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How To Get THERE from HERE

Part 10


Some players bet with more mental certainty on negative-expectation random-rollers than they do on their own validated positive-expectation bets.

Think about it.

When it comes to betting on random-rollers, most dice-influencers have a certain pattern that they follow when it comes to wagering on negative-expectation situations. If they lose a bet on a R-R, their next R-R bet will still be pretty much of the same size and scope as the one before, and R-R bet after that one will also be pretty much of the same size and scope too.

They may not bet large amounts of money, but the random-roller bets that they do make are done with large amounts of mental certainty.

Mental certainty, in this case, is not about whether you think a bet will win or lose; but rather the amount of conviction and confidence you have in making the bet itself.

If your standard R-R bet is a $12 6 and 8 Place-bet; then there’s probably very little fear when it comes time to actually put the chips down on the table. Though you don’t know ahead of time whether it will win or lose; you accept the fact that you are making a negative-edge bet, and in doing so, you make it with a high level of conviction and a low level of stress.

Compare that to how you feel when it comes time to bet on your own hands.

How much mental certainty do you have when it comes to making a positive-expectation bet on your own validated advantage-play dice-influencing skills?

Do you make those wagers with a bit of hesitation...thinking perhaps that you should be putting a little more money out there?

Or do you feel some anxiety in terms of worrying more about the money that you are putting on the table instead of the actual task of influencing the dice in a positive way?

As precision-shooters, it is important that we not screw up our advantage-play priorities.

We need to know that the bets we make (when the dice are in our hands), are the ones that are best matched to our current skills.

We also have to uphold and support that knowledge with a level of betting-confidence that parallels the consistency of our skills.

If our betting-confidence or our shooting-confidence vacillates and is easily spoiled by one or two not-so-good hands, and our bet-decisions waver with uncertainty and trepidation; then it’s likely that our shooting will also reflect that fear and apprehension.

That can't be a good thing in terms of producing great results.

On the other hand, if we’ve validated our actionable edge over the house with both at-home and in-casino verification; then our betting-confidence should stay bouyant despite one or two non-productive hands, and therefore we should be betting on our own hands with a high level of conviction and a low level of stress, just like when we bet lower amounts of money on random-rollers.

In fact, betting on yourself should be way less stressful than betting on random-rollers. One is negative-expectation and the other is positive-expectation, but looking at the way some people bet with trepidation on their own advantaged hands and without fear on random-rollers; you'd think it was the other way around.

Though that doesn’t mean we should try to “shoot through” a shooting slump when our toss is in the toilet, it does means that we can make a small tactical retreat to fix the shooting problem before retackling the tables with as high a bet-confidence and mental-certainty as before.

It is critically important to understand that our edge over the house WILL NOT redeem itself on every toss in every hand and in every session. Rather, it will redeem itself over roughly the same range of rolls on which you first validated your edge.

So, for example, if you first validated your edge on let’s say the 6 & 8 Place-bet over a toss-sampling of 300 in-casino rolls; then you can expect that it will generally redeem itself to that same approximate level again over the same number of in-casino rolls. However, it also means that you’ll probably toss a number of totally crappy hands along the way…the same as you did when you were first validating the very same edge you are seeking to exploit right now.

The same ebb and flow of results that you endured during your edge-quantification/validation period is likely to roughly repeat itself during your edge-exploitation/profit-making stage too. It would be foolish to expect otherwise, and it would also be foolish to abandon your geared-to-skill wagers on your already validated advantage-shooting just because you threw a couple or three hands that stunk up the joint.

You have to bet with AT LEAST as much mental certainty as you do when you plunk your money down on a random-roller…and hopefully with an ever increasing amount of certainty as your validated-edge redeems itself on the growing number of advantaged-bets that you hit.

Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.




The Mad Professor

Copyright © 2006


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