Well, it really all depends on how choppy the tables are, and that determines how many times you get to start a C-T/S-L series of bets.

In looking back over my data-base for the past two years, it looks like it takes ~7 hours of “recapture time” if you set the “when-to-bet” bar quite high.  That is, if you are ULTRA-selective as to making SURE that the table is cool-trending or ultra-choppy; then it can take up to seven hours to recoup a $285 loss.  On the other hand, you have to realize that the tables are generally choppy or cool-trending AT LEAST 60% of the time.  Using that criteria; the recapture time (the time it takes to recoup your losses) can take as little as two hours. It really comes down to how often the table-trend indicates a reasonable betting-opportunity to apply this method.

It’s important that you give the method sufficient time to heal itself by recapturing those losses, and that you DON’T lower the threshold at which you decide to start betting on what you falsely convince yourself is now a choppy or cool-trending table. 

Don’t let your impatience lead you into temptation, or persuade you that the wrong time MIGHT possibly be the right time.

You have to be mindful that this is a method I use if I want to kill time while waiting for the dice to cycle back around to me. It IS a GRIND method that lets you stay at the table for hours upon hours, and even days upon days at a time, however, that is NOT where it is most effective. Rather, it is most useful when combined with your own skillful shooting, and as a way to keep some “casino required” bets in action during your non-shooting times.  It makes money on its own, but the impatient use of it on unqualified, non-choppy and non-cool-trending tables, is often cause for a misuse downfall.

The “comeback” is based on the profit that this method normally generates on a shooter-to-shooter choppy-table situation. When the table is choppy, and you are using this method, you’ll be grinding out about $13 per series. THAT is how it makes its comeback from a $285 session-loss, and how it steadily builds up profits on a session-to-session-to-session basis. HOPEFULLY, you are able to rack enough (offsetting-revenue-in-preparation-for-a-loss) profit BEFORE experiencing a $285 session loss-limit, but obviously that isn’t always the case.

As far as the “triggers” of when to STOP using it, well; when the table starts to turn warm, that is DEFINITELY the time to stop. How do you know this? Ah, the answer lies in HOW DEEP you are consistently going into your bet-progression before the shooter 7’s-Out.

If two or three or four shooters in a row are taking you to the third or fourth or fifth progression; then the table is DEFINITELY warming up because they are either making a lot of C-O winners and/or PL-Points. That is the indicator that the trend is turning from "C-T/S-L positive" to "C-T/S-L neutral" or even "negative". If that is the case, then you should be transitioning to the “DO” side of the equation (although you shouldn't be TOO anxious with your bets on ANY random-rollers).  In fact, if those three or four shooters are making three, or four or five PL-winners each, then it’s high time you bail on the C-T/S-L because the table trend is no longer cool or choppy, it’s getting downright warm in here.

As to your final question: on a $1 (nominal value) table, the earn-rate for the C-T/S-L Method is ~$8/hour.

Staging a Comeback

"Once again, thanks MP for all the ammo you gave me concerning Dodging Bullets. You mentioned in your FAQ's for the C-T/S-L - Part I   article that someone will take you for the full $285 every four hours. Is that if you stay at the same table?  Is this an average of the hours played for all the sessions using this method?"

The four-hour average is based on me using a fairly low threshold to begin the C-T/S-L sequence.  That is, I try to continually force the issue as far as what constitutes a choppy table.  

For me, the Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Method is in a semi-permanent in-casino beta-testing phase (and has been for about two years now), where I’m looking at its applicability and suitability to various other table situations; and then judging it on an ongoing basis as to how well it adapts to each of them.  In doing so, I’m willing to sacrifice a bit of my current C-T/S-L profitability for the sake of expanding its possible uses and horizons, or altering its risk/return ratio by tweaking certain activation/de-activation points.  

I’ll have more to say about these “Extended Uses” a little later in this article, as well as in the next FAQ P-3 piece.

In most cases, if I step up to the table, I'll do a quick survey of the players racks, to see how short-stacked they are.  This, along with the type and spread of bet, will give me a good indication of how the table has been performing over the past twenty minutes or so.  Depending on the sullenness of their faces and their general demeanor, I can get a pretty good handle on whether or not this offers a good enough "starting point " for the C-T/S-L.

Admittedly, that isn’t a very scientific basis for starting such a “numbers oriented” betting-method, however I’ve gotten pretty good at being able to read body-language and player disposition at a table.  Given that, I can often judge quite accurately on those observations alone, just how primed the table is (in terms of choppiness) for this method to be applied.

For most players who are considering the use of this method, my low-threshold approach IS NOT ideal.  It takes deep pockets, a tolerance for going deep into the bet-progression, and the confident knowledge that my own shooting is usually good enough to bail out any losses that I subject myself to by being too quick to use the C-T/S-L so often.  Also keep in mind, that I am actively searching for new strike-points, benchmarks or more accurate “triggers” that will activate my wagering with this method.

I always counsel players to start out VERY slowly and cautiously with it, until they are comfortable enough with the bet-amounts and are also confident enough in their own ability to discern a proper betting opportunity.

