppy tables or where the dice are moving
towards the coolside of the trend equation. Risks and Rewards
While there is no
guarantee that a lucky shooter won’t come along and wipe out your $285 session
investmentlimit, it doesn’t happen often. By waiting for a
randomroller to make his first PassLine Pointwinner before we bet against him on a
choppy or cooltrending table, we move our own chances of winning (and profit) one BIG
step further up the probabilityscale. By using a Grand
Martingale progression (double, plus one unit), we ensure that we aren’t just betting
to earn one unit of profit. Rather, we are
earning one unit of profit for EACH loss that we endure on our way to winning. This
“everincreasingprofit” scale works to offset the ComeOut Roll disadvantage
and the occasional 1in200 lucky rollers who make more than six PassLine Points. Reasonable Limits
By limiting the
ChoppyTable ShortLeash method to five steps of betting, we ensure that our
wageringexposure doesn’t spiral out of control, and it keeps our bankroll from being
smashed to smithereens. In addition, I need
to remind you that you CANNOT play this method all of the time! You need to wait for choppy tables or a
cooltrend, and you need to stop betting with this method if the table starts to warm up. Remember that to be
successful on the Darkside, you have to continually dodge bullets. In this case, if you are always going deep into
the progression (past the 3^{rd} or 4^{th} bettingstep), then the table
is probably warming up, and this method obviously becomes vulnerable to failure at that
point. Look at it from
this perspective: if several players in a row are each throwing three or four PassLine
Pointwinners, then the table is DEFINITELY turning WARM, and it’s well past the time
to switch bettingmethods. Simply Put…
This is a method
that is perfectly suited to the random gyrations of realworld casino tables. When you apply it to the right conditions, it is a
consistent moneymaker, and it’s an excellent way to dodge bullets when you are
playing on the Darkside. Good Luck &
Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. Sincerely, The Mad Professor

