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Part VI I
refer to multi-number wagers like Inside (5, 6, 8, and 9), Across (4, 5, 6,
8, 9, and 10), Outside (4, 5, 9, and 10), Even (4, 6, 8, and 10), Iron
Cross (5, 6, 8, and Field) and similar, as global bets, because
they are semi or fully-encompassing wagers that cover several numbers at the same time. In
the hands of a random-roller, NONE of those bets hold ANY merit whatsoever,
and frankly NONE of your money should be ventured on ANY of them if you want
your advantage-play bankroll to stay in positive-expectation territory. Conversely,
each one of those bets holds their own special place in the world of dice-influencing. Your task as an advantage-player, is to figure out
how good your own shooting ability is; and then determine which bets are best suited to
those talents. Your
Betting Should Be Dictated By How Good Your Shooting Is
Frankly,
the lions share of your betting-weight should be wagered on your top one or two
Signature-Numbers.
Ø
Your
S-Ns are determined by the particular dice-set that you use and the consistency in
which you throw. I refer to that
influence-rate/dice-set consistency as Foundation Frequencies.
Ø
The
more consistent your toss is, the more dominant certain dice-outcomes will be when you are
using a given dice-set. Ø When you spread your money across a wider range of bets, your volatility decreases but your bet-exposure increases.
Ø
By
far, the absolute best way to exploit your advantage over the house is to put your
money where your greatest advantage is.
Ø
If
you reduce the amount of money that you wager on your strongest-edge bet just so
you can wager on additional numbers; then you may be unfairly diminishing your
profit.
Ø
That
means you may unwittingly be surrendering more profit in favor of more frequent
hits on a wider range of bets and still emerge from that transaction with less
net-revenue than your shooting-skill deserves. That
sort of deleterious betting problem is not foreign to anyone who has sought to exploit
their dice-influencing edge over this game. However
that is precisely WHY the carefully considered use of Initial Steep Regressions is
so important to intermediate and advanced Precision-Shooters.
Ø
The
ISR betting-formulas that we are discussing in this series solve that age-old problem with
all kinds of new profit-making opportunities. In
Parts Two,
Three,
Four
and Five,
we validated the use of Initial Steep Regressions on the Inside-bet in a way that
permits even a modestly skilled dice-influencer to satisfy both the desire of a
satisfyingly high hit-rate with the necessity of a fully utilized SRR-based
profit-generator. Your
shooting-skill dictates where your money should be wagered.
As such, a savvy player has to consider his skills in context with a wide
range of betting choices. The prudent use of
SRR-based ISRs can often delineate and more fully exploit those choices within a
global-bet context. All-Across
Bets
In
a random outcome game, Across-the-Board or All-Across wagers constitute
66.67% of all possible outcomes. The
Across-bet covers all of the box-numbers (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10). There
are:
Ø
Three
ways to make a 4, and it pays 9:5, unless you buy it, in which case it pays out at 2:1,
less the vigorish.
Ø
Four
ways to make a 5, and it pays 7:5.
Ø
Five
ways to make a 6, and it pays 7:6.
Ø
Five
ways to make an 8, and it pays 7:6.
Ø
Four
ways to make a 9, and it pays 7:5.
Ø
Three
ways to make a 10 and it pays 9:5, unless you buy it, in which case it pays out at 2:1,
less the vigorish. Therefore,
Across-the-board numbers constitute 24-out-of-36 (66.67%) of all
randomly-expected outcomes, and their average weighted-payout is $7.50 per hit. Your
Mileage May Vary
As
your Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio (SRR) improves, the appearance-rate for the 7 declines. Ø The less the 7 shows up within a given sampling-group, the more other non-7 outcomes will take its place.
Ø To give your dice-shooting skills the best opportunity to prosper, you should determine exactly which numbers are taking the place of those diminishing 7s.
Ø
In
the samples that Ive used in this series, Ive evenly spread those replacement
numbers across the entire outcome spectrum.
Ø
As
such, your expectancy-chart may look somewhat different than the generic ones here; so for
even more betting-accuracy, you may want to tailor your wagers to more closely match up
with your actual numerically-significant roll-sample outcomes.
Although
your Sevens-to-Rolls ratio is not the only dice-influencing metric that matters,
many dice-influencers often underutilize it when it comes to shaping and structuring
betting-methods and their related same-bet, press or regress trigger-points. How
many incredibly skilled Precision-Shooters do you know who have endured years of suffering
through the Please lawrd, just gimme one more hit syndrome of
improperly timed same-bet, press or regress trigger-points.
Sooner or later, most players come to realize that it is NOT their shooting
that is needlessly keeping them on the break-even or minor losing side of the ledger
it
is THEIR BETTING. If
you ignore or dismiss your SRR-rate; you are not only overlooking your best indicator of
average hand-duration, but you are also rejecting the best gauge by which to successfully
structure a consistently productive multi-number betting-method. Intelligent
advantage-players arent so quick to turn their backs on such an important
profit-patterning benchmark. If
you ignore what your skill-based sevens-appearance-rate is trying to tell you; then
dont be surprised if consistently produceable profit ignores you too. The
7 is the omnipresent roll-ender for every Rightside bettor.
