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D'ya Wanna Win, or
D'ya Wanna Gamble? In
Part I of
this series, I left you with something to think about: The
reason most skilled Precision-Shooters dont make more money, is because of the way
that they BET, and NOT the way that they SHOOT! This
series of articles will help you to map out a path to a profit-destination where your
Precision-Shooting efforts are matched with proper betting methods. Im going to show you, step-by-step,
HOW to LOSE LESS, and WIN MORE, all-the-while using LESS MONEY to achieve HIGHER PROFIT. Hope
versus Reality Many
times, you have probably seen your own substantial profits reduced or eliminated simply
because of the BELIEF and HOPE that a hot hand may be developing, only to be disappointed
when it vaporizes, and your profit evaporates right along with it. We
have all fallen victim to leaving too much money out on the table when the inevitable
7-Out rolls along. Many times, bets are left
up, and the 7 shows before we have enough additional hits to even cover the bets that we
have on the layout. This may even be true if
we regress our bets after one or two hits, simply because the regression wasnt deep
enough to sufficiently cover our remaining exposure. That
is where the reality of gambling meets our hopeful plans for
profit. This series of articles is designed
to not only address those concerns, but I will show you how to actually do something
positive about it. Now
that we know how the pressures of gambling affect us, lets look at some actionable
ways to move our craps play a little further into the profit-zone. Percentage-Shooting
vs. Mere Superstition
Lets
get one thing straight right here. If
some particular Signature Numbers dominate your dicesetting efforts, then they
LEGITIMATELY fit into your betting methods. We
exhaustively discuss this subject in my
The When, Where,
Why, What and How of Signature Numbers Part I and
Part II . Your Signature Numbers are reasonably and
rightfully justified to be in your betting-approach.
However, if you are a slave to betting-superstitions, then you have to
honestly gauge JUST HOW MUCH your superstitions, gut-feelings, hunches and gambling-urges
are actually costing you. Betting
on your own Signature Numbers is one thing. However,
banking on superstitions, especially when they pertain to betting MORE money on a
random-roller is something completely different. Let
me give you an example that should make it easy for you to judge the difference between
the two. Lets
say that you are a Precision-Shooter who has noticed that trash (craps)
numbers seem to show up in streaks of several occurrences in a row when you are throwing
the dice. In that event, some well-timed and
aggressively-pressed Horn-bets should probably be in your wagering-repertoire. One of the keys to sustainable and consistent
profit, is the ability to recognize and use your dicesetting skills and your well-defined
Signature Numbers to make sound betting-decisions. These
wagering choices are based on the dominant numbers that you actually throw, and are NOT
based on the superstition, hope and hunch that one low-occurrence Horn Number
usually follows another. How
Much Does See a Horn, Bet a Horn Cost?
Please
understand that I am not attacking this betting method or the person who coined it. In fact, that phrase has gained alarming
popularity at a huge number of North American casinos where the stickman frequently now
use it as a come-on for everyone to bet the center Props area. Not surprisingly, the growing size of the flock
that blindly follows the stickmans exhortation is bewildering to the casual observer, and
VERY profitable FOR THE CASINO. As
I just stated, if certain recurring low-occurrence outcomes figure into your Signature
Numbers, then it is reasonable and RECOMMENDED that you INCLUDE them in your betting
methods when you are betting on yourself or any other talented and qualified
Precision-Shooter whom also throws a lot of the same recurring numbers. However,
for this exercise, we are talking about when you blindly apply superstitious
betting-methods to nearly every random-roller in the HOPE that one low-occurrence
craps-number will immediately be followed by another.
The question becomes: When
a random-roller throws one Horn Number, does another Horn Number immediately repeat OFTEN
ENOUGH to warrant and justify the expense? Lets
take a look:
Ø
A
Horn Number (2, 3, 11 or 12) will show up on average about 6 times every 36 rolls of the
dice. That 1-in-6 occurrence frequency is
equal to the regularity of the 7.
Ø
The
See a Horn, Bet a Horn philosophy holds that if someone rolls a Horn
Number, then you follow it up with a Horn bet.
Ø
Lets
say that you use the minimum bet of $4 for this venture.
Ø
At
a normal table, the dice will roll about 110 to 150 times per hour. Lets take the lower figure of 110 rolls per
hour.
Ø
That
means that the Horn Numbers will roll approximately 18 times during that one-hour period.
