Dice Setter Precision Shooter’s Newsletter: February 2006

From  Soft Touch – “Rules To Play By” 

Hello Everyone!

We are all aligned toward a common goal.  Together, we move toward a common destination.  As long as sites like ours exist, creativity and new ideas are formed.  It is nice to see cooperation and harmony on our message boards. 

Here are some things to ponder to increase our effectiveness on our board and at the tables.

• Let’s find joy in our game, whatever the outcome.
• Let’s continue to positively encourage and support one another in and out of the casinos.
• Let’s appreciate our differences, acknowledge each member’s contributions.
• Let’s not block our creativity with judgment and negative criticism.  We want to break down those walls that prevent us from becoming the great player we wish to become.
• Let’s remember that sometimes it is more powerful just to listen than to be heard.
• Let’s speak from and play with our hearts. This is where we find our true answers.
• Let’s remember that in each, the whole is greater than the sum of our parts.

I would like to thank everyone for their kind comments and praise. The transformation of our Dicesetter.com site will be unveiled on March 1^st. 

Happy Valentine’s Day

Soft Touch

PS If you have any suggestions for the website or newsletter please send them to

Ed@dicesetter.com and I’ll see how we can incorporate them into our future plans.

Newsletter Update

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Editor

Dice Setter Precision Shooter’s Newsletter

Ed@dicesetter.com

Mad Professor’s Book: Crapshooting Bible

By The Mad Professor

With the upcoming release of my new book, Soft Touch asked if I’d give you a short peek inside.

The first thing I can say about my Crapshooting Bible is that many readers will be surprised at the amount of new material that supports and augments some of the content that I’ve previously posted. 

Initially, Stanford Wong and I both envisioned a slightly updated, highly edited, and heavily indexed version of my original MP Speaks articles.  However, with each distillation came fresh additions, and with each refinement came new revisions; so in its final draft, fresh material constitutes a significant portion of the content.

Although the first two chapters explain the basics of the game and the concept of dice-influencing from my perspective; all the other chapters deal exclusively with how to turn the casinos money into your money.

There is NO filler, NO fluff, NO hyperbole, NO celebrity-spotting, and absolutely NO superfluous material.  It is 100% how-to-get-it and how-to-keep-it substance with ZERO bull. 

 This book is all about advantage-play craps…how to develop your skills and how to continually improve them…how to match your skills to your bets…and how to bet in proportion to that skill and to your current bankroll. 

• My approach to helping you improve every part of your game is to show how each element seamlessly fits into and builds upon even your smallest dice-influencing successes.
• I show you easy-to-learn, easy-to-replicate real-world methods that build on your success one step at a time.
• I have also included a number of easy-to-diagnose exercises to help you to figure out not only what you are doing wrong and how to cure it, but also what you are doing right…and how to make those right moves more consistently repeatable when real money…YOUR real money is on the line.

Whether it be the 34 pages dedicated just to dice-grips, or the 39 pages that cover every aspect of toss-dynamics, or the 43 pages devoted to developing highly-influenced, highly-correlated, and highly-consistent throws; everything you need to develop and reliably deliver a money-making toss is right there on the pages. 

Armed with your precision-shooting abilities, the next two chapters deal with what to actually do with your skills.  I’ll tell you right now that these 75 pages contain a TON of new never-before-discussed material that will literally blow the socks right off of your feet.  These two sections should come with their own medical warning…that’s all I’m prepared to say about these two chapters at this point. 

The next four chapters cover all the things that enable you to turn your player-edge, no matter how small, into real and tangible profit.  It’s packed with stuff that some of you are already familiar with, as well as a number of methods that I currently use but have never discussed before in any of my previous articles or postings. 

No discussion about the Crapshooting Bible would be complete without including the online AdvantageQuest DiceTool.   

As I’ve explained before, this advantage-play utility is designed to be used by players after they have tracked their throws with any of the various roll-tracking programs that are available out there (the book also contains an ingenious, non-bothersome way to accurately track your in-casino Foundation Frequencies). 

