Is One PowerNumber
Enough, or Does Betting it’s Ugly TwinSister Make Sense for Volatility
Control?
As diceinfluencers, we understand
the need to bet our money on the wagers where we have the biggest edge over
the casino, and less money or none at all on the ones of lesser edge or
where our edge is negative.
We also understand that a limited bankroll is the mortal enemy of our being
able to take proper advantage of our DI skills in an optimal way. That is,
we understand the deadly role that volatility can play in destroying
underfunded bankrolls even when we have a significant edge over the house.
That leads us to ask whether betting on our highestedge SignatureNumber is
enough, or whether it’s better to include its somewhatlesspretty (okay,
she’s sometimes downright homely) twinsister in our betting regimen.
When we talk about ‘twins’, we are really talking about the dicematched
pairing that all of the boxnumbers have. For example, the 4 and 10 are
twinsisters who each have a 3outof36 appearance rate, and they live
across from each other on the dice (for instance, if you flip over a 2/2
Hard4 outcome, you’ll see it’s 5/5 Hard10 twinsister, and if you flip
over a 4/6 Easy10 outcome, you’ll see its 3/1 Easy4 twinsister).
So each boxnumber has a twinsister (4 and 10, 5 and 9, 6 and 8).
Regardless of the diceset that you choose, each one will have an equal
amount of your potential powernumber outcomes as it will of its
notsoattractive twinsister.
Let me repeat that again:
ALL
dicesets, no matter which one you choose, will have the same number of your
potential powernumber outcomes on its axialfaces as it will of its ugly
twin.
For example:
~The onaxis faces of the V3 set
offer three 6’s as well as three 8’s.
~The V2 set as well as the P6 set
both offer the same number of onaxis 5’s as they do of onaxis 9’s.
~The X6 set and the Hardwayset both
offer the same number of onaxis 4’s as they do of the onaxis 10.
~Heck, even the S6 set offers no
onaxis 5’s nor does it offer any onaxis 9’s.
That means that if your powernumber is there then its ugly twinsister is
also right there, always close by in a supporting role for her
betterperforming sibling. The fact that she isn’t always in the shadow and
that she sometimes does come out to play is where the volatilityreduction
factor of betting the prettysister/uglysister in combination with each
other comes into play.
So, is it possible that your supermodel powernumber’s lessthantrophy
twinsister can add any happiness and enjoyment to your betting life…or at
least provide a less tumultuous, less dramatic, and less volatile ride along
the way?
I say she can.
I also say the cost of bringing your powernumber’s homely twinsister along
on a casino date is not as costly as you might think.
Let’s have a look:
To figure out the chance of a number
appearing before a 7Out, we take its appearancerate along with that of the
7, and divide it into the sum.
For example, the 5 has four ways of showing, while the 7 has six ways to
occur; so in relation to the 5, the 7 has a 6outof10 chance of showing up
before the 5.
Stated another way, the 7 has a 60% chance of showing up before a 5; however
the 5’s appearancerate does not mean it will show up the other 40% of the
time. Instead, we have to multiply the 7’s 60% appearancerate by the 5’s
4outof10 appearancerate (40%) to calculate our chances of rolling a 5
before a 7.
When we do that, we discover that our chances of getting one payinghit on
the 5 is only 24% in randomexpectancy. If for example, a randomroller
wants or needs two hits on the 5 before a 7Out; there is only a 9.6% chance
of that happening, and a 3.8% chance of getting three 5’s before a 7Out.
However, when we include the 5’s twinsister (the 9) into the bettingmix;
things start to look better in terms of hitrate.
The randomexpectancy chances of getting one payinghit on either the 5 or
the 9 (when they are bet in combination with each other) is now 48%. If a
randomroller wants or needs two hits (before a 7Out) on the 5 or 9 when
they are bet in combination with each other; there is a 19.2% chance of that
happening, and a 7.6% chance of getting three 5’s or 9’s or some combination
of the two before a 7Out shows up.
The same holds true for the twinsister 4 and 10, and the twinsister 6 and
8.
Have a look:
# of Hits 4 OR
10 4 AND 10
0 66.6% 33.3%
1 22.2% 44.4%
2 7.4% 14.8%
3 2.5% 5.0%
4 0.8% 1.6%
# of Hits 5 OR
9 5 AND 9
0 60.0% 30.0%
1 24.0% 48.0%
2 9.6% 19.2%
3 3.8% 7.6%
4 1.5% 3.0%
# of Hits 6 OR
8 6 AND 8
0 54.5% 27.3%
1 24.8% 49.6%
2 11.2% 22.4%
3 5.1% 10.1%
4 2.3% 4.6%
When you look at the randomexpectancy figures, you get a clear
sense of the role and volatilityreducing effect that adding the
‘uglysister’ into the Placebet combination with its better performing
powernumber twin can have in terms of increasing your hitrate and reducing
your volatility.
When you pair diceinfluencing with the reduced volatility of betting your
powernumber with its twinned butslightlylessattractive sister; you
quickly realize how a modestlybankrolled player can utilize its added
presence. Though this bringingalongtheuglysisteronadate does mean
that you are accepting a slightly lower returnoninvestment (ROI) on your
strongest edge powernumber; it also means you are using a very effective
method to control volatility.
Oh, and in case it hasn’t occurred to you yet; this whole bettingthetwin
approach can also substantially reduce the frustration level that many
players experience when their powernumber appears to go on an unannounced
vacation while it’s twin sister still shows up with a regularity that makes
you wonder why the heck you aren’t dating both of them at the same time…and
with each others openminded permission.
To control volatility, especially with a modest bankroll that is not
financed to the point of being able to endure the whipsaw backandforth
action of only having your money on ONE powernumber; you may choose to
accept a slightly lesser rate of return in exchange for a better chance of
getting any return at all during a given hand.
In order to enjoy less bankroll volatility,
Betting Your PowerNumber’s Ugly TwinSister Can Make a Lot of Sense
as long as you don’t mind biting a slightly lessadvantageous
bullet.
Good Luck & Good Skill at the
Tables…and in Life.
Sincerely,
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2006
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