Ø
We
multiply 18 by $4 for each time that we See the Horn. That totals $72 that we have wagered.
Ø
For
random-rollers, we will see a Horn Number repeat one right after the other about 3 times
during that same hour. Thats when the
See a Horn, Bet a Horn actually pays off.
Ø
The
weighted-average payout on the Horn is $16 dollars (on average $11 will be paid 4/36
rolls, while $26 will be paid 2/36 rolls).
Ø
Take
that to its next logical step, and youll multiply the $16 average payout by
the 3 times that one Horn Number will immediately follow another Horn Number during the
hour, and it will generate $48 in revenue. Subtracting
our initial $72 cost from our $48 return, we see that the net-cost is about -$24 per hour. Now
obviously twenty-four bucks an hour will not kill us, in fact, most people earn more than
that per hour in their daytime jobs, but the point I am trying to make is that even a
seemingly innocuous betting approach like the See a Horn, Bet a Horn
superstition will cost you money on random-rollers. That
means that your own Precision-Shooting efforts have to be $24 per-hour BETTER, just to
break even. Just
in case you were wondering how often three Horn Numbers follow one right after the other;
the answer is, about once every two hours (216 rolls).
Now
if you add up any other high-vig wagering that you do, you will see that the cumulative
cost just might be holding back your Precision-Shooting profit. Why
Common-Sense Wont Change MOST Peoples Minds
The
reason that sound reasoning usually fails to change gamblers minds about the way that they
play or the way that they bet, is because they remember the one time when they actually
made a huge hit on a quadruple Horn Parlay, or because they heard of a guy who is the
friend of a friend who knows a guy that hit one a couple of months back. Yes, it does happen occasionally, but for bets on
random-rollers, it doesnt happen often enough to justify the cost. Again,
if you like the thrill of risking and losing over the boredom of
steady and consistent winning, then nothing or no one will be able to change your
mind, and it certainly wont stop you until you run out of money. This one fact alone guarantees that the casinos
will be there 24 hours a day, 7 days a week to take your money. Even
though the simplest of explanations like this one will not change most gamblers minds
about the efficacy of high-cost, high-erosion wagers, if even one person benefits by
taking a serious look at the REAL cost of their betting-methods and changes their approach
to more closely match their current skill, then I have succeeded in getting you to think
about what it is that you are doing with YOUR money! Crazy
Betting Actually HELPS Other Precision-Shooters
If
you are the type of person who bets in the way that I just described, you may actually be
helping other Precision-Shooters. You
accomplish this by helping to raise and maintain the tables Hold percentage. Hold
is the gaming-industry term for the amount of money that the table Wins from
all of the players. Its usually
expressed as a percentage of the Drop. The
Drop is the amount of cash that players buy-in for, and that is literally
dropped into the drop-box through the hole in the table in front of the
boxman. When the amount of cash that is
dropped into the box is subtracted from the net amount of chips that the table-bank
started with at the beginning of the shift, you have the table Hold. This
profit figure is calculated on a shift-to-shift basis, and is reviewed by the General
Manager along with his Shift Managers on a daily basis.
Generally, a craps table will hold about 25% of the drop. That means that the profit-margin for an average
craps table is about ¼ of the total cash that it converts to chips. Yes, that 25% profit-figure includes all the
winners, all the losers, all the players that move from table to table and game to game
with all of their chips, plus it includes all of the line-of-credit and front-money
players, in addition to all of the coupons and match-play certificates that are redeemed
at the tables. People
are almost always shocked when they hear that this 25% figure holds true year in and year
out, because theyve always read that craps and baccarat are some of the lowest-vig
games in the house. While that is true of
simple low-cost PL and DP bets; the cyclic-erosion rate from all of the higher-vig bets
like the Horn, World and Hardways bets add up to ensure that the craps tables remain quite
profitable. The
more often that you make center-of-the-table bets on random-rollers, the more you ensure
steady profits for the casino, and LOSSES for YOU! By
making those high-vig, low-occurrence bets, you actually permit your savvier
Precision-Shooting brethren to extract MORE profit from their own shooting, without
casino-management noticing any decline in actual table-profits. Again,
Ill remind you: The
reason most skilled Precision-Shooters dont make more money is because of the way
that they BET, and NOT the way that they SHOOT! In
Part Three well continue our journey towards ACTUALLY WINNING, and
away from MERELY GAMBLING. Until then,
Good
Luck and Good Skill at the tables
and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor
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