I personally prefer Maddog’s excellent BoneTracker software for my practice-session roll-tracking and set-transposition purposes.  Armed with the data that B-T provides, a player simply fills in five blank spaces in the AdvantageQuest DiceTool and the online software does all the work for you in terms of comparing each and every possible dice-set with each and every possible bet that is available on the layout and compares it to your current dice-influencing skills. 

You then decide for yourself which dice-set, permutation, and wager(s) are just right for YOU. 

I’ll tell you quite frankly that the applied use of AdvantageQuest results quite literally changed my game overnight.  Not only did my Rightside-profit immediately jump by more than 30%, but the time that it took to earn that additional money dropped by a similar amount. 

In other words, 30% more money in 30% less time, resulting in more winning and less losing, all accompanied with more predictability and less volatility…and that was just the beginning. 

Once I had a chance to fine-tune my bets and wager-sizing a little further, using exactly the same amount of money as before but deploying it much more intelligently and efficiently; I was able to wring crazy amounts of profit out of the same Rightside-shooting skills…all in a much shorter period of time.  The AdvantageQuest DiceTool helped me focus my betting on my strongest plays, and it can do the same for you.  The added bonus is that A-Q lets you plainly see the weakness or vulnerability of any bet-strategies that may be unwittingly eroding or impeding your advantage-play revenue stream. 

And speaking of bonuses, there’s a nine-page Appendix of easy-to-understand charts as well as an exhaustive eight-page cross-referenced index and an eleven-page Table of Contents that ties everything together. 

Stanford Wong’s Pi Yee Press is planning to release The Mad Professor’s Crapshooting Bible in the late Spring of this year.   

I hope you enjoy it.

The Mad Professor

Shooting from the Don’t…A Journey of Opportunity – Part 12

by the Mad Professor

In accordance with the informal pact that I made with a group of players who frequent the small tribal casinos of Northern Michigan and Wisconsin, not to openly trumpet just how incredibly good the tables are in those known-only-to-a-few gaming-houses; I’ll keep the details about the outstanding WI playing-conditions to an absolute minimum, and instead continue to focus on the technical aspects of Darkside-shooting.  However, next months Don’t-side cross-continent journey takes us into a different jurisdiction, so we’ll resume the highly-detailed playing-condition reports that have been a hallmark of this series.

My Don’t-side Dairyland Chronicles

Driving the considerable distances between the far-flung casinos of Wisconsin gave me a chance to fully indulge my eclectic musical tastes for hours at a time.  From Aker Bilk, Toots and the Maytals, Bare-Naked Ladies and Jean-Luc Ponty…to The Dead Kennedys, Bedouin Soundclash and Angry Samoans…all the way to David Hickey and John McLaughlin. 

The driving distances also let me “blue-sky” a couple of new Dark-shooting concepts as well as coming up with a few untraditional applications for some time-honored not-so-new ones.  After all, this journey is largely a cross-continent experiment designed to push the envelope of what works, what doesn’t work, and what works best when it come to profitably shooting from the Don’t.

As I’ve mentioned many times before, there are any number of terrible random betting-methods out there that are perfectly adaptable to and make perfect sense for advantage-play dice-influencers. 

It was with that in mind that I wanted to conduct some further experimentation with a couple of traditional methods that have fallen into discredit and disuse now that Precision-Shooting has become firmly entrenched among well-informed advantage-players.

One of those neglected betting-methods is the…

3-Point Molly Don’t  

This is the Darkside version of the traditional 3-Point Molly where a Do-side player makes a bet on the Pass-line and then follows it up with two additional Come-bets.

 Here on the Darkside, this method would entail making a Don’t Pass bet with Odds, and then two Don’t Come bets, again with Odds.

 So why would I even consider using such a simple method after experimenting with and validating far more sophisticated Don’t-side betting-methods?

 Well, as I mentioned a moment ago, this journey is largely an experiment designed to push the advantage-play envelope of what works, what doesn’t work, and what works best when it come to profitably shooting from the Don’t; and I had my suspicions that this particular gaming approach could hold tremendous profit if given a fair assessment.