You
can pretend that its not there, and you can hope that it never shows
up, and you can wish that your hand will last long enough to show a net-profit; but
if your betting-method structure doesnt recognize the 7s appearance-rate or
the resultant roll-duration decay-rate that accompanies your SRR; then dont be
surprised or disappointed if your skill-based profits continue to be far lower than your
dice-influencing abilities indicate they should be. How
often the 7 appears is dictated by your skill-based SRR-rate.
The
randomly-expected SRR-rate is one-in-six (16.67%) on any given roll, while a novice
SRR-7 shooter only has to contend with a 14.29% per-roll (1-in-7) chance of it appearing. At first glance that 2.38% difference looks
pretty small, but it actually equates to a very exploitable 14% disparity between a random
SRR-6 shooter and a SRR-7 dice-influencer. Within
that small margin of improvement over random is where dice-influencers can find all kinds
of money, but you have to properly wager your money on that
difference for it to do you any good. Anatomy
Of An Across-Wager
Using
an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) permits even the most modestly skilled dice-influencer
to achieve a net-profit much sooner and on a much more consistent basis than if he is
making comparably spread flat-bets. If,
for example, you flat-bet $32-Across (neither increasing nor decreasing your wager at any
point during the point-cycle of your hand); then you need to make five successful
Across-Number hits BEFORE reaching net-profitability.
As
attractive and enticing as the idea of covering all of the box-numbers is, with the
Across-bet constituting fully two-thirds (66.67%) of all possible random-outcomes; the sad
fact is that a random-roller still has a greater chance of 7ing-Out than he does of
hitting enough box-numbers for that bet to pay for itself on a consistent basis. That is the nature of ANY randomly-based
bets that you make. However,
in the hands of a modestly skilled dice-influencer, the Across-bet can be a steady profit
contributor to your bankroll.
As
with Inside-wagers, your Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio largely determines the average
roll-duration of your Across-bet hand. At the
same time, your SRR also determines the decay-rate of your validated edge against any
given bet and therefore establishes the optimal time to regress your initially large bet
into a smaller, lower-value one.
As
I just mentioned:
Ø
If
we know how long our hand generally stays in positive-expectation territory for the
Across-Number bets we are making; then we can easily determine the ideal time to regress
them from their initially high starting-value.
Ø
The
closer your SRR is to random; the faster you will have to regress your bets in order to
have the greatest chance of making a profit during any given hand; and obviously the
higher your SRR is, the more time (as measured by the number of point-cycle rolls) you
will have in which to fully exploit your dice-influencing skills.
Therefore,
the expected roll-duration hit-rate for the all-encompassing Across-number wager has to
factor in the modified sevens-appearance-rate for any given SRR; which in turn then
produces the optimal regression trigger-point for each skill-level.
Ø
Once
we know where that positive-to-negative transition point is, we can use it as the
trigger-point in which to optimally regress our large initial wager down to a lower level. In doing so, we concurrently lock-in a net-profit
while still maintaining active bets on the layout in the event that our hand-duration does
exceed and survive that positive-to-negative transition point, as it often will. A
Practical Comparison
Lets
look at how this works when we compare flat-betting $160-Across versus the use of an initial
$160-Across wager that is steeply regressed to $32-Across at the appropriate trigger-point.
I
deleted any further references to SRR-6 random betting in the following charts simply
because it always remains in negative-expectation territory. The
following ISR chart utilizes the optimum SRR-based trigger-point at which the
Large-bet-to-Small-bet regression should take place.
Heres
a comparison between flat-betting versus the use of an Initial Steep Regression:
While
regression-betting still enjoys a wide return-on-investment advantage over flat-betting;
that gap actually narrows as your SRR improves. Ø By using a Steep Regression to lock in a quick profit while our wagers are still in positive-expectation territory, and still permitting a much-reduced set of post-regression wagers to stay in place once our roll-duration surpasses that point; we get to benefit from the best of both worlds.
Ø
By
using an Initial Steep Regression (ISR), we derive profit from the fattest
positive-expectation portion of our point-cycle, while our newly reduced lower-value bets
remain in action when our hand exceeds its expected average duration, as it often will. Using
Different Steepness Ratios
Ø
The
steeper the regression-ratio is; the higher, earlier and more often a net-profit
will be secured.
Ø
The
shallower the regression-ratio is; the less frequent and lower our net-profit will
be.
Take
a look at how various steepness ratios affect your profitability.
As
your SRR-rate improves, so does your return on investment, even when you are using a
shallow 2:1 regression ratio.
Again,
as your SRR improves over random, the higher your rate of return will be. Obviously, the better funded your session bankroll
is, the better you can take full advantage of your dice-influencing skills. It
is important to note that each SRR-level forces a different bet-reduction trigger-point. While the SRR-7 shooter has to immediately regress
his large initial bet after just two hits; the SRR-8 dice-influencer can reasonably keep
them up at their initial large size for the first three point-cycle rolls before having to
steeply regress them. Further to that, the
SRR-9 Precision-Shooter can keep his big bet out there for four hits before regressing it
to a smaller value.
Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables
and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor
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