Gamblers love “systems”, and there has been a ton of them developed over the last century.
- Tracking, Counting and Charting methods trace multiple results, which then determine current bets.
- Regression methods rely on reductions of bets after a win, according to a set formula.
- Pressing and Parlaying methods rely on increasing bets after a win, according to a set formula.
- Progression, Martingale, Grand Martingale, and Avant Derniere methods are codified on when and how to the size each bet based on the previous outcome.
None of these systems or methods eliminate the casino’s inherent edge on bets.
HOWEVER, methods can affect the chances of winning or losing.
I have to assume that you are serious about making money at craps. So let’s look at some ways to increase your chances by using the good characteristics of these methods, and dropping the bad parts.
Before we actually begin, it’s important to note that unless you are a skilled Precision-Shooter, these methods are still somewhat risky. Some of them, more so than others. If you combine them with Precision-Shooting, then they provide a potential to become consistent profit-generators.
Just remember:
- The more money that you WANT to win, your chance of LOSING increases.
- If you are willing to settle for lower profits, your chance of success is higher.
- The higher the returns you seek, your odds of reaching them are lower.
If you follow those verities or simple truths, they will keep you out of a lot of trouble. On the contrary, if you ignore them, you will likely find yourself neck deep in a sink-hole filled with the rotting, fetid remains of decaying corpses who preceded you down the same ignorant path of casino destruction. So let’s take a fresh look at some old systems:
- Tracking works well on streaky tables where there is multiple “same sequence” wins.
- Charting works well if you are using a “delayed start” betting series.
- Counting gets us past the initial stage where most Pass Line bets lose.
- Progressions are especially attractive if you are looking for small but frequent profits.
- Regressions lock in a set amount of profit early in a hand.
- Pressing uses at least one unit of profit to increase a pre-existing bet.
- Parlaying uses ALL of the “win” profit to increase a particular bet.
- Martingale uses a “double-up” after a loss technique to win one-unit overall.
- Grand Martingale uses a “double-plus-one-unit” technique to win one-unit per loss.
- Avant Derniere uses the previous outcome as the basis for the next bet.
So how can we use any or all of these methods when we approach the tables? We simply apply them as needed along the way. How you apply them is up to you, but I’ll use a couple of examples of how and when I personally use them during play.
- Tracking or “Trending” is useful when you are looking to employ a particular method, or you want to find out what is happening at the table before you make a wager. While it is still true that each dice roll is independent of the last, each roll fits into a much larger equation. If you need full proof of that, I would invite you to read my article If Only I Knew Then What I Know Now It may open your mind as well as your eyes!
- Charting can be used where you want to use a betting series on a high-risk number like 11 or 12. For example, if can wait for twenty rolls without a “YO” showing, then start betting my “YO-Progression” as found in the Mad Professor’s Playbook. It can produce consistent profit, but it’s by-products includes ulcer-inducing, nerve-frazzling intervals while large amounts of YOUR money is in play and at risk
- Counting like the Captain’s 5-Count, gets us past the initial stage where most Pass Line bets lose. In fact, one-third of all hands do not get beyond the fifth roll after the Come-Out. That staggering number alone should at least give you pause to consider this method. Again, I combine it with other methods, where the best of each is used, and all else is rejected. Our goal is to get to the PROFIT, not to look pretty while we’re doing it.
- Progressions used judiciously can give small frequent wins, but also have a low but ever-present risk of total annihilation. There are several “grind” progressions in my Playbookarticle, as well as those found in my What Are You Doing When You Retire? article (we are trying to locate this article).
- Regressions lock in profit early in a hand, by starting out with one amount, say $30 each on the 6 & 8, and then after one hit, regressing both down to $12 each for a locked-in profit of $11. One other example would be “110 Inside”, where $30 is Placed on the 6 & 8, while $25 each is Placed on the 5 & 9. After one hit on any of those numbers, the entire bet is regressed down to $22 Inside, for a locked-in profit of $13. I also combine this with other methods as well.
- Pressing uses the “up as you win” philosophy. Usually one unit of profit that has just been earned is re-invested to increase that same bet. After initially regressing my Place bets after one hit to collect a locked-in profit, I will let that same Place bet or it’s “sister” number pay again before I press them by one unit each. Thereafter, I press those bets on every second hit. This Pressing method takes ever-increasing advantage of a hot roll without exposing undue amounts of your bankroll.
- Parlaying is not a method that I readily use, nor do I recommend it. However, in some cases other Precision-Shooters will parlay their Come-Out Pass Line winnings on the next roll. If they are excellent “Winner-7” throwers, then you can see their attraction to this particular bet. In 26 years of playing this game, I’ve Parlayed a bet no more than one dozen times.
- Martingale uses the old “double-up” after each loss. Although it’s not usually recommended, when this method is combined with a “delayed-start” Charting method, it can pay unusually high dividends. Table limits and bankroll restrictions are cause of the death-cry that this method will ALWAYS scream if it is played on a regular basis.
- Grand Martingale uses a “double-plus-one-unit” technique to win one-unit per loss overall. I LOVE this method, if it is used cautiously at a low-minimum, hight-limit table, provided you are amply nourished with cubic-yards of cash. When using it on even-money bets like the Pass Line or the Don’t-Pass, you actually look forward to each subsequent loss, because you know that when it wins, you will receive one unit of profit for every lost bet! Sounds great doesn’t it? But there is a major drawback. Long strings of losses do sometimes occur. The chance of losing six successive Pass Line or Don’t Pass bets is 1.70%. Low odds indeed, but it can still happen. Again, you can combine this method with a “delayed-start” Charting method to take better advantage of it. Alternatively, you can also combine it with the next method.
- Avant Derniere uses the previous outcome as the basis for the next bet. For example, if you were betting on the Pass Line and lost, your next bet would be on the Don’t Pass. This method avoids betting on the wrong side of a streak. It’s useless on choppy tables, but can save your hide if you are usually on the wrong side of a succession of losses, waiting for it to end. This method is usually combined with a Progression or Grand Martingale-type approach, and is usually very profitable.
I’ve tried to keep my explanations and examples as simple as possible. In actual play, when a random-roller is throwing the dice, the variations and permutations that I actually use are quite a bit more complex. I’ve never sat down to actually specify the how, when, where, what and why of my betting methods.
In a nutshell, my choice of betting methods and combinations, all start when I mentally track exactly what is happening at the table at the time. From there, I determine which method is most appropriate and likely profitable at that point. I alter and adjust as the situation changes, because there is a fluid conscientiousness-stream that is constantly flowing in my mind.
From my own experience, and all the knowledge that I have gleaned over the years, combined with these methods, random-rollers still only contribute about 5% to my total yearly earnings from craps.
For that reason, I have to rely on my own Precision-Shooting, and that of other skilled players for the other 95% of my income. And for THAT method, I paid for the most expensive dice-shooting course in this galaxy…right in the casino…at the tables…in real play…with MY money!
Now I KNOW why they call it GAMBLING!
Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