Here’s why: 

•  When I looked back over my gaming stats for the multiple jurisdictions I had been Dark-shooting in so far on this trip (Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario, New York, and Michigan); I saw that it was taking less and less time during the point-cycle portion of my hand to intentionally 7-Out. 
•  That is, my roll-stats indicated that once my PL-Point was established while using my come-out “Game Within A Game” profit-making approach; it was then taking an average of 2.8 rolls after establishing the PL-Point before intentionally 7’ing-Out.  That 2.8 point-cycle roll-average includes the final 7-Out toss itself. 
•  If you back out the final hand-ending 7-Out, that leaves 1.8 non-7 and non-DP-Point-repeating rolls per point-cycle. 
•  Those 1.8 non-hand-ending rolls per point-cycle are an important benchmark in terms of structuring betting-methods that recognize just how long my average DP point-cycle will last when I am intentionally trying to keep that portion of the hand as short as possible. 
•  In other words, if I have an average of 1.8 heart-of-the-point-cycle rolls, any Darkside betting-method that I consider using, has to recognize and accommodate that aspect. 
•  Based on that, I figured I could possibly profitably exploit a portion of those mid-hand non-7 point-cycle rolls by establishing a traveled Don’t Come bet with Odds before 7’ing-Out, and thereby increase the average-profitability of each hand. 
•  Obviously I had to be cognizant of the fact that any of my Don’t-Come bets would be susceptible to unintentional “early” 7-Outs while they were still in the Don’t-Come box.

Additionally, I was aware that my usual point-cycle dice-set permutations were loaded with tons of non-box-numbers, and although I would get an instant-paying bonus if a 2 and 3 came up while one of my wagers was still in the D-C box; it also meant an instant loser for the same wager if an 11 (or 7) showed up instead.

So it was with all of that in mind that I gave the ?-Point Molly Don’t method some careful consideration.  Obviously, the first thing I had to figure out was how many “D-C points” per-hand I could reasonably afford to establish.

Here’s what I was dealing with in terms of 25 days worth of in-casino roll-stats from Northern Michigan: 

After reviewing my most recent in-casino stats, the first thing I realized was that trying to get away with a 3-Point Don’t-side Molly (one Don’t Pass bet plus two Don’t Come wagers) was way too dangerous in terms of the number of Don’t Come bets that would have been left “stranded” when my intentional point-cycle 7-Out’s rolled. 

In other words, my intentionally low SRR would work against the idea of establishing more than one Don’t Come wager during the point-cycle simply because most attempts to establish an additional DC-Point beyond the first one would probably not get to “travel” to an actual box-number and instead would fall victim to my point-cycle 7-Out intentions. 

On the other hand, these roll-stats gave me some encouragement to at least try a 2-Point Molly Don’t (one Don’t Pass bet with full-Odds plus one Don’t Come bet backed with full-Odds when it travels to a subsequent box-number). 

Admittedly, this betting-method is not terribly inventive, however I was convinced that it might turn out to be reasonably profitable.

Juggling Chainsaws and Serving Several Masters

• When considering either a 2-Point or 3-Point Don’t-side Molly; a skilled dice-influencer has to juggle a number of conflicting factors that either play into and support your efforts or conspire and work against them.
• For example, once your DP-Point has been set, your objective is to 7-Out as quickly as possible.
• However, by making a Don’t Come wager on your first post-come-out roll, you want it to travel to a box-number instead of succumbing an immediate 7-Out.
•  At the same time, you don’t want that DC-bet to be traveling to your DP-Point since a DP-repeater results in an immediate loss…as well as a couple of suppressed laughs from fellow players.

 Since most Darkside dice-influencers use a 7-dominant dice-set or some permutation thereof during their point-cycle, it often throws off a fair number of craps numbers.  For the Darksider who is betting the Don’t-Come, that can mean an instant win when either the 2 or 3 shows up (and pays 1:1 even-money on your D-C wager), but it can also produce an instant D-C loser if the Yo-11 or 7-Out rolls.

Based on those sometimes conflicting and contradictory objectives, I took my 2-Point Molly Don’t to the Wisconsin tables.

 “Any Bozo Can Seven-Out” 

So I’m standing at the 20-player barge-table in Mohican North Star Casino, and it was my tenth hand with the dice during a decidedly cold (for everyone else) session, where it was taking just two or three or rarely four point-cycle rolls for me to intentionally 7-Out.  In fact, it was taking a similar number of rolls for every other shooter to UNINTENTIONALLY do the same thing. 

Yet I was the only Darksider among them 

There was a Ted Nugent-looking wannabe who was getting madder and madder with each hand-ending roll, especially when it was my intentional 7-Out that was plunging his bankroll deeper and deeper into the frigid depths.  After my most recent 7-Out win (and his corresponding loss), he said dismissively, “Any bozo can Seven-Out.”  My response was, “If that is the case, then why not MAKE money on it instead of LOSING money like you are doing?  Maybe you should have said, “Any bozo can LOSE money to a 7-Out…but it takes a little common sense to MAKE money from it”. 

Two more laps around the table continued to knock off every single Passline-bet save and except for a few occasional PL Come-Out winners.  It was also enough to totally banish all but three die-hard Rightsiders who themselves were down to the skeletal remains of their originally fat and sassy bankrolls. 

When it finally came down to just me and one other player, he intrepidly said he was going to join me on the Don’t Pass.  I asked him why he waited so long, and he said that he “had to play with these other fellas pretty much every session, and didn’t want to make them feel like he didn’t believe in them.”  My only reply was that “the price of trying to make everyone else at the table happy sure seemed expensive tonight”.  He nodded with resigned acknowledgement. 

Before we get into the results of my 2-Point Don’t-side Molly experiment, I want to share the briefest of summaries about the Wisconsin casinos that I played in during this leg of my Darkside journey:

Menominee Casino-Hotel in Keshena, about half-an-hour north of Green Bay, boasts one 16-foot table and one stand-up 10-player/one-dealer tub table.  Bet-minimums are usually $2 or $3 with 2x-Odds and $3-minimum Place-bets during the week.  Those minimums rise to $5 on the weekend.  The casinos sweat-tolerance bet-threshold for Rightsiders seems to be just over the $50/$60 per Place-bet mark, so Steep 5:1 Regressions like $110-Inside regressed to $22-Inside shouldn’t pose any sort of a problem.  For Darksiders, the sweat-tolerance bet-threshold is anything over the $150 in Odds level.

The 100-room Menominee Hotel is a very easy comp for players who spread wagers similar to those mentioned above.  Comp requirements for food at the Forest Grill restaurant is obviously quite a bit lower.

Mohican North Star Casino in Bowler, WI (smack in the middle of hunt-country) has a huge 20-player barge-table that is set at either $3 (weekdays) or $5 (weekends) with 2x-Odds.  Unfortunately it’s only open from 4 p.m. to 2 a.m.  This table takes a little bit of getting used to; with a backwall that deadens any impacts quite effectively. 

Mohican’s North Star Café is decidedly down-market (way down), and the casino does not have its own hotel; however there are a couple of Comfort Inn-type motels nearby.  Though the Star Club players card at first seems useless with meager food and accommodation offerings; their generous cash-vouchers and match-plays more than make up for that shortcoming.

Oneida Bingo & Casino is across from Austin Straubel Airport in Green Bay, and is the cleanest casino that I encountered on the Michigan/Wisconsin leg of this trip.  They have two very bouncy 12-foot $5 minimum, $200 max-bet, 3x-Odds craps tables that open at 12-noon and operate through to 4 a.m.  However, during the week, expect only one of their tables to be open (that is a mid-week theme you’ll see repeated often in Wisconsin casinos).  The attached Radisson Inn is in much better condition than I expected, and food at both the Standing Stone buffet and Shenandoah Restaurant is excellent.  Food and room comps are exceptionally easy to obtain.

Potawatomi Northern Lights in Carter, Wisconsin has one small, somewhat bouncy, stand-up tub table that opens at 10 a.m. and one large microfiber 16-footer that is often open only on the weekend. Minimum-bets are $3 on weekdays and $5 on the weekend.  Both tables offer 2x-Odds with a $200 maximum flat-bet.  Standard rules about both dice having to hit the back wall is scrupulously enforced, but not in an overbearing or anti-dicesetter sort of way.  I spent three solid days on their tub table. When I switched over to the big 16-footer on the weekend, it took some radical re-acclimation. Food choices are limited but passable.

St. Croix Casino & Hotel (also known as “Turtle Lake Casino” to the locals) is located in Turtle Lake (about 90 minutes north of Minneapolis/St. Paul and the same distance from Eau Claire); and has two 14-footers and one 16-foot, $5-min/$500-max 5x-Odds tables with at least one layout open 24/7/365…although during the slowest times, you’ll often see just half-a-table in operation.  “St. C” is the biggest casino in Wisconsin and draws crowds like flies to honey.  High-quality food and comfortable accommodation are the hallmark of this busy casino.

Hole In the Wall Casino in Danbury is run by the same Turtle Creek band as St. Croix Casino, and only offers craps four days a week (Thursday through Sunday).  They open the table at 6 p.m. on Thursdays, 4 p.m. on Fridays, and 2 p.m. on Saturday and Sunday.  Save for a few savvy players, the table sees very little action as soon as it opens.  That means the first hour or two of play offers plenty of shooting opportunities.  With a $3 minimum/$200 maximum bet, it is easy to work your victory-fueled wagers up to the table-max in pretty short order. 

The Loose Change Café offers a wide range of decent food while their Hole in the Wall Hotel (it’s really a small 46-room motel) is plain but comfortable.  Comps initially lag behind your actual table-play by several hours if not half-a-day.  Once their computer system catches up, freebies are easily forthcoming.

Lac Courte Oreilles (LCO) Casino-Lodge in Hayward offers craps only on Wednesday through Sunday starting at 6 p.m. and running through to 2 a.m. on weekdays and 4 a.m. on weekends.  That’s the downside to playing at LCO.  The upside is the excellent table and the very accommodating staff who appreciate even the meagerest of tokes.  Since I showed up on a Tuesday, I spent the better portion of an entire non-playing day languishing in and around their cedar sauna. Table-rates are set at the Wisconsin-standard of $3-minimum/$200-maximum.

There are nine other casinos in Wisconsin that currently DO NOT offer craps, but a few more MAY offer it in the not-too-distant future.  They include Grindstone Creek Casino in Hayward, Whitetail Crossing Casino in Tomah, Rainbow Casino in Nekoosa, Mole Lake/Regency Casino in Mole Lake, Bad River Lodge Casino in Odanah, Ho Chunk Casino in Baraboo/Wisconsin Dells, Isle Vista Casino in Bayfield, Lake of the Torches Resort Casino in Lac du Flambeau, and Majestic Pines Casino in Black River Falls.

Summary of My 2-Point Molly Don’t Experiment

 Here’s a summary of how I did with this everything-that’s-old-is-new-again experiment:

Wisconsin-leg Duration: 12 days

Total Playing Time:  50.3 hours – This includes actual at-the-table time only.  On crowded tables where I kept my spot “reserved”, I often used the between-shooting-opportunity interludes to enjoy a meal or go for a walk.

Type of Bets: $25 Don’t Pass w/Full Odds, Plus one $25 Don’t Come w/Full odds Bet-making Notes: If an “instant” Don’t-Come winner (2 or 3) or loser (11 or 7) was thrown, did  not replace the bet during that hand. This summary includes the roll-stats that pertain only  to this experiment, and do not reflect any C-O or D-P income.

Total Hands thrown: 143

Instant Don’t-Come Winners: 21 – This is the number of instant even-money D-C winners that were paid if a craps-2 or craps-3 rolled. They represented 14.68% of my D-C bet “attempts” which is probably attributable to the high preponderance of on-axis 2’s and 3’s with the horn-heavy point-cycle dice-sets that I use. Random-expectancy for the combined craps-2 and craps-3 is 8.33%.

Instant Don’t Come Losers: 13 bets lost to Yo-11 – 51 bets lost to 7-Out DP winners. This is the number of instant D-C losers that were lost when a Yo-11 or DP-winning-7 rolled. The Yo-11 outcomes represented 9.09% of my D-C bet “attempts”.  Random-expectancy for the Yo-11 is 5.55% The 7-Out D-C losers (but a winner for my DP line-bets) represented 35.66% of my D-C bet “attempts”.  Random-expectancy for the 7 is 16.66%.