So, under "normal" circumstances using a higher threshold of choppiness before you begin the betting sequence, you should run into the "session wipe-out" about half as often as I do (about once every 8 hours compared to once every 4 hours).  It really comes down to qualifying the table-trend, and making sure that you aren’t trying to out-bet (out-smart) any Precision-Shooters or more-difficult-to-identify rhythmic-rollers who may be at your table.  In that case, you may choose to simply suspend your C-T/S-L betting until the dice are past any semi-skilled players.  If you are experiencing $285 session wipe-outs more often than once every 6 to 8 hours, then simply tighten your starting-point triggers a bit further.

HOW Does it Work

"MP, in ten words or less can you tell me why your C-T/S-L works.  I’ve tried it in the casino, and I found that it does work, but now I want to know why."

Quick, in ten words or less, describe what love is, and then prove it…just kidding.

Let’s start out with a couple of craps basics:

We both agree the basic odds of a “7” showing up at any given time in the hands of a random-roller is 1 in 6. 

The chance of a random-roller making multiple Point-winners in a row is as follows:

Ø     There is a 40% chance that a player will make his 1^st PL-Point.

Ø     There is a 16% chance that a player will make a 2^nd PL-Point in a row.

Ø     There is a 7% chance that a player will make his 3^rd Point in a row.

Ø     There is a 3% chance that a random-roller will make a 4^th winning PL-Point in a row.

Ø     There is a 1.2% chance that a player will be able to make his 5^th PL-Point in a row.

Ø     There is a 0.5% chance that a player will eventually make six PL-Points in a row.

On any given roll of the dice, there is ALWAYS  and ONLY a 1-in-6 chance that a “7” will roll, however that is not the complete picture.  It would be, if one and ONLY one roll determined the entire outcome for each hand, but that is not the case. 

Each roll is a SNAPSHOT.

Each hand is the entire MOVIE.

While the whole movie is made up of many individual pictures; you have to look at the totality of them to understand and PROFIT from the bigger picture, or in this case, the entire movie.

The chances of rolling a “7” at any given time is 16.66%.  That’s the single-roll snapshot of where the “7” fits into the expected-frequency of outcomes.   On it’s own, a 16.66% (1-in-6) chance of occurrence seems pretty tame.  However, if you’ve played the game of craps for more than ten minutes in your lifetime; you soon realize just how powerful that 16.66% expectancy really is.

Because of skew and volatility, the “7” won’t always show up like clockwork on each and every sixth roll.  That’s not how expectancy works.  Rather, we know that on average, it will show up that often; which means sometimes we’ll see a lot of them, and sometimes they will be rare. 

Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on which side you are betting with), they are never rare for very long.

That is because the cumulative odds dictate that it WILL appear sooner or later, and the longer you go without seeing one, the preponderance of it showing up increases exponentially.  To see that for yourself, take a look again at how difficult it is for a random-roller to make his first PL-Point, let alone his third, fourth and fifth PL-Point winner.  The more Points he makes, the more difficult it is to make the next one.  Though we expect the “7” once out of every six rolls, a random-rollers sometimes takes us deep into a hand where the cumulative odds are stratospheric.  Otherwise, we would often see players ROUTINELY making 30, 40, 50 or even 100 Passline-Points in a row.  I’m not talking about once a decade, I’m talking about once every couple of hours. 

Clearly that doesn’t happen, and there is an obvious reason it doesn’t happen.

The reason it doesn’t happen is because of the cumulative odds of the “7” NOT showing up for extended periods, or a player making many, many PL-Point winners in a row, is quite low.

Are the odds of that something that we can work with and possibly exploit?

On a choppy or cool-trending table, I say that it is something we can absolutely work with, and something we can DEFINITELY exploit.  That is precisely what my Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Method is designed to take advantage of.

Wait a minute…that explanation took more than ten words!

Okay, let’s try this.  The C-T/S-L Method works because:

Cumulative probability outweighs individual roll-expectation.

That’s only six words, so I’ll add:

Trends indicate…consecutiveness dictates.

Risk, Heart-Palpitations, and the Fifth-Stage of Betting

"MP, I LOVE your Choppy-Table Method, but I’ve got to tell you that it gives me heart-palpitations when I get to the $155 fifth-stage of the series.  Yes it works, yes it makes me money, but I also feel like my heart is going to pop out of my chest when I have to throw down $155 on the Don’t Pass, especially after losing $5, $15, $35, and $75.  What should I do?"

Just as this method is not appropriate for all table conditions, it really isn’t appropriate for all players either. 

For the risk-averse, the queasy of stomach, the weak of heart, or the short of bankroll; the C-T/S-L may not be appropriate.

As ESPN columnist Bill Simmons would say:

I was an extra 100 pounds and one hooker away from re-enacting the last 15 minutes of Chris Farley's "E! True Hollywood Story life."  For a lot of players, that pretty much describes how they feel about having to put out the prescribed larger bets while using this method.

You have to be properly financed and mentally prepared for this type and this level of betting action.  If your mind, heart and gut are not prepared for it; then your wallet shouldn’t be either.  If that’s the case, then a more conservative approach may be indicated by myself as well as your doctor.

Pittsburg Johnnie

"Hey Professor...Just wanted to thank you for all the work and good info on Irishsetters site...I am curious when was the last time you ran into Pittsburg Johnny?  I have been playing his/your DP-progression (L-O-N-G Leash Method) the last year and a half.  It’s amazing…I have had the best year since I started playing craps 5 years ago."