Instant D-C Outcome Ratio: 64 instant losers vs. 21 instant winners. This represents a

3:1 ratio or of instant D-C losers-to-instant-DC-winners.

Total Instant Win from D-C: 21 wins x even-money $25 D-C payout = $525

This is the total revenue earned from instant D-C winners when a craps-2 or craps-3 rolled.

Total Instant Loss from D-C: 64 losses x $25 D-C wager =  (-$1600)

This is the total money lost to instant D-C losers when a Yo-11 or 7-Out DP-winner rolled.

Net-Loss Directly From D-C: (-$1075)

This is the overall net-loss from those instant D-C winners and losers.

Traveled D-C wagers: 58

This is the number of bets that survived the D-C and subsequently went behind a box-number.  They represent just 40.56% of D-C “attempts”, and at first blush looks pretty bleak in terms of the prospects for this experiment to emerge on the positive side of the dice-influencing ledger. 

Traveled D-C Wager Wins: 51

Traveled D-C Wager Losses: 7 

Traveled D-C Revenue:

Winners: $25 flat-bet portion of a traveled D-C bet pays even-money. $150 Odds-portion of traveled D-C bet paid an average of $96. In Wisconsin, max-permissible Odds vary. In each WI casino, I pushed the inverse allowable odds as high as the box or pit personnel would  allow. The average traveled D-C w/Odds winner paid $121. 51 traveled  D-C winners paid $6171.

Losses: $25 flat-bet portion of a traveled D-C bet plus $150 in average inversed lay-Odds

 (see above notes) equates to $175 per loss. 7 traveled D-C losers cost (-$1225).

Net-win from traveled D-C w/Odds = $4946

Revenue From D-C: $4946 from traveled D-C w/Odds minus $1075 from instant D-C

losses = $3871 

Total Hands thrown: 143

Average D-C Profit/Hand: $27.07

At first glance this does not look like a very good betting-method. 

• The 3:1 losers-to-winners ratio when the bets are sitting in the Don’t Come box is a very costly interlude and represents a –30% return-on-investment (a $1075 net-loss on $3575 in D-C wagers).
• On the other hand, the net-revenue from the traveled D-C wagers when backed with Odds, earned a 48% return-on-investment ($4946 profit on approximately $10,150 in traveled D-C w/Odds wagers).
• When combined, this equates to an overall net-profit of $3871 from this 2-Point Don’t-side Molly experiment, and provides a combined R.O.I. of 38% on the full Don’t Come w/Odds investment.
• I played 143 hands which produced an average of just $27 D-C profit per hand.

Complicating the low $27-per-hand revenue-stream was the fact that Wisconsin’s casinos have a modest flat-bet max of $200, however their bet-tolerance comfort-level is much, much lower than that.  In fact, I would vigorously counsel advantage-play Darksiders NOT to exceed the DP or DC bet amounts that I used during this experiment. 

If I had done this 2-Point Don’t-side Molly experiment in a more bet-tolerant jurisdiction (or one where higher Lay-odds were permitted); then I would have definitely raised my base D-C bet up to at least $50, if not $100 (along with the correspondingly higher inverse lay-Odds). 

• On the other hand, the upside to this little experiment was that the $27 average D-C profit per-hand was in addition to my DP w/Odds revenue which I didn’t include in any of the above calculations.
• When those two income-streams are combined the revenue generated by my “Game Within A Game” Come-Out profits, the brightness of the overall profit-picture improves markedly.

Frankly though, the outcome of this two-week experiment was quite enlightening insofar as showing how a high Horn-content point-cycle dice-set when combined with an intentionally low point-cycle Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio can make it quite difficult to make decent money off of Don’t Come wagers. 

However, what this research did show was that there is at least one traditional betting-method that cannot be completely dismissed out of hand when it comes to providing at least a little bit of additional per-hand profit from a frequently overlooked D-C source. 

Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. 

Sincerely,

The Mad